Mets vs. Phillies pitching matchup heavily favors the home team

A pair of Venezuelan lefties will help decide if the New York Mets or Philadelphia Phillies win Game 4 of their NLDS battle. For the Mets, we have Jose Quintana. The Phillies call upon Ranger Suarez who at one point this season looked like a Cy Young contender. 

If you’re a believer in trends, this matchup certainly seems to favor the Mets. Suarez had the slightly better season but the two had very different finishes.

Mets pitcher Jose Quintana ended the year strong while Phillies starter Ranger Suarez did his damage early

Quintana was frustrating at times. Dazzling at others. Even more so puzzling in the final month when he was one of the best pitchers in MLB. A very average first half finishing at 4-6 with a 4.13 ERA, Quintana was far superior after the All-Star Break when he was 6-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He was actually quite brilliant in four of the six regular season months. A 7.20 ERA in May and 5.63 performance in August are what hurt his numbers most. In September, he finished 3-1 with a 0.72 ERA for the month.

Suarez, on the other hand, pitched incredibly well early on only to become a bit of a burden late. His 10-4 and 2.76 ERA in the first half was a gift for the red hot Phillies early on. A 2-4 record and 5.65 ERA in the second-half (in just 8 starts due to injury) wasn’t nearly as welcomed. The final month of the season was his worst, too. Batters belted him to the tune of a .330/.402/.511 slash line. His 6.04 ERA wasn’t even the worst of any month this year. He saw it jump up to 6.61 in July.

What’ll be the deciding factor here? Quintana pitched last Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers. Suarez has had a long layoff thanks to the first-round bye the Phillies received for having the second-best record in the National League. We’ve seen the Phillies relievers struggle in this series, possibly because of how cold they became from the absence of games. The starters haven’t had nearly as much of a problem against the Mets.

Consistency hasn’t been a landmark trait for either this year. Because of recent trends, the key for the Mets seems to be hammering Suarez early and hard. Make this as uncompetitive of a game as possible. The well-rested Mets bullpen can pick up any slack behind Quintana. Just cross your fingers that the batting practice version doesn’t show up.