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NY Mets Free Agent Class of 2023: 3 big first time free agents

By Tim Boyle |
Jul 25, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) reacts after recording a save in a 5-4 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 25, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) reacts after recording a save in a 5-4 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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Jul 17, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) gestures to the outfield against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at PNC Park. Pittsburgh won 9-7. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 17, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) gestures to the outfield against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at PNC Park. Pittsburgh won 9-7. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

The 2022 free agent class for the New York Mets includes a couple of notable guys. You’ve read about them plenty on Rising Apple. In the coming months, you’ll probably see a lot more.

Something I don’t think too many people have thought about is the following winter’s class of baseball nomads. A group that includes the conclusion of some major league contracts and opt-outs, there are three notable guys reaching free agency for the first time.

Fast-forwarding about 14 months into the future, these three big name Mets have yet to establish themselves as long-term options. Quality at times, what does the future hold for them?

Mets closer Edwin Diaz is a free agent after 2022 and his value continues to fluctuate

One September, I went to my pediatrician. I was around 14 at the time. All I remember was him telling me that “most boys lose weight over the summer, you gained 20 pounds.”

What does this have to do with Edwin Diaz? My weight, like his value, was constantly fluctuating as a teenager. It’s a little more stable now but that’s because I got my act together and figured out what was wrong.

Diaz, on the other hand, hasn’t quite mastered his diet. His 2019 and 2020 seasons couldn’t have been more different. In 2021, he has been as dominant as he has been dangerous.

Overall numbers for Diaz in 2021 probably won’t look too good. What could this possibly mean for his first free agency contract after the 2022 season?

There’s a lot riding on how Diaz performs next year. Health isn’t really an issue like it is with so many other free agents. He has managed to stay on the field, much to the chagrin of some fans who enjoy booing him from the Citi Field grandstand.

With a closer like Diaz, I’m always hesitant to sign him to a long-term deal. Closers can fade fast and Diaz is definitely the type of pitcher that could flame out quickly.

Even the best closers seem to change uniforms often. Craig Kimbrel, Billy Wagner, Francisco Rodriguez, etc. were all constantly finding new homes. I do think Diaz has a few years left to be a closer. However, given the history closers have even in recent years, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mets let him walk away.

Jul 17, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Seth Lugo (67) throws in the outfield before playing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 17, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Seth Lugo (67) throws in the outfield before playing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

An investment in Seth Lugo could be a dangerous mistake by the Mets

If the Mets do let Diaz walk, they might be able to convince Seth Lugo to become the new closer. This has its own risk. Lugo hasn’t closed much in his career and his partially torn UCL is a concern we’re all just waiting to backfire. Plus, Lugo has made a career out of pitching more than one inning in relief and not on consecutive days.

Although Lugo could seek a new deal from another team with a chance to start, it might be tempting enough to stay in New York if he gets closer dollars. I’m not opposed to this at all. Lugo will be an older free agent by that point and possibly an equally as effective ninth-inning man at a cheaper rate.

As recently as 2019, Lugo felt like a definite bullpen piece to build around. Things haven’t changed drastically. He has missed too much time in 2021 to really feel any different. Not quite as dominant in his opportunities this year, Lugo remains effective and reliable—for the most part.

When it comes to offseason decisions after 2022, the bullpen has some huge ones. Trevor May is also a potential free agent. I don’t foresee the Mets re-signing all three of these guys nor should they have the need to. By then, the franchise needs to have developed a reliever in their own system to replace the quality innings these three can offer.

Health will play a major factor into Lugo’s future with the Mets and in the big leagues as a whole. An older free agent yet not so ancient he’ll have to settle for an unfriendly deal, I think Lugo may have just as much to say about what team he pitches for in 2023 as the Mets do. His desired role will play a big part.

Jul 18, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) looks on from the on-deck circle against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 18, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) looks on from the on-deck circle against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Brandon Nimmo is the big free agent bat in 2022 the Mets will need to re-sign

Oh, Brandon Nimmo. What do we do with you? I think if Michael Conforto walks after the 2021 season, the decision is simple: the Mets re-sign Nimmo.

It is way too beneficial to keep Nimmo around with right field wide open. Conforto walking after 2021 could make for an easy transition to move Nimmo into right field and then possibly add someone from the outside.

There are a lot of things the Mets can do. One they will need to heavily consider is a long-term contract with Nimmo.

The thing about Nimmo is this: he changes the direction of the game. Certain numbers of his are fantastic. He gets on base a ton so any metric relating to this looks fantastic. Void of power at times and not exceptional in some areas, it’s little things like making pitchers work and playing like a pest (smiling and all) that routinely helps set the table for the Mets.

I always have a hard time pinpointing what a future contract for Nimmo would look like. Often injured, his numbers fall well short of star status.

When he is on the field, however, Nimmo is uniquely gifted. Players like this are hard to let slip away. Unless something drastic changes with the Mets, I do think they try to keep him around. Probably not a guy who will be in center field by 2023, left field could be the place he finds himself starting if Conforto remains with the ball club.

Next. 15 worst trade deadline deals in Mets history

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