NY Mets: Breaking down MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent predictions

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Sep 28, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) throws against the Miami Marlins during the first inning of game two of a doubleheader at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /

There are only a couple of tabs I always have open in my browser. One that never needs to be searched incognito is MLB Trade Rumors. They are a great resource for all things transaction-related and each offseason their writers share some thoughts and predictions regarding what they expect will happen. They kicked off this hot stove season with a list of the top 50 MLB free agents along with predictions for where they will end up. For New York Mets fans eager to see a stronger team built through the open market, this can help set some expectations.

It’s important to always realize that predictions are almost always 90% wrong. In particular, when you have 50 shots to make, landing five of them would be a pretty good percentage. There is already a theoretical 1 in 30 chance to get it right simply by picking a name out of a hat. Those odds increase with the more players you look at and how one prediction may negate the possibility of another.

With all of this in mind, take these predictions for the Mets with two grains of salt instead of the usual one. It’s coming from people who really know their stuff but even they can miss massively.

Players predicted to unanimously sign with the Mets: 1

Only one of the top 50 free agents got the unanimous nod to rejoin the Mets in 2022 and it’s no surprise who it is. Noah Syndergaard received a qualifying offer and all indications point to him accepting it.

If you still think Syndergaard’s time in Flushing is coming to a close, you might be alone in this world. It’s only a matter of time before he makes it official.

Sep 12, 2021; Oakland, California, USA; Oakland Athletics center fielder Starling Marte (2) tosses his glove during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at RingCentral Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports /

Players with at least 1 of the 3 MLBTR writers predicting they sign with the Mets: 5

There are five players that had at least one of the three experts believing they will end up with the Mets next season. These players include Kris Bryant, Starling Marte, Anthony DeSclafani, Kyle Seager, and Jonathan Villar. Obviously, all five won’t suit up for the club next season. A combination of any two is a nice start, particularly if one is Bryant or Marte.

Bryant and Marte are two names you should hear and see plenty relating to the Mets this winter. Bryant fills their third base need and is also a possible corner outfield solution. Marte can still play a good center field but is also a potential Michael Conforto replacement in right field or an upgrade over in left field.

The other three names that had a single nod from the MLBTR staff aren’t nearly as exciting. DeSclafani had a fine year with the San Francisco Giants but he hardly moves the needle for me. Seager is a short-term rental that I can live with if other pieces around him are improved. The same could be said about Villar, however, I’m not so sure I like the idea of him coming in as a starter on Opening Day—the only way I see him re-signing with the Mets.

Oct 1, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New York Mets shortstop Javier Baez (23) reacts after a strikeout against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

Members of the 2021 Mets unanimously predicted to sign elsewhere: 3

Finally, there’s one other category to discuss. Out of the top 50 free agents, these three are exiting Queens with a unanimous prediction that none will be back with the Mets in 2022.

Javier Baez, Marcus Stroman, and Michael Conforto received 0 out of 3 votes to stay in blue and orange. Out of the three, Baez actually feels the most likely to return. This is odd considering his relationship with the fans and how short his stint in Flushing actually was. However, with Stroman already talking about other organizations and Conforto wasting no time to turn down the QO, I understand why everyone thinks they’re on the way out.

For what it’s worth, this is how the three were predicted:

Baez had two votes for the Texas Rangers and one for the Detroit Tigers. Rising Apple’s Will Wetzel has the same belief that Baez could end up with possibly done-rebuilding Tigers.

Stroman got nods for the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, and Los Angeles Dodgers. One of these things is not like the other. If Stroman ends up with the Twins, I don’t think anyone should ever be able to predict another transaction in the sport ever again.

Next. Top free agents for the Mets to consider

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Conforto also has three teams. They include the Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, and Milwaukee Brewers. Going to the Braves would be difficult for Mets fans. I’m curious to see what he could do in Milwaukee, though. The team has had several outfielders underperform in recent years. Could he help ignite an offense in need of help?

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