NY Mets Free Agent Class of 2023: 3 big first time free agents

The 2022 free agent class for the New York Mets includes a couple of notable guys. You’ve read about them plenty on Rising Apple. In the coming months, you’ll probably see a lot more.

Something I don’t think too many people have thought about is the following winter’s class of baseball nomads. A group that includes the conclusion of some major league contracts and opt-outs, there are three notable guys reaching free agency for the first time.

Fast-forwarding about 14 months into the future, these three big name Mets have yet to establish themselves as long-term options. Quality at times, what does the future hold for them?

Mets closer Edwin Diaz is a free agent after 2022 and his value continues to fluctuate

One September, I went to my pediatrician. I was around 14 at the time. All I remember was him telling me that “most boys lose weight over the summer, you gained 20 pounds.”

What does this have to do with Edwin Diaz? My weight, like his value, was constantly fluctuating as a teenager. It’s a little more stable now but that’s because I got my act together and figured out what was wrong.

Diaz, on the other hand, hasn’t quite mastered his diet. His 2019 and 2020 seasons couldn’t have been more different. In 2021, he has been as dominant as he has been dangerous.

Overall numbers for Diaz in 2021 probably won’t look too good. What could this possibly mean for his first free agency contract after the 2022 season?

There’s a lot riding on how Diaz performs next year. Health isn’t really an issue like it is with so many other free agents. He has managed to stay on the field, much to the chagrin of some fans who enjoy booing him from the Citi Field grandstand.

With a closer like Diaz, I’m always hesitant to sign him to a long-term deal. Closers can fade fast and Diaz is definitely the type of pitcher that could flame out quickly.

Even the best closers seem to change uniforms often. Craig Kimbrel, Billy Wagner, Francisco Rodriguez, etc. were all constantly finding new homes. I do think Diaz has a few years left to be a closer. However, given the history closers have even in recent years, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mets let him walk away.

An investment in Seth Lugo could be a dangerous mistake by the Mets

If the Mets do let Diaz walk, they might be able to convince Seth Lugo to become the new closer. This has its own risk. Lugo hasn’t closed much in his career and his partially torn UCL is a concern we’re all just waiting to backfire. Plus, Lugo has made a career out of pitching more than one inning in relief and not on consecutive days.

Although Lugo could seek a new deal from another team with a chance to start, it might be tempting enough to stay in New York if he gets closer dollars. I’m not opposed to this at all. Lugo will be an older free agent by that point and possibly an equally as effective ninth-inning man at a cheaper rate.

As recently as 2019, Lugo felt like a definite bullpen piece to build around. Things haven’t changed drastically. He has missed too much time in 2021 to really feel any different. Not quite as dominant in his opportunities this year, Lugo remains effective and reliable—for the most part.

When it comes to offseason decisions after 2022, the bullpen has some huge ones. Trevor May is also a potential free agent. I don’t foresee the Mets re-signing all three of these guys nor should they have the need to. By then, the franchise needs to have developed a reliever in their own system to replace the quality innings these three can offer.

Health will play a major factor into Lugo’s future with the Mets and in the big leagues as a whole. An older free agent yet not so ancient he’ll have to settle for an unfriendly deal, I think Lugo may have just as much to say about what team he pitches for in 2023 as the Mets do. His desired role will play a big part.