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2 reasons the Mets will pull off an improbable NLCS win against the Dodgers, 1 reason they won’t
The Mets haven't flatlined yet.
It’s Halloween season and the New York Mets look like the masked villain who just doesn't go away. A screwdriver to the eye. Burned in a house fire. Tossed into liquid hot magma. They keep producing sequels. We’ll get a Game 6 against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. How confident should Mets fans feel about the improbable happening?
Ignoring pixie dust, magic wands, and resiliency which all cannot be measured by science, there are factual reasons why the Mets could actually pull this off. Like everything in life, even chocolate, there are reasons to have some doubt. Consider it the bite of coconut.
The Mets are World Series bound because the Dodgers are going to burn through their pitching
A bullpen game for the Dodgers in Game 6 makes me want to beat them even more. How do you get to this point without enough starting pitching? The Mets, to their credit, didn’t have a single bullpen game in the regular season. A healthy starting rotation and depth ensured this. The game of baseball shouldn’t be played with a parade of relief pitchers. Understandably, starters are taken out early in their playoff starts. This is different from a convoy of failed starters.
As much fun as scoring 12 runs was, we should hope for something a little closer in Game 6. Make it so the Dodgers have to use all of their high leverage arms. Have Dave Roberts sweating. Make it a nail biter that costs innings in their pitcher’s arms.
The Mets handled the Dodgers relievers well in Game 2 when they went with a bullpen game. They were, however, able to forgo using some of their top arms.
A late comeback would be nice even if it does take a few years off our lives waiting to see it happen. The Mets have pummeled relievers throughout the playoffs. It seems to be a theme in this year’s postseason. No bullpen is safe.
After accomplishing this goal in Game 6, it’ll help set up for the Mets to get to work early against Walker Buehler in the deciding Game 7.
The Mets are World Series bound because the lineup has gotten hot
We finally got to see the true Mets offense in their Game 5 victory. They’ve been one of the better hitting teams throughout the postseason. Of course, many clubs didn’t get more than a handful of games to prove themselves. The at-home golfing Milwaukee Brewers lead the way at .263.
The Mets don’t have the same star power as the Dodgers lineup and yet they’ve equaled a lot of what they’ve done in the playoffs. They’ve hit three points higher (.246 vs. .243) and are only one point behind in OBP (.342 vs. .343). The main difference has been the power. Understandably, the Dodgers and their 18 home runs lead the way. Several already against the Mets this series, keeping the ball in the ballpark will be key. More on that after the jump.
Just because the Mets go up against a mighty foe doesn’t mean they can’t keep pace. Francisco Alvarez has gotten red hot at the plate. Starling Marte has been consistent all series. Although the overall numbers in the NLCS are unimpressive, Mark Vientos remains one swing away from putting up a crooked number.
The top-heavy Dodgers lineup is difficult to deal with. What has hurt them are guys in the bottom of the order like Enrique Hernandez and Andy Pages having big games. Don’t doubt some of those Mets hitters at the bottom returning the favor.
The Mets are getting eliminated by the Dodgers because they’re going to walk and hit home runs
No team has played more postseason games than the Mets this year. Because they’re on their third series, they’ve logged a whopping 12 games already. It may seem immense but it’s still only two more than the Dodgers have played. Having to go to the edge against the San Diego Padres helped tire them out a bit.
Despite playing in two fewer games, the Dodgers have scored one more run than the Mets this postseason. Yeah, our pitchers are to blame for some of this. Their 60 runs in 10 games is still terrifying. So are the 18 home runs they’ve hit versus our 12. Did I mention they’ve walked 49 times while Mets hitters are at 50?
Meatballs down the middle of the plate and ball fours in the other batter’s box are what could doom the Mets in Game 6. Sean Manaea will need to set the tone in this one. He pitched okay in his first start but those 4 walks can’t happen again. Their 36 walks as a team versus 47 strikeouts in this series is too extreme. Plus 9 home runs allowed versus 4 hit by the Mets, it’s going to be difficult to overpower the Dodgers in their ballpark two more times with no margin for error.
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