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NY Mets Qualifying Offer Battle: Michael Conforto vs. Noah Syndergaard

By Tim Boyle |
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - AUGUST 20: A detailed view of the ball bags belonging to the New York Mets sitting in the dugout prior to the game against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on August 20, 2016 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - AUGUST 20: A detailed view of the ball bags belonging to the New York Mets sitting in the dugout prior to the game against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on August 20, 2016 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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Aug 11, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Mets right fielder Michael Conforto (30) singles against the Washington Nationals during the third inning at Citi Field Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 11, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Mets right fielder Michael Conforto (30) singles against the Washington Nationals during the third inning at Citi Field Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /

The qualifying offer has become one of the best ways for a Major League Baseball team to keep a free agent around for another season without having to actually sign him to a multi-year deal. It’s a way to pay a player a premium price without a long commitment. The New York Mets were able to retain Marcus Stroman for the 2021 season this way. Can they do the same next year as well?

The Mets have a decent-sized free agent class coming up this offseason. Stroman is a free agent yet again but because he accepted the qualifying offer last offseason, he is no longer eligible to get one again.

This leaves the Mets with a few other qualifying offer candidates. As the year winds down, no one seems like a sure bet to receive one.

Mets qualifying offer candidate: Michael Conforto

It seems like a given that Michael Conforto would receive a qualifying offer from the Mets. Even an average year from him would warrant one. If Conforto performed anything close to what the super-optimists believe(d) he could, turning it down would be an easy decision for the team’s longtime right fielder.

Conforto has done very little to guarantee himself much of anything this winter. Finishing off one of the worse seasons of his career, a qualifying offer would be a massive overpayment.

The qualifying offer for 2022 will be close to the $18.9 million it was set at last winter. Is Conforto worth this amount?

I understand both arguments. The Mets get the benefit of having Conforto for another year without the risk of seeing him flounder yet again and possibly head toward an early-career decline. On the other hand, why reward a player for such a bad year with any massive sum at all?

Conforto has years of baseball left to play. Because the Mets may only have interest in handing out one of these offers, he may not even get a chance to turn it down or accept it.

The team does, after all, have another younger first-time free agent that the qualifying offer could make sense for.

Jul 18, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard ((34) walks in the outfield before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 18, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard ((34) walks in the outfield before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Mets qualifying offer candidate: Noah Syndergaard

Will we actually see Noah Syndergaard pitch a game for the Mets this year? Time will tell. Setbacks on and off the field have delayed his return to MLB action. Can you believe he hasn’t pitched a big league game for almost two years now?

The Mets have a massive Syndergaard decision to make this offseason. It all starts with whether or not they think he’s worth a qualifying offer. We can view this as a game of chess. By not extending him the offer, they risk Thor leaving and signing elsewhere. Does he get a better deal from another team? Worse yet, does he feel slighted and sign with another club out of spite?

Giving a guy coming off such a major injury any sort of commitment is a huge risk for the Mets. Syndergaard has cashed in for two straight years while rehabbing. We can’t put him at fault for this. That’s just the way contracts are structured. Injured players have bills, too.

Syndergaard hitting the open market should intrigue a lot of teams. For years, we’ve waited for him to put together some kind of Cy Young-worthy season. Yet to accomplish this, he is still highly-regarded and someone I believe could get a fat contract on the open market. A team with money and patience could even add an incentive for a second season.

The Mets should be big players in free agency and the trade market this offseason. Before they start adding, they’ll need to make an educated guess on Syndergaard’s health and future. It’s a scary thought because there hasn’t been much at all to go on for a long time.

WEST PALM BEACH, FL – MARCH 08: A detailed view of the hat, sunglasses and glove of a New York Mets player in the dugout steps during the spring training game at FITTEAM Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on March 8, 2018 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by B51/Mark Brown/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
WEST PALM BEACH, FL – MARCH 08: A detailed view of the hat, sunglasses and glove of a New York Mets player in the dugout steps during the spring training game at FITTEAM Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on March 8, 2018 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by B51/Mark Brown/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** /

Which Mets player gets the qualifying offer?

The other Mets free agents this winter are either ineligible for the qualifying offer or unworthy. Javier Baez would fit in as a candidate but because he was traded mid-year, he’s not someone the Mets can keep around this way.

Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia are the two highest-paid players reaching free agency this winter. You don’t need to spend more than a few innings watching baseball to know they’re not getting the qualifying offer.

Everyone else is a role-player for this team. As great as Aaron Loup is, he’s not about to get a record-setting contract for a middle reliever.

Narrowed down, the Mets have a pair of qualifying offer candidates. Extending each the offer would be foolish on the part of the front office if both accept it. Putting around $40 million in those two players feels like a mistake waiting to happen.

Between Conforto and Syndergaard, the qualifying offer is going to come down to a few major factors. One is Syndergaard’s health. The other is what the Mets plan to do to replace either if they leave.

The Mets do appear to have a better plan in place to move forward without Syndergaard but that could simply be because they have done so for a while now. They could go into 2022 with a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill, and a re-signed Marcus Stroman or even another body.

In right field, it’s a little harder to replace Conforto; even a more depleted one. The team does have a few internal options yet none quite measure up to what Conforto can do in an average season.

If I’m sitting in the general manager’s chair, I’d try to keep them both. If I can only give the qualifying offer to one, it’s going to Conforto. At least I know the chances of him remaining on the field are greater.

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Which of these two players would you give the qualifying offer to? Furthermore, would you extend it to both and risk a big chunk of your payroll going to this pair of uncertainties?

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