2 surprise NY Mets players whose strong starts are the real deal, 1 bound regression

Tylor Megill is bound for regression

Tylor Megill is another starter who got an opportunity in the starting rotation after multiple injuries to other players. Megill did not have a poor 2024, working to a 4.04 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.31 WHIP while striking out 27% of opponents, posting a 9.5% walk rate, and a career-low 0.92 HR/9 ratio. However, it was only 78 innings of work, as Megill would only appear in parts of 16 games (15 being starts).

Megill has made four starts with a total of 19.1 innings pitched. His overall numbers are very good, as he owns a 1.40 ERA, 2.20 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP. Although Megill’s K% has dropped slightly from 2024 to 23.3%, his walk rate has taken a turn for the better, with an 8.1% BB%. He has also yet to allow a home run.

However, the chances of Megill posting an ERA similar to that of 2018 Jacob deGrom are unlikely at best. Megill’s expected numbers are all in agreement there is regression in his future. The right-hander has a 3.50 xERA, 3.41 xFIP, and 3.65 SIERA, all of which are at least two runs greater than his current ERA. He also does not have a track record of success over an extended period of time. From 2021 through 2024, Megill had a 4.56 ERA, 4.40 FIP, and 1.39 WHIP. 2023 is the only season he has pitched at least 100 innings in, with 126.1 frames, and he had a 4.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP that season.

But don’t take this as Megill is suddenly going to be a bad pitcher. Take it as Megill is probably more of a mid-3’s ERA pitcher, rather than a sub-2.00 ERA type starter. Many of his numbers are similar to that of Griffin Canning. Megill still has multiple things working in his favor. Aside from still solid ERA estimators, he is currently rocking a career-best 115 Stuff+ rating and has a barrel percentage of just 5.2% despite a poor 91.3 MPH exit velocity.