NY Mets: Ranking the top 10 trade targets this offseason

The New York Mets have many questions awaiting them this offseason: who will be running the front office moving forward? Which stars will the team retain? Can the Mets do enough to bounce back from their nightmarish second half of 2021?

With lots of looming decisions and the unknown of the CBA which expires on December 1st, the Mets have their work cut out for them. There are enough positives to build upon, but enough negatives to warrant concern and while many of the talks about the roadmap to the playoffs have centered around which free agents the team should pursue, the trade market is flush with talent that could provide a huge boost in Flushing.

The Mets’ trade deadline approach during 2021 was a bit puzzling as the team was in need of pitching, but instead opted to trade outfield prospect Pete Crow Armstrong for Javier Baez who, while providing a nice boost on the field, stirred up some controversy as well. There were some who believed that last year was the year to move any of the core pieces due to their high trade value coming off the truncated 2020 season. However, the team opted to roll with the likes of J.D. Davis, Dom Smith, and Jeff McNeil to name a few. That decision, while understandable at the time, proved to hurt them as those players grossly underperformed and diminished their trade value heading into the winter. That isn’t to say there’s no value at all, but certainly nothing that would match what those players could’ve received if they had been shipped last offseason.

Who could we see the New York Mets trade for this offseason?

Many indications have pointed towards a Baez return and while that would provide more beneficial than costly (depending on the contract), the Mets should be looking to improve in multiple areas via the trade market by using some of their core pieces and lower-level prospects as chips. The farm system, already thin on talent at the mid-level, is in the process of being rebuilt and it would behoove the club to minimize the prospects they trade. However, between the players currently on the roster and some raw, lower-level prospects, the Mets have potential to get some value back in a trade.

Here are the top ten players the Mets should look to acquire this offseason.

10) Michael Fulmer

Michael Fulmer was a top Mets prospect at the time they traded him away in the 11th hour for Yoenis Cespedes. At the time, many were conflicted on the trade, but after a World Series appearance later that season for the Mets and arm troubles over the next few season for Fulmer, it seemed the Mets were on the winning side.

Now, six years later, the Mets should be involved with another trade, this time with Fulmer coming to Queens. The right-hander, coming back from a slew of injuries,  made the transition as a starter to the bullpen and it paid off. In 48 relief appearances this season, Fulmer compiled a 2.97 ERA, 14 saves and 73 strikeouts in 69.5 IP.

Fulmer’s advanced metrics suggested 2021 wasn’t a fluke either. In addition to posting his lowest hard-hit percentage since 2017, Fulmer also landed in the 8th percentile in chase rate, 74th percentile in whiff rate and was among the top group in both exit velocity and fastball velocity.

The Mets, who are in need of starting pitching, are always in need of bullpen help. Mets relievers were actually more solid than fans have grown accustomed to, but there’s still the Edwin Diaz conundrum, and reinforcing the end of games never hurts.

Bringing Fulmer back to Flushing would help add to a bullpen that has been inconsistent to say the least the last few years. Looking around the majors, a strong bullpen is an imperative piece to any serious championship run and the Mets would be wise to call up Detroit to see what the asking price would be.

9) Ketel Marte

Anyone else still think 2019 was last year or is that just me? Regardless, 2019 was recent enough to carry relevance into 2022 and it’s important because it’s when Ketel Marte finished 4th in the National League MVP voting. For the Mets, a bat and glove like Marte’s would give them a ton of flexibility in their lineup and defense alignment on a nightly basis.

Marte quietly finished the 2021 season with very good numbers, albeit a small sample. Limited to only 90 games by injuries, Marte put together a slashline of 318/.377/.527/.909 to go along with 14 homers and 50 RBIs. With a career OPS of .808, Marte certainly is good for some pop throughout a season, but what really stands out for the Mets is his versatility around the diamond.

In seven seasons in the Majors, Marte has compiled over 1,000 innings at three different positions: shortstop, second base and centerfield. While shortstop is obviously blocked for the foreseeable future, the Mets could benefit from having someone who could man both second and center. Marte in 1900+ innings at second base totaled 19 Defensive Runs Saved, but show a much poorer showing in centerfield, albeit a much smaller sample, with -11 DRS.

If the Mets are looking to build a team that provides positional flexibility while not sacrificing power at the plate, Marte would be worth looking into this winter.

7) Kevin Kiermaier

The Mets haven’t had a gold glove caliber centerfielder since Juan Lagares and while Brandon Nimmo made strides last year, the club is desperate for a defensive presence in centerfield. Enter: Kevin Kiermaier.

The Tampa Bay rays have never shied away from making big trades or shedding money and with Kiermaier set to make $12M in 2022 and $13M in 2023, barring they pick up his option, the Mets would be wise to at least check in on the availability of the 32-year old centerfielder.

Kiermaier finished 4th in all of baseball with 12 Outs Above Average in 2021, which was behind two gold glove winners. It’s even more impressive when you consider that Kiermaier is older than the three players who finished above him. This highlights the fact that the Mets shouldn’t be scared off by him being 32, as he’s proven that he’s got plenty left in the tank defensively.

With the inevitable departure of Michael Conforto and Kevin Pillar opting to be a free agent, the Mets will have to make some improvements to the outfield group not only offensively, but defensively as well. Brandon Nimmo has proven to be consistent, but with Dom Smith looking like the option in left field currently, it would behoove the Mets to make a move to improve their defense, especially up the middle.

The one caveat to a move for Kiermaier would be the lack of offense that would be apparent in the lineup. Kiermaier’s OPS eclipsed .700 (.716) this past season for just the first time since 2017. And while Kiermaier’s sprint speed in the outfield is in the upper echelon of the league, there’s much to be desired on the basepaths.

Considering all of this, if the Mets do well to provide offense in free agency in other areas, taking a shot at tremendously improving the defense up the middle of the field could pay dividends next season.

6) Sonny Gray

It’s no mystery that the New York Mets are in dire need of pitching heading into 2022. With the pending departure of Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard and the health of Jacob deGrom more in question than years past, the rotation is something of solidification.

Many expect Syndergaard to accept the $18.4M option extended to him, but if he does return and Stroman doesn’t, the Mets’ rotation certainly has some staggering question marks.

Could Sonny Gray be the answer?

Gray is almost a 10 year veteran now and he’s settled in nicely since making the move to Cincinnati. Over his last three seasons, he’s compiled a 3.58 ERA while averaging 144 Ks per season, good for a 10.8 K/9 ratio. The swing and miss stuff is still there for Gray and while he had a rocky stretch in the Bronx with his time playing for the Yankees, there’s no reason to think that he couldn’t handle being back on the stage of NYC.

The 32 year old is owed $10.2M in 2022 and then has a club option for 2023 for $12M. However, Cincinnati has made it known that they’re looking to shed payroll this offseason and with early rumors of them willing to part in a trade with Luis Castillo, there’s much reason to believe they’d be eager to move an eight-figure contract.

5) John Means

The rumors surrounding the Mets and John Means date back to 2020, when the Mets reached out to ask about Means’s availability. Nothing ever materialized as the Orioles were more intent on holding onto the southpaw and after his breakout first half in 2021, there might be more of an incentive for the Orioles to build around Means.

However, Means is arbitration eligible after the 2022 season and Baltimore, who hasn’t spent major money in a long time, may not want to pay arbitration money for three years if they’re not in a position to compete in the AL East.

Means broke out in a big way in 2021, albeit injuries plagued him during the second half of the season. In the first half of the season, Means registered a 2.28 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 71 innings, which was also accompanied by a minuscule WHIP of 0.83. Although Means’s ERA more than double in the second half, he showed signs of promise and being in a pitcher’s park like Citi Field would only benefit his numbers.

While not a major issue, it is worth mentioning that the Mets’ rotation doesn’t feature an above-average left-hander in it. The Mets acquired Rich Hill right before the trade deadline, but relying on someone over 40 isn’t ideal. Joey Luchessi pitched well, but had his season cut short by injury and sophomore David Peterson had fans holding their breath every time he took the bump. Outside of the that, the rotation currently features all right-handed pitchers.

For a fairly young, controllable pitcher, the asking price may be a bit high, but if the Mets want to sure up their rotation in 2022, while adding a much needed left-handed starter, pushing to get Means would be a huge addition for both the short and long term.

4) Josh Hader

The 2021 National League Reliever of the Year, Josh Hader, will be one of the most sought-after arms if the Milwaukee Brewers decide to trade him. The Mets’ bullpen could desperately use a guaranteed shutdown closer and Hader would fit the bill perfectly.

Since bursting onto the season in 2017, Hader has to put together some video game numbers while serving as a multi-inning reliever and closer. Since his rookie season, Hader has 282.1 innings in relief. Over those 282.1 IP, he’s put together a 2.26 ERA, an 0.85 WHIP, 482 Ks and 96 saves.

Hader has established his dominance as one of the premier closers in baseball and what’s more, is how effective he would be against some of the big bats in the N.L. East. The likes of Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and barring a departure from the Atlanta Braves, Freddie Freeman, who are all lefties, would have their work cut out for them late in games facing Hader. Obviously, these three aren’t the only hitters who’d have their work cut out for them, but having a dominant lefty late in games would give a huge advantage to the Mets.

Hader is set to make $8M in 2022 before his final arbitration year in 2023, after which he will become an unrestricted free agent. At that cost, especially in comparison to what other big name relieves like Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendricks have been given, you’re looking at a huge bargain financially,

The incentive for the Brewers to trade Hader has probably lessened since making a playoff appearance in 2021, but with Hader’s departure in free agency rapidly approaching, they could look to move him, in which case the Mets should absolutely be on the phone.

3) Byron Buxton

I’m gonna be totally honest, I’m a huge Byron Buxton fan. I think he’s a top tier talent and it’s the exact type of talent the Mets would thrive on moving forward. Now, the first thing most people will point out is Buxton’s injury history. Buxton has appeared in over 100 games just once in his career, which cannot be ignored. Given the recent troubles with Mets’ own injury problems, fans probably aren’t clamoring for someone who has been plagued with consistent injuries.

What the Mets would be getting, however, is well worth the risk. When listing the things the Mets have been sorely lacking (speed, right-handed power, a true centerfielder), Buxton checks every one of those boxes.

At the beginning of 2021, especially in April, the league was introduced to the full potential of Buxton. Look at what Buxton did in 73 plate appearances in March/April:

The number two overall pick in the 2012 MLB draft, Buxton has long been heralded as a freak athlete with the potential to be a perennial all-star. It’s been injuries that have held back his ability to break out, but the raw tools are all there and when clicking, he’s one of the games top players. When he did play 140 games in 2017, he won a gold glove, something the Mets haven’t had in centerfield since Juan Lagares in 2014.

The Mets, who have long been in need for a defensive presence in centerfield, would have to examine whether the risk would be worth the cost in a trade, but there are a few variables to consider. First, the Twins and Buxton have failed to reach an extension, despite attempts by Minnesota to lock him up long term. Second, the injuries certainly have impacted his cost, even though the asking price was still considered high at the deadline this past season. But Buxton is in the final year of his contract and unless the Twins are going to shell out a nice contract for Buxton, they pose the risk of losing him without getting anything in return.

It would be a gamble for the Mets to say the least, but one that could pay a huge reward if Buxton can stay healthy in 2022.

2) Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman is one of the best defensive players in all of baseball, the Oakland Athletics are going to sell this offseason and the Mets still don’t have an answer at third base.

The Matt Chapman rumors have been swirling for some time, but with early reports indicating that the Athletics are looking to sell off some high-priced pieces, the reality of the platinum glove winner coming to Flushing could be a reality.

Chapman had a down 2021, which was actually common around the league for a lot of stars. His OPS was below .800 for the first time since his rookie year and the same goes for his slugging percentage, which dipped below .500. 2021 should be seen as an outlier and while the bat wasn’t fully there, the glove certainly was, again.

For the third time in five seasons, Chapman took home a gold glove award. This kind of defensive presence, combined with another gold glove winner and finalist in 2021, Francisco Lindor, could give the Mets the best left side of the infield in baseball, defensively. And while Chapman’s glove has been the most consistent thing in his career, the 28-year old can rake. He hit 36 homers in 2019 and also received MVP votes both that year and in 2018.

Chapman will earn $9.5M this season and is due for arbitration next year, but if Oakland has shown anything over the years, it’s that they aren’t scared to shed payroll or trade big stars. Saving almost $10M in a smaller market like Oakland would be ideal and the Mets would be able to add a potential MVP candidate to their roster. Did we mention that Chapman is right handed?

1) Jose Ramirez

The number one player the Mets should be looking to trade for this offseason is none other than Jose Ramirez.

The switch-hitting all-star, who signed a four-year extension with Cleveland, is winding down to the final two years of that contract and could be a free agent next year if his club option isn’t picked up. The Guardians, one of the teams hit harder by the pandemic shortened season, shipped off the face of their franchise, Lindor, to the Mets last winter in an attempt to salvage money. Could they do the same this year with Ramirez?

Ramirez has been a consistent bat in the Majors since his breakout season in 2016. That year, the infielder put together a slashline of .312/.363/.462/.825 with 11 homers and 46 doubles. Since then, Ramirez has finished no less than third in the AL MVP voting three times, while bringing home three Silver Slugger awards and three All-Star appearances.

While his primary position has been third base, Ramirez has also manned second base, shortstop and even seen time in the outfield. Again, with the uncertainty around who will be manning the hot corner in 2022, plugging in Ramirez’s bat would be a massive upgrade for the Mets.

The Mets have been linked to a few different infielders, but none with more immediate impact at the plate than Jose Ramirez. It’s also important to note that Ramirez has proven playoff experience. Having appeared in a World Series in 2016, Ramirez hit .310 over 29 at bats.

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With power from both sides and being able to hit for contact, Ramirez would be a perfect bat to infuse offense into a Mets lineup that was decrepit in 2021. The Mets have expressed that they’re not wanting to part with any big names at the top of their farm system, but if they were willing to move a top ten prospect and partner that with a proven Major Leaguer, the Mets would be helping their cause more than hurting it by acquiring Ramirez.