NY Mets: 9 under the radar free agents the Mets should target

The New York Mets have a long to-do list this offseason. They need to assemble a new front office, find a new manager and coaching staff, and acquire several players as well.

Free agency is the best route for the Mets to take this winter. With the richest owner in sports at the helm, the Mets can sign players without further depleting the farm system.

Naturally, when people think about free agency, they think about the “A” tier guys. How would Max Scherzer look in orange and blue? What about Nick Castellanos? Marcus Semien’s sweet swing would work in the middle of our lineup. Craig Kimbrel would add some heat to the back end of the bullpen.

Unfortunately, no team can sign all of those guys. It’s not a sustainable model, especially since there might be a salary cap or a lower luxury tax threshold in the upcoming CBA. Winning teams need a couple of those “A” tier guys, but they must be complemented with some “B” and “C” tier guys who can make meaningful contributions and play every day.

Let’s take a look at some of those “B” and “C” tier guys who can contribute every day, but don’t come with the price tag of the “A” level free agents.

Avisail Garcia quietly had the best season of his career this year. The Mets should buy-in.

The 30-year-old outfielder posted a slash line of .262/.330/.490/.820 in Milwaukee. He hit 29 homers, 18 doubles, drove in 86 runs, and scored 68. He had an OPS+ of 117, a wRC+ of 115, and a WAR of 2.9.

His Baseball Savant page looks good as well. He finished in the top 30% of average exit velocity (73rd percentile), max exit velocity (98th percentile), hard hit percentage (78th percentile), xwoba (85th percentile), xBA (83rd percentile), xSLG (87th percentile), barrel percentage (80th percentile), and sprint speed (88th percentile). While he does not walk very much (29th percentile BB%) and does strikeout (36th percentile K%), he does hit the ball very hard, very often.

Defensively, Garcia is primarily a right fielder, but he logged a few innings in center as well. He racked up eight defensive runs saved in 1,016 innings in right field. Garcia is not going to win a gold glove anytime soon, but he does have an elite arm, tallying 6.5 Arm Runs Saved (ARM).

Garcia has a player option for $12,000,000 in 2022, but that should be a swift rejection with the season he had. He’s also a candidate for a qualifying offer. Let’s say that Michael Conforto doesn’t accept the inevitable qualifying offer, Kahlil Lee needs more time to develop, and the Mets don’t go after Nick Castellanos. Avisail Garcia would be a good right fielder for the Mets in 2022 and beyond.

The Mets have had a hole at third base since David Wright retired. Enter Eduardo Escobar.

The 32-year-old, switch-hitting infielder had a good season in 2021. He hit .253/.314/.472/.786 with 28 homers, 26 doubles, 90 RBI, and 70 runs scored. He had an OPS+ of 109, a wRC+ of 107, and a WAR of 2.9.

His Baseball Savant page isn’t exactly as red as a rose garden, but his metrics look decent. His max exit velocity was in the 76th percentile, and his xSLG was in the 67th. He’s another guy that doesn’t walk a ton (37th percentile BB%), but he doesn’t strike out that much (54th percentile K%).

Defensively, Escobar split most of his time between second (42 games) and third (34 games), but he also played 18 games at first and one at shortstop. He posted a zero DRS – exactly average – at second and short, and he was slightly below at first (-1) and third (-3). Positional versatility is a huge asset to have, and since he’s basically average at each infield position, he could move around a lot.

It’s worth noting that the Mets have two top prospects that primarily play third base in Mark Vientos and Brett Baty. If the Mets think they can contribute sooner than later, it would behoove them to go after someone like Escobar on a shorter deal instead of a much longer commitment like Kris Bryant.

Escobar is an unrestricted free agent, so there’s nothing to worry about in terms of options or qualifying offers. His offense combined with his positional versatility would make him a good fit in Queens.

Eduardo Rodriguez is one of the most interesting pitchers available this offseason. He could eat a lot of innings for the Mets.

The southpaw finished the regular season with 157.2 innings pitched, 172 hits allowed, 86 earned runs allowed, 47 walks given up, and 185 strikeouts. His ERA was 4.74, but considering he had a FIP of 3.32, he was hurt massively by the Red Sox weak defense. Even so, he had an ERA+ of 128 and a WAR of 3.8.

Rodriguez is an innings eater. He’s only had one season where he didn’t reach 120 innings pitched and that was in 2016, when he started the season late due to a knee injury. He’s also never had a season where he didn’t make at least 20 starts. He did not play in 2020 due to long-term complications from his COVID-19 infection. He silenced any doubters about his health this season by making 31 starts.

E-Rod is a ground ball specialist. 43.2% of his outs came via ground balls and he is really good at coaxing weak contact (90th percentile average exit velocity). Considering the Red Sox have an infield featuring Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Bobby Dalbec, inducing ground balls is not a recipe for success on that team. However, give him a better defense, perhaps one including Francisco Lindor, and you’ll see that ERA come down closer to his FIP.

Considering that the Red Sox already have thin pitching, there’s a chance that they extend Rodriguez a qualifying offer. However, I think giving up that draft pick would be worth it for him. He’s going to start every fifth day, go deep into games, and give the team a chance to win.

Like most pitchers, it would behoove Jon Gray to leave Colorado. He has the chance to do that and come to the Mets this winter.

The righty pitched 149 innings, allowed 140 hits, 76 earned runs, 58 walks, and he struck out 157 batters. His ERA was 4.59, his FIP was 4.22, his ERA+ was 104, and he tallied 2.3 WAR.

Gray has also shown the ability to eat innings. In his seven MLB seasons, he’s pitched more than 110 innings five times and more than 149 innings four times. He’s basically a two-pitch pitcher; he’s got a mid-90’s fastball that he throws 48% of the time, and a high-80’s slider that he throws 38% of the time. He also has a changeup and curveball, which he uses eight percent of the time and six percent of the time, respectively.

Gray is good at limiting hard contact and getting ground balls, 48.4% of his outs come on the ground. He was 62nd percentile in barrel percentage and 61st in xSLG. His fastball velocity is in the 76th percentile and he gets nice spin on his curve, which is in the 69th percentile. What Gray can improve on is his walk rate (39th percentile) and his chase rate (just 5%).

Gray doesn’t have any options and likely won’t receive the $18.4 million qualifying offer. He would probably be a third or fourth starter on the Mets, fitting somewhere between a hopefully-heathy deGrom and a hopefully-extended Marcus Stroman at the top, and some combination of Carrasco, Walker, and Peterson at the bottom.

Signing Michael Lorenzen would add another flamethrower to the back of the Mets’ bullpen.

Lorenzen’s 2021 season was shortened by a baserunning injury, hopefully the last pitcher-baserunning injury with the universal DH likely coming in 2022. In 29 innings pitched, he allowed 26 hits, 18 earned runs, and 14 walks while striking out 21. His ERA was high at 5.59, but his FIP was 4.17, so he’s due for some positive regression.

Lorenzen came up as a starter, so he typically throws a lot of innings from the bullpen. From 2017 to 2019, he pitched at least 81 innings. His ERA also went down each of those years as he got more comfortable in the bullpen. 2019 was his best season, posting a 2.92 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, striking out a career-high 85 batters, and his ERA+ was 160.

He also has a starter’s arsenal at his disposal. He’s got a fastball that sits in the high 90’s, and cutter in the low 90’s, a changeup and slider that both sit in the mid-to-high 80’s, and a curve in the low 80’s that he doesn’t use very much.

Lorenzen didn’t pitch enough to register most Savant metrics, but the few he did have are good. His fastball velocity is in the 69th percentile, and his fastball spin is in the 89th percentile. His max exit velocity allowed was in the 76th percentile.

Lorenzen doesn’t have any options. He could be a setup guy or middle reliever, depending on what the Mets need and the health of everyone else in the bullpen. He has experience saving games, which is good for when Edwin Diaz isn’t available, but probably most of his appearances would come in the 7th or 8th innings.

He’s also played 96 innings in the outfield in his career, 81 of those coming in center field. He’s hit seven homers, driven in 24 runs, and compiled an OPS of .710. Lorenzen could occasionally play the outfield for us and swing the bat as well.

Kendall Graveman had a breakout season with the Mariners and Astros this year. The Mets could use his arm.

The righty tossed 56 innings, allowing just 35 hits, 11 earned runs, 20 walks, and striking out 61 batters. His ERA was 1.77, his FIP was 3.19, his WAR was 1.1, and his ERA+ was a whopping 241. He set career highs in K/9 (9.8), LOB% (81.6%), and HR/9 (0.5).

He is another reliever who is primarily a ground ball specialist. 55% of his outs come on the ground. You’ll notice that his FIP is almost double his ERA, that’s because his defenses in Seattle and Houston helped him save runs.

Graveman’s Savant page looks really good. He’s 79th percentile in average exit velocity, 75th percentile in hard hit percentage, 69th percentile in xwOBA and xERA, 67th percentile in xBA, 88th percentile in xSLG, 86th percentile in barrel percentage, 77th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 68th percentile in chase rate. He is a master of avoiding hard contact and getting swings and misses out of the zone.

Graveman is a two-pitch pitcher. He has a fastball that sits in the high 90’s that he uses 72% of the time. Then he goes to a wipeout slider in the high 80’s as his swing-and-miss pitch. He has a changeup and curveball, but he basically doesn’t need or use them.

Graveman doesn’t have any options. He’s another guy who has some experience being a closer (he had 10 saves for Seattle in the first half), but on the Mets, he’d be another 7th or 8th inning setup guy.

Tony Disco could be twirling for the Mets next year.

The righty tossed 167.2 innings, gave up 141 hits, 59 earned runs, 42 walks, and struck out 152 batters. His ERA was 3.17, his FIP was 3.62, his WHIP was 1.09, his ERA+ was 129, and his WAR was 3.0.

The Baseball Savant metrics didn’t love DeSclafani. They liked his walk percentage (80th percentile, his fastball velocity (63rd percentile), and his xwOBA and xERA (both 58th percentile). Other than that, most stats were in the 40th-50th percentile range. That’s pretty typical for a ground ball pitcher, since they don’t really get swings and misses. He also benefitted from a .257 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

DeSclafani throws four pitches. He’s got a fastball in the mid 90’s, a slider and changeup in the high 80’s, and a big curveball in the low 80’s. He mixes his pitches well and gets about 44% of his outs on the ground. He’s good at getting medium contact (about 53% of the time) and getting hitters to pull the ball (about 40% of the time).

DeSclafani doesn’t have any options, but there’s a chance the Giants will extend a qualifying offer to him. He’s a guy who can eat innings and save the bullpen, and basically the whole Giants rotation will be free agents this winter, with the exception of Logan Webb. If the Mets were to sign him, he would be another middle-of-the-rotation. I think he would be a good fit for Citi Field, given his ground ball tendencies.

Raisel Iglesias is nasty. Signing him would make the Mets’ bullpen dominant.

The righty threw 70 innings in 2021, allowing 53 hits, 20 earned runs, walking only 12 batters, and striking out 103. His ERA was 2.57, his FIP was 2.83, his WAR was 2.0, and his ERA+ was 174. He finished 59 games, earning saves in 34 of those.

Iglesias’ Savant page is almost as red as his Angels jersey. He’s in the 92nd percentile or higher in seven categories (average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, whiff percentage, and chase rate). He’s also 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and xSLG, and 89th in fastball velocity. He’s only got two blues: 30th percentile in barrel percentage and 36th percentile in max exit velocity, which is ok when you throw as hard as Iglesias does.

Iglesias has three pitches. He features a hard fastball that sits around 96 mph. He’s also got a changeup in high 80’s and a slider in the mid-80’s. He generates a lot of swings and misses, striking out about 38% of the batters he faces. When batters make contact, it’s pretty evenly split between ground balls (39.4%) and fly balls (38.7%).

Iglesias is the one closer on this list. Do the Mets need a closer? No. Edwin Diaz is good, albeit shaky at times. But if you look at the rosters of winning teams in recent years, they have multiple dominant relief pitchers that can come in and shut an opponent down. Iglesias, paired with Diaz and Trevor May, would be a stellar back of the bullpen.

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Which underrated free agents would you like to see the Mets add this winter?