1 good NY Mets stat, 1 bad, and 1 that’s anything but ugly

The New York Mets are 10-5 to begin the season. There’s still a long road ahead, but they already have some stats that are standing out. They’re excelling in many areas but are coming short in some parts of the game. While things could still drastically change as the season goes on, let’s take a look at some metrics the Mets as a team are standing out in, for better or for worse.

1 good stat: .340 xwOBA

Weighted on-base average, or wOBA, is a stat that attempts to measure the value of every type of hit, walk, and hit-by-pitch. It is on a similar scale as on-base percentage, where anything between .310 and .320 is typically about league average. The Mets’ offense as a whole hasn’t been doing all that great. They’re batting a combined .215/.302/.366, with their wOBA clocking in at .295, the ninth lowest in baseball.

However, Statcast can take wOBA to another level, with expected weighted on-base average or xwOBA. This incorporates batted ball data, such as launch angle and exit velocity. It will also take into account a player’s sprint speed on some batted balls. It is a snapshot to tell when a player or players are getting lucky or unlucky, and in the Mets’ case, they’re getting extremely unlucky. Their xwOBA of .340 is the fifth-best in the league. They’re only being outpaced by the crosstown rival New York Yankees, the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 42-point difference between wOBA and xwOBA is the second largest in the league, behind the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have a massive 61-point difference. Better hitting should be on the horizon for the Mets.

1 bad stat: 11.1% starter walk rate

The NY Mets’ starting pitching has been mostly dominant this season. They have the lowest ERA at 2.55 while having the fourth lowest FIP at 3.21, and are only one of five teams who have seen their starters strike out at least a quarter of the opponents they’ve faced, with a 25% K% on the dot. The Mets, Pirates, and Kansas City Royals are the only teams whose starters have limited opponents to an HR/9 under 0.60, with the Mets sitting at 0.58.

However, walks have seemingly given the Mets’ starters trouble this season. They’ve dished out a free pass to 11.1% of opponents, which is the second-highest in the league. They still trail the Dodgers’ starters by a wide margin, who have a 15% BB%. But the Mets’ starters are currently on pace for the highest single-season walk rate in the franchise’s history. The current full-season highest walk rate Mets starters have put up was 9.7% in 1982.

1 stat that’s anything but ugly: 10.9% barrel percentage

Barrel percentage is a measure of how often a batter has an ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle. In short, it is a measure of how much quality contact is made. The Statcast Era leader in this stat for the Mets is unsurprisingly Pete Alonso at 14%, which also ranks top 25 among all hitters in the Statcast Era (min. 1000 plate appearances). However, the Mets are excelling in this department.

As a team, Mets hitters have combined for a 10.9% barrel rate. This is the fourth highest in baseball, behind the Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, and division rival Atlanta Braves. Alonso currently has the third-highest qualified mark in baseball at 26.7%. But Brandon Nimmo has the 24th highest at 17%. There’s a strong chance the Mets only improve in this stat, with Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Mark Vientos off to slow starts, but they will likely begin turning things around soon.