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2 Mets free agents who are a must to re-sign, 1 who actually isn't a good fit to return
The Mets should make these two free agents a top priority to return next year.
The New York Mets had a ton of players hit free agency at the start of the off-season. Many of the players who are now on the open market were critical members of their 2024 team, so letting some walk would be a hard pill to swallow. However, there are a few specific free agents the Mets should absolutely retain. Today, let's identify two free agents the Mets should bring back into the fold, along with one they should let walk to another team.
The Mets need to re-sign Sean Manaea
The Mets had five starters make at least 15 starts last year, but only two have a contract for 2025. If the Mets resign any of their starting pitchers who are entering free agency, it should be Sean Manaea. The veteran left-hander is coming off his best season since the Oakland Athletics traded him away after the 2021 campaign.
Manaea pitched a career-high 181.2 innings, working to a 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. He struck out just under a quarter of opponents with a 24.9% K% while also carrying a roughly league-average 8.5% walk rate. His 1.01 HR/9 rate was also slightly better than average, as was his average exit velocity (88.6 MPH) and barrel rate (7.5%).
Manaea made a ton of changes in his game from 2023 to 2024. His arm angle dropped from 28 degrees with the San Francisco Giants in 2023 to 22 degrees in 2024. Manaea's four-seamer had been his primary pitch in 2022 and 2023. But his sinker became his go-to offering for the first time since 2021. Not only did his sinker become his most used offering in 2024, but it returned with more movement. Manaea's sinker averaged out with 22.7 inches of vertical drop with 16 inches of arm-side break, compared to 20.1/13.9 inches in '21.
The sinker wasn't Manaea's only pitch that saw a change. His sweeper also became an integral part of his arsenal while averaging out with 44.1 inches of drop and 12.9 inches of glove-side break. In 2023, he only averaged 40.6 inches of drop and 10.5 inches of break. But Manaea had to sacrifice some velo in order to achieve this, going from about 80 MPH to 77-78 MPH.
Manaea is expected to make $60 million on a three-year deal ($20 million AAV), per MLB Trade Rumors' estimation. That's a decent price for a pitcher with the ability to put up #2-3 caliber numbers. The Mets definitely need a durable starter like Manaea. His durability, along with his solid numbers, make him a great rotation anchor.
The Mets need to re-sign Pete Alonso
Re-signing Pete Alonso should be one of the Mets' top priorities this year. The four-time all-star has one of baseball's best sluggers since making his debut in 2019, and winning Rookie of the Year. If the Mets bring back any of their players who hit free agency, then Alonso should take priority over any other player.
Alonso batted .240/.329/.459 with a .340 wOBA, and 122 wRC+. The Polar Bear had a down year in the power department by his standards. His 34 home runs and .219 isolated slugging percentage were both career-low marks (outside of the 2020 season). Alonso struck out 24.4% of the time, but carried a healthy 10% walk rate through 695 plate appearances.
This now marks five seasons in a row where Alonso has gone yard at least 30 times (not including 2020). In three of those seasons, the slugger hit 40+ dingers. There is only one other player with more home runs since the start of the 2019 season, and that's crosstown rival Aaron Judge.
Alonso has never put up Gold Glove-caliber defensive numbers at first base. But he had one of his worst seasons with the leather this year. Alonso had -3 defensive runs saved but a career-worst -8 outs above average. However, Alonso was only one year removed from his best defensive season when he had +6 DRS and only -1 OAA during the 2023 season.
The Mets should bring Alonso back because they don't have a great internal answer if he leaves. If Alonso waMets'the Mets' best in-house option would likely be to move 2024 breakout star Mark Vientos to first base and let Ronny Mauricio and/or Brett Baty take most of the reps at the hot corner. Of course, the Mets could also sign another player or pursue a trade, but Alonso is a familiar face. He may not be cheap, but he shouldn't be a problem for the Mets. The Polar Bear should return to Queens next year.
The Mets should let Jesse Winker walk away
If the Mets sign any left-handed hitting outfielder this off-season, it should be Juan Soto, not Jesse Winker. Winker opened the year with the division rival Washington Nationals, where he put up some quality numbers. In 379 plate appearances, Winker batted .257/.374/.419 with a .350 wOBA and 125 wRC+. Winker's .162 isolated slugging percentage and 22.2% K% were slightly better than the league average, but the corner outfielder walked at a hearty 14% rate.
The Mets acquired Winker nearing the trade deadline for pitching prospect Tyler Stuart. But the numbers were not nearly as good as in the Nation's Capital. Winker slashed .243/.318/.365 through 129 plate appearances in NY. He cut his K% down significantly to 17.1%, but his walk rate plummeted to just 7.8%. He also saw a decrease in power production with a .122 isolated slugging percentage. Winker finished out his New York Mets tenure with a .303 wOBA and 97 wRC+.
It doesn't help that Winker's defense in the outfield is borderline unplayable. Winker had -11 outs above average in just 670.2 innings, tied with Teoscar Hernandez for the third-fewest among outfielders. This is par for the course for Winker, given his career OAA of -41. Winker ranked dead last in outfield jump as well. Winker has an above-average arm, but that's about it.
Underlying numbers also do not paint an optimistic picture for Winker. He was below the 50th percentile in each of expected batting average (.245) and slugging percentage (.384), barrel rate (7.6%), and exit velocity (88.6 MPH). The only noteworthy batted ball-based stat Winker was above average in was xwOBA at .329. Those numbers certainly do not inspire confidence when the bat is the only attraction to Winker.
Mets fans should appreciate Winker's Postseason performances, but it's time to move on from him. The Mets need a better hitter than Winker, and what he did with the Mets during the regular season, along with his underlying statistics, it's best if the Mets explore other options. Once again, the only bat-first lefty slugger the Mets should be setting their sights on is Juan Soto.
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