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2 free agents and 1 trade candidate to go after if the Mets miss out on Juan Soto
The Mets should pivot their attention to these players if Juan Soto signs elsewhere.
The New York Mets are one of the top suitors for Juan Soto. The slugger just wrapped up an MVP-caliber campaign with the New York Yankees, batting .288/.419/.569 with a career-high 41 home runs and 180 wRC+. This performance with the stick earned him third place in MVP voting, behind teammate and AL MVP winner Aaron Judge and Kansas City Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr.
Soto is one of the best free agents of all time. The Mets could definitely use an upgrade in an outfield corner, and signing Soto would bring one of the best hitters in baseball to Queens. But the Mets are far from the only team going after Soto. The Yankees want to bring him back into the fold, their inter-division rival, the Boston Red Sox, could make a play for Soto, and the Los Angeles Dodgers cannot be ruled out either. There’s a very real chance that the Mets do not sign Soto.
If that happens, the Mets can use the money they could have spent on Soto by acquiring other players who will still be very productive. MLB Trade Rumors currently projects Soto to earn just over $46 million per year over 13 seasons. So, sticking around $50 million, let’s look at two free agents, along with a trade candidate the Mets can pursue as alternatives if they miss out on Juan Soto. (Note that these salary projections come from MLB Trade Rumors and their free agent predictions and arbitration projections)
Re-sign Pete Alonso
Resigning Pete Alonso should be a no-brainer. Not only has Alonso been one of baseball’s best power hitters since breaking into the league in 2019, but the Mets also do not have a good internal replacement, and Alonso is the best first baseman on the free agent market. He could be the stalwart 1B/DH for the Mets for years to come.
Alsono batted .240/.329/.459 with a .340 wOBA, and 122 wRC+. The slugger had a down season in the power department by his standards. Both his home run total of 34 and .219 isolated slugging percentage were career lows. He drew walks at a healthy 10.1% rate, along with a mediocre 24.4% strikeout rate.
But Alonso hasn’t lost any raw power. Both his 89.8 MPH exit velocity and 13% barrel rate are similar to his career averages of 90.1 MPH and 13.8%, respectively. Alonso had a .474 xSLG%, which was in the 82nd percentile of batters this year. His 18.4 HR/FB ratio was uncharacteristically low, as his career-average HR/FB ratio sits at 22.1%.
On the defensive side of the ball, Alonso only had -3 defensive runs saved and -8 outs above average. It was one of his worst years with the glove, but he is only one season removed from his best season. In 2023, Alonso had +6 defensive runs saved with only -1 OAA.
MLB Trade Rumors pin Alonso signing a five-year, $125 million contract this off-season. That comes out to an AAV of $25 million a season. The only big downside to resigning Alonso is that he is already entering his age-30 campaign. But that shouldn’t be a huge deterrent to resigning Alonso. He already has the third most home runs in Mets’ franchise history with 226. He is only 26 away from breaking Darryl Strawberry’s record, so if the Mets bring him back, he’d assuredly break the record in 2025.
Sign Teoscar Hernandez away from the Dodgers
The Dodgers signed Teoscar Hernandez to a one-year contract last off-season. Even though he signed for $23.5 million, the deal turned out great for both the Dodgers and Hernandez. The slugger had one of the best seasons of his career in 2024 and will look to capitalize on that this off-season.
Hernandez turned in a .272/.339/.501 triple-slash. His 33 home runs were a career-high, as was his .229 isolated slugging percentage. Hernandez’s 8.1% walk rate was the most frequent rate he’s put up since 2019. But he regularly strikes out at a poor rate and went down on strike three 28.8% of the time. Still, his production amounted to a robust .360 wOBA and 134 wRC+ across 652 plate appearances.
Hernandez’s underlying numbers were also outstanding. He was in the 83rd percentile of xwOBA and the 91st percentile of xSLG%. The slugger consistently ranks among the best in barrel rate. This year, he was in the 91st percentile of barrel percentage at 14.9%, the tenth best in the league, and ahead of Bobby Witt Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Yordan Alvarez, just to name a few.
Hernandez split his time between left field and right field for the Dodgers. He was a poor defender in left with -8 DRS, a +1.6 UZR/150, and -11 OAA in just 871 innings. But over in right field, Hernandez put up +5 DRS, a +17.9 UZR/150, and only -1 OAA in 436.1 innings. Hernandez was in the 70th percentile of arm strength, so he can play either outfield corner, but is likely best suited for right field.
MLB Trade Rumors estimates that Hernandez will sign a three-year deal worth $60 million, reaching an AAV of $20 million. If the Mets somehow lose out to another team on Soto, this should be the outfielder they immediately pivot toward. Hernandez consistently hits for a good amount of power and is an upgrade over Starling Marte.
Trade for Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo
Jesus Luzardo’s 2024 season did not go to plan. He missed most of the season due to a stress reaction in his lower back. The Southpaw’s season ended in mid-June when he was placed on the IL and was eventually moved to the 60-day IL in August, effectively ending his season. When Luzardo took the mound, the results weren’t pretty either.
Luzardo only pitched 66.2 innings, working to a 5.00 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP. Luzardo had a roughly average 8% walk rate but a below-average 1.26 HR/9 rate. Luzardo’s K% was approaching 30% between 2022 and 2023 but dipped to a meager 21.2% this year.
But Luzardo had an outstanding 2023 campaign. During that year, he pitched a career-high 178.2 innings, working to a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. He carried a modest 7.4% walk rate and 1.11 HR/9 but struck out 28.1% of opponents. His K% was in the top ten of starting pitchers in ‘23, ranking just behind the Mets’ own Kodai Senga.
The Mets need some starting pitching badly. They had three starters make 30+ starts last year, each of which had an ERA+ of 105 or greater. All three are now free agents. Luzardo is a prime rebound candidate. He is under control through the 2026 season, and MLB Trade Rumors predicts that he’ll earn $6 million in arbitration.
Between Alonso, Hernandez, and Luzardo, that is an estimated $51 million, just under $5 million more than what Soto is projected to get in free agency this winter (on an AAV basis). Only about $5 million more will not deter the Mets from signing or trading for these three players, if they happen to not sign Juan Soto.
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