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NY Mets: Breaking down MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent predictions

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 02: Jonathan Villar #1 of the New York Mets is congratulated by Marcus Stroman #0 after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins in the first inning of a game at Citi Field on September 2, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 02: Jonathan Villar #1 of the New York Mets is congratulated by Marcus Stroman #0 after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins in the first inning of a game at Citi Field on September 2, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
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Sep 28, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) throws against the Miami Marlins during the first inning of game two of a doubleheader at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

There are only a couple of tabs I always have open in my browser. One that never needs to be searched incognito is MLB Trade Rumors. They are a great resource for all things transaction-related and each offseason their writers share some thoughts and predictions regarding what they expect will happen. They kicked off this hot stove season with a list of the top 50 MLB free agents along with predictions for where they will end up. For New York Mets fans eager to see a stronger team built through the open market, this can help set some expectations.

It’s important to always realize that predictions are almost always 90% wrong. In particular, when you have 50 shots to make, landing five of them would be a pretty good percentage. There is already a theoretical 1 in 30 chance to get it right simply by picking a name out of a hat. Those odds increase with the more players you look at and how one prediction may negate the possibility of another.

With all of this in mind, take these predictions for the Mets with two grains of salt instead of the usual one. It’s coming from people who really know their stuff but even they can miss massively.

Players predicted to unanimously sign with the Mets: 1

Only one of the top 50 free agents got the unanimous nod to rejoin the Mets in 2022 and it’s no surprise who it is. Noah Syndergaard received a qualifying offer and all indications point to him accepting it.

If you still think Syndergaard’s time in Flushing is coming to a close, you might be alone in this world. It’s only a matter of time before he makes it official.

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