1 Cardinals prospect the NY Mets should demand in a Nolan Arenado trade

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to try to drop third baseman Nolan Arenado’s salary. However, his full no-trade clause might make that difficult. MLB reporter John Denton recently reported that the former all-star will waive his NTC for six different teams. One of those six teams is the New York Mets.

That significantly cuts down the number of teams the Cardinals can engage in any trade talks with and makes it quite possible he ends up with the Mets. However, any trade that involves Arenado will likely have to include a prospect attached. The Cardinals want to move most, if not all, of Arenado’s remaining contract. He is owed $74 million over the next three seasons, with only $10 million of that being paid off by Arenado’s former team, the Colorado Rockies.

If Arenado was still producing at an MVP-like level, then this would not be a financial burden. But the last two seasons have proven to be difficult for Arenado. He is coming off a career-worst campaign in 2024, where he hit just .272/.325/.394 with a .315 wOBA and 102 wRC+. His 14.5% K% is one of the only positives to come out of his bat. Arenado has always walked at a below-average rate, and ‘24 was no different, with a 6.9% mark. Arenado’s power also dissipated, as he hit just 16 homers in 635 plate appearances with a .123 isolated slugging percentage. He was below the 10th percentile in both exit velocity (86.3 MPH) as well as barrel rate (3.2%), with a sub-.300 xwOBA, at .296.

At the very least, Arenado has remained a strong defensive third baseman. He had +6 defensive runs saved and +9 outs above average at the hot corner. Only Matt Chapman and Joey Ortiz had more outs above average, and he still had the 8th most defensive runs saved in baseball. Arenado has also stated he would be willing to play some first base. 

The Mets need to ask for a decent prospect for a Nolan Arendo trade to be worth their time.

If the Mets negotiate any deal with the Cardinals, the Cardinals must make it worth the Mets’ time. The Mets must demand a decent prospect so they can take on Arenado, and that prospect should be Cooper Hjerpe. Hjerpe is a former 2022 first-round pick by the Cardinals. Hjerpe is coming off a strong season where he had a 3.27 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP for the Cards’ High-A and Double-A affiliate teams. But he was limited to just 53.1 innings pitched.

Hjerpe rarely allowed home runs with a 0.52 HR/9 rate. He also struck out over a third of opponents with a K% of 35.2%. But he struggled to keep opponents off the bases via free passes with a BB% of 13%. Hjerpe didn’t pitch after July 2nd, as he suffered an elbow injury. Hjerpe would eventually undergo surgery to remove a loose body from his left elbow. However, that’s his second elbow surgery in his pro career.

Hjerpe is a side-arm lefty that only sits around 89-91 MPH. Despite unimpressive velocity, his fastball plays up because of his low arm angle. He has two breaking offerings, including an upper-70s sweeping slider and a mid-80s cutter. Of his two breaking pitches, his sweeper is the better offering. Finally, he rounds out his pitch arsenal with a change-up with similar velo to his slider.

Hjerpe is a consensus top-ten prospect in the Cardinals’ system, but they have to make it worthwhile for the Mets to take on Arenado. The Mets just signed Juan Soto to the largest deal in professional sports history. Even though Steve Cohen might seem like he has a bottomless wallet, the Mets shouldn’t just be throwing money around because they can. They could arguably solve their need for another corner infielder by re-signing Pete Alonso, who is likely both a safer bet and will have a similar AAV to Arenado.