1 NY Mets player to trust a little more but with serious caution

Through 8 games and 7.1 innings of work, Craig Kimbrel hasn’t been his old Hall of Fame self. He hasn’t been the same guy who got bumped off of the 2024 Baltimore Orioles either. Somewhere in between this year for the New York Mets, Kimbrel has kind of been what we should’ve expected him to.

A 3.68 ERA is satisfying even if it comes with a 1.36 WHIP. Then there’s the 1.91 FIP which tells us he has been the victim of some bad luck. A typical Kimbrel appearance includes at least one hit allowed, at least one strikeout, and Mets fans everywhere holding their breath waiting for it to all break down.

He’s showing there’s some reason to trust him, just with a large dose of caution.

Should we start to trust Craig Kimbrel?

Striking out the side against the Washington Nationals in the Mets’ 8-0 win is the most vintage Kimbrel has looked. All other appearances have included a hit with the exception being when he blew the game in the 10th versus the Chicago Cubs. Charged with his lone loss of the year, we file that appearance into the bad.

Kimbrel is a bit of a puzzle. He turns 38 later this month and a sudden decline wouldn’t be unexpected. This could very well be his final year in the big leagues. The Mets won the only game where he was charged with any runs, their 10-8 win over the Minnesota Twins. And yet, despite frequent success and no major blowups otherwise, Kimbrel has yet to fully enter the circle of trust.

It’s a very small sample, Kimbrel first pitching for the Mets on April 11. They’ve been using him in more high-leverage situations lately, earning a hold on Monday against the Colorado Rockies with a clean 8th inning. The Mets bullpen is poorly designed and with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver already raising some doubts, they’ve needed a little more from Kimbrel in the last two weeks as that pair tries to find their footing.

Kimbrel has, oddly, been one of the lesser discussed Mets players this year. The offense has stunk, the starting rotation is trying to find five men to rely on, and other relievers done worse. Kimbrel is kind of caught in the middle. He’s someone we think could be more impactful while also accepting he could flame out big time.

Purely a coincidence in such a small sample, Kimbrel’s best numbers have come in high-leverage spots. Batters are hitting .125 against him versus .500 in medium leverage and .313 in low-leverage. It’s that latter where he has seen the bulk of action, 17 total plate appearances against only 3 medium and 10 high.

Few have pitched in more high-leverage spots in their career than Kimbrel. With great caution, the Mets should have some belief in him during those situations.

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