1 reason the NY Mets are better than their record, 1 they’re worse, 1 they’re exactly what it says

It’s easy to put the 2026 New York Mets in a box. As a team 11 games below .500 through Memorial Day and eight games out of a wild-card spot, they’re pretty clearly a bad team. Right?

Maybe in some ways. New York has a 13.4% chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs playoff odds. Only one team in the National League has a worse record. But in other ways, 55 games – just over one-third of MLB’s 162-game season – is not enough to make a complete evaluation. No one should be more aware of that than Mets fans.

In May 2024, New York was 22-33 before winning 67 more games in the final two-thirds of the season. That team finished their year within two wins of a National League title. In contrast, last year, the Mets were 45-24 through June 12, good for the best record in baseball at the time. That team went on to a 38-55 record the rest of the way and missed the postseason by one game.

Are the 2026 Mets poised to turn things around like the 2024 squad, or should their fans expect more losing the rest of the way?

Who are the Mets really?

The Mets are better than their record because of Bo Bichette

New York invested heavily in improving their offense this offseason by inking Bichette to a three-year, $126 million deal. Or at least, that was President of Baseball Operations David Stearns’ intent. Bichette, a two-time All-Star shortstop, had received down-ballot MVP votes in four of his seven seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays and led the American League in hits in 2021 (191) and 2022 (189).

In 2026, Bichette is on pace for the worst season of his career. His .595 OPS is a career low. He’s also on pace for 150 hits in 162 games – but Bichette has never played 162 games in a season in his career. Even if he did, 150 hits would be his lowest in any season with more than 100 appearances.

Looking ahead, if the Mets could get just a hint of the Bichette they expected when they signed him – a player like the one they saw flashes of in the mid-May series in Washington – they might start winning more games. At the very least, they wouldn’t be occupying the 2-hole in their lineup with their second-worst everyday hitter by OPS. Currently, only second baseman Marcus Semien (.575) is worse. And even Semien, at least, has been getting hits in RISP situations.

The Mets are worse than their record because of good pitching luck

So far this season, the Mets’ pitchers have been a big part of why New York has even won 22 games. Met pitchers are tied for 10th place in MLB in batting average against (.236) and are sixth in the NL in team ERA (3.96). But digging deeper, it’s possible the Mets’ best arms – particularly its top relievers – might just be a bit lucky.

“Luck” is a hard stat to quantify. Though it’s far from perfect, the closest thing baseball has to measuring how “lucky” a player might be is its BABIP (batting average on balls in play) statistic. A player with a high BABIP might be the beneficiary of lucky placement of a batted ball and could be projected to regress as the lengthy MLB season continues. Conversely, a player with a low BABIP could be “unlucky” and one in line for better output than what their batting average or on-base percentage shows.

The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros are in the exact middle of MLB in terms of BABIP, ranking 15th and 16th, respectively, with matching .287 marks. Eight Met pitchers have allowed BABIP marks lower than .287. Opposing batters are hitting .183 on balls in play against Huascar Brazobán, who leads the Mets’ staff. Luke Weaver has given up a .246 BABIP in his first 22.1 innings in 2026. Brooks Raley’s BABIP allowed sits at .280.

If those numbers start tipping back toward the league-average mark, the Mets’ pitching might start showing signs of regression. And if that happens before the Mets’ offense is able to get things going, New York is going to start losing a lot more than it already has been.

The Mets are reflective of their record because of their putrid offense

There are no teams in MLB worse at getting on base and hitting for power in 2026 than the Mets. New York ranks dead last in on-base percentage (.292) and slugging percentage (.349) through Memorial Day. The Mets have hit fewer doubles (70) than any other team in baseball. They also have the sixth-fewest home runs as a team (48).

Their hitters have taken fewer walks as a team than any National League team besides the Giants and Rockies, and only San Francisco (196) has fewer RBIs than New York (200) in the NL through 55 games for each team.

It’s hard to point fingers at any one hitter in particular, but superstar Juan Soto is clearly exempt. His on-base and slugging percentages both rank among the best in MLB. But only two other Met hitters with at least 50 plate appearances have an OPS+ above 100 – or the league-average mark.

One of them is A.J. Ewing, a rookie with 58 plate appearances. And the other is Francisco Alvarez, who is currently on the Injured List. Soto is the only currently healthy, everyday hitter with an OPS+ and wRC+ better than league average.

The Mets have not been capable of scoring runs. They’re third-worst in MLB in that category, which matches up with their .400 win percentage – tied for fourth-worst in the majors. Unless New York’s entire offense course corrects, the 2026 Mets are who their record says they are.

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