Trade for Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo
Jesus Luzardo’s 2024 season did not go to plan. He missed most of the season due to a stress reaction in his lower back. The Southpaw’s season ended in mid-June when he was placed on the IL and was eventually moved to the 60-day IL in August, effectively ending his season. When Luzardo took the mound, the results weren’t pretty either.
Luzardo only pitched 66.2 innings, working to a 5.00 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP. Luzardo had a roughly average 8% walk rate but a below-average 1.26 HR/9 rate. Luzardo’s K% was approaching 30% between 2022 and 2023 but dipped to a meager 21.2% this year.
But Luzardo had an outstanding 2023 campaign. During that year, he pitched a career-high 178.2 innings, working to a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. He carried a modest 7.4% walk rate and 1.11 HR/9 but struck out 28.1% of opponents. His K% was in the top ten of starting pitchers in ‘23, ranking just behind the Mets’ own Kodai Senga.
The Mets need some starting pitching badly. They had three starters make 30+ starts last year, each of which had an ERA+ of 105 or greater. All three are now free agents. Luzardo is a prime rebound candidate. He is under control through the 2026 season, and MLB Trade Rumors predicts that he’ll earn $6 million in arbitration.
Between Alonso, Hernandez, and Luzardo, that is an estimated $51 million, just under $5 million more than what Soto is projected to get in free agency this winter (on an AAV basis). Only about $5 million more will not deter the Mets from signing or trading for these three players, if they happen to not sign Juan Soto.