2 reasons NY Mets fans should buy into Christian Scott, 1 to hold your cash (for now)

Christian Scott earned his first MLB win on Saturday in his 16th try. The New York Mets had won a few times in the past when he started, but adding enough length or pitching well enough to leave when the team was ahead was a problem.

Two starts in a row against the Miami Marlins we can consider successful, he’s now 1-0 with a 2.97 ERA. The .228 batting average against him is one point better than what Freddy Peralta has delivered with the earned run average about a half-run better.

Too soon to declare anything definitive with Scott, there are two reasons why you should buy into him and one more to hold your cash.

Are you buying into Christian Scott?

Buy: You can’t argue with the results

Now 7 starts deep, tied for the fourth most on the Mets roster, we have a large enough sample to pass some judgment. Inefficient with his pitch counts, largely due to the number of walks and hit batsmen, only 3 of his 7 starts this year have included 15 batters retired, the 5 inning minimum to earn a win.

Coming off of Tommy John surgery and not asked to be the team’s savior, we can expect the Mets to slowly push him a little harder moving forward. He was yanked in his debut after 1.1 innings of 5 walk baseball and no hits. He didn’t exceed 89 pitches until his first start against the Marlins. On Saturday, lasting the full 5, Scott gave the Mets a modern quality start with 1 earned run in his 5 innings. Coming on 96 pitches, there’s room to improve for sure but the sub-3.00 ERA is impossible to argue.

Hold Your Cash: His best and longest starts have come against the Marlins

It’s suggested hitters will perform better once they’ve seen a pitcher again. The Mets made the most of their familiarity with Max Meyer by going from 7 innings of 1-hit ball to scoring 6 earned runs against him in 6 innings. Scott was maybe a little better in his second performance against the Marlins. That’s the good.

The bad? It’s the Marlins. We need to see Scott pitch like this against more threatening lineups. About average in runs scored and well-below it in terms of home runs, Scott passed the test of holding major league teams at bay. Next up is for him to convince us he’s worth the bet by excelling against a scarier offense. The San Diego Padres, the next projected team he could pitch against, won’t be it.

Buy: His peripherals might be even better

Scott might actually be better than his 2.97 ERA says. He has given up only one home run in the majors. He’s in the 98th percentile in barrel%, 93rd in hard-hit%, and combined with his results proving there’s something to metrics like these.

Only because he walks too many and doesn’t keep the ball on the ground are some of his expected statistics worse than you might expect. Secondary pitches with batting averages against below .200 and a fastball up to 95.6 vs. 94.2 in 2024, Scott is on the ascent. Buy into him now before a mom influencer posts something about him on Instagram and they all run out.

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