2 crafty NY Mets free agent signings for the bullpen to make, 1 flashier addition to avoid

The Mets should avoid Kirby Yates

Kirby Yates is coming off a strong rebound season where he had a 1.17 ERA, 2.50 FIP, and 0.83 WHIP in 61.2 innings with the Texas Rangers. He served as the team’s closer, saving 33 games. Although Yates struggled to limit walks with an 11.8% free pass rate, he struck out over a third of opponents with a 35.9% K%. Yates was not home run prone either, as his HR/9 clocked in at 0.44.

Yates had great numbers, but there are red flags that make him a pitcher the Mets should be wary of. Yates had just a .168 batting average on balls in play. It is the lowest mark of his career by far, and his career average BABIP is still .270. Sure, his 4.1% barrel rate is the lowest he’s posted since his 2019 all-star season, but his 87.5 MPH exit velo from 2024 is only slightly better than his career average. Yates induced more flyballs, but his HR/FB ratio went from 8.6% with the Padres in 2018-2019 to just 5.9% this year.

Yates also saw a major dip in overall pitch quality. Stuff+ pinned Yates at 104 in 2023 with the Braves. That fell to just 97 this past year. 2024 was Yates’ first productive season on the mound since 2019, and he is now entering his age-38 season. Not only was this his first effective season since then, but he was only truly healthy in just one of his prior four seasons entering 2024.

Sure, there are relievers who are effective into their late-30s. But there are enough red flags that should cause concern for the Mets and pursue other options. MLB Trade Rumors projects Yates to make $14 million (alibet on a one-year deal), but the Mets can get less risky relievers for less. The Mets should look for a safer bet than Yates. Between his age, drop in pitch quality, extremely low BABIP despite relatively small changes in batted ball rates, and recent performance, the Mets should be able to find a more reliable reliever than Yates.