NY Mets: 4 pitchers the team could use even after the Rich Hill trade
Friday, the New York Mets swung a trade for veteran starting pitcher Rich Hill, sending Tommy Hunter and minor leaguer Matt Dyer to the Tampa Bay Rays in return.
Hill is by no means an overly exciting addition, seeing as he’s 41 years old and his fastball averages under 88 mph, but Mr. Mountain is still a really solid starter. His ERA on the season is a 3.87 and his ERA+ is 102, so he’s been about average. With all the injuries the Mets have had, average and consistency are good right now.
With that said, if Hill is the only starting pitching addition the Mets make before the trade deadline, it’ll be a bit of a disappointment. Hill helps, as he can go out there every fifth day and hopefully give the Mets solid length, but the Mets still need more — so here are four options.
The Mets could take advantage of the fire sale in the north side of Chicago and pick up (no, not Kris Bryant) Zach Davies.
The 28-year-old right-hander isn’t anything special, and he’s definitely on the lower end of potentially available starting pitchers the Mets could acquire. This season through 102.2 innings, Davies has a 4.30 ERA, which is just a little bit below league average. It’s not good, but it’s not the worst out there.
More concerningly though is his WHIP of 1.49, which among qualifiers is the third-worst in baseball. His issue isn’t giving up hits, though he’s not too strong in that aspect either, but mainly, it’s walks. He’s allowed 54 free passes this season, which is the most in baseball.
In 21 starts, Davies has yet to have a game without allowing a walk. In all but one of those games he’s allowed at least two, and in 10 of them he’s allowed more than three. In other terms, in nearly 50% of his starts he is allowing at the very minimum a trio of free passes to first base — that’s really bad, there’s no other way to put it.
There is one other thing in that sentence though that stands out though, and that’s his 21 starts — the most in baseball. That’s the one huge plus about Davies, his ability to consistently go out there every fifth day and take the ball.
The Mets have had such little consistency in the starting rotation this season, Davies could provide some. It wouldn’t be an exciting addition, but he could hold down the back end of the rotation until the premier arms get healthy. He’d also likely come very cheap, seeing as he’s a free agent after this season, on a team that is selling and also just not that good of a pitcher.
Calling the Pittsburgh Pirates about Tyler Anderson could land the Mets a solid starter and add another lefty to the righty-heavy staff.
Anderson is a really interesting starting pitching case, because what he’s doing this season is nothing special, but there could be some hidden upside. He has a 4.35 ERA and 95 ERA+, both of which, while not good, are also not horrible.
However, he has two blow-up starts that are really inflating those numbers. He gave up nine earned runs in five innings to the Braves in mid-May, and he gave up six earned runs in six innings to the Nationals in mid-June. Other than those two starts, he’s held opposing lineups to three or fewer runs in five or more innings 15 out of 16 times.
In fact, he hasn’t pitched fewer than five innings in a single one of his 18 starts this season. On the flip side, he’s only gone more than six innings on four occasions, but the way starters are treated nowadays, that’s not really a rarity. Even the great Jacob deGrom has only gone more than six innings in just five of his 15 starts.
Similar to Davies, Anderson could be the acquisition the Mets make if they want to get someone to eat innings in the back end of the rotation until reinforcements arrive. Anderson would also be a rental, as his contract is up after the end of the season.
The difference between the two starters is that Anderson has more upside than Davies. Their overall numbers are similar, but while Davies has been consistently unimpressive (aside from a few gems here or there), Anderson just has a couple of horrible starts dragging his line down.
It is concerning that Anderson’s worst two starts were against the Braves and Nationals because he’d be moving to the NL East and would highly likely have to face those teams again at least once. However, if a deal emerges that the Mets like, that shouldn’t be enough to hold them back from pulling the trigger.
Snatching Jon Gray up from the Colorado Rockies might be the most realistic option for the Mets to land a quality starter.
Gray, who has spent his entire career in the high altitude, is in the midst of what is probably the best season of his major league career. Through 17 starts, he has a 3.68 ERA and 126 ERA+ while also on pace to post the best WHIP of his career by far, currently at a 1.215.
The biggest difference for him this season? His 7.4 hit per nine, which is far and away his best-ever mark. Before this season, he’d never even been below eight.
Across baseball, he’s in at least the 64th percentile in expected ERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected weighted on-base average, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and barrel percentage.
Overall, the assessment on Gray this season has just been that he’s a solid, little bit above average starting pitcher.
He’s also set to become a free agent at the end of the season and the Rockies are all but eliminated from postseason contention, so it’s very likely he’ll be wearing a different uniform come August. The Rockies gain nothing from holding onto him, so they’ll likely try to capitalize on his value now and at least get some package of prospects back in return.
There’s no reason why the Mets shouldn’t at least try to be the team on the other end of the deal. Unlike Davies and Anderson, who the Mets would be trading for in hopes of a resurgence, Gray already has established success this season.
The downside of that is that since he’s one of the better starting pitchers likely available this deadline, the Mets might have multiple teams to compete with. Gray is good, but he’s not good enough to give up any serious prospects for. That, combined with the fact he’s a rental, should mean anyone at least in the Mets’ top-10 prospects should be off-limits.
If a good deal comes up though where the Mets don’t have to give away any even decently big prospects, then adding him to the rotation would be a huge get.
If the Cincinnati Reds decide to sell, inquiring about Sonny Gray is a really intriguing idea for the Mets.
If only Josiah Gray was nearing the end of his deal and not a rookie who just made his MLB debut this past week, because then this article could have been about the three Grays. Alas, we’ll just have to settle for two.
This Gray, Sonny, is the king Gray.
There’s no guarantee he’s even on the table to be traded at the deadline. In fact, it’s probably more likely he stays in Cincinnati than goes, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.
The Reds aren’t having a bad season by any means, sitting a couple of games above .500, but just don’t look like they have quite what it takes to be serious contenders. Sure, maybe they sneak into the playoffs as the second wild card team, but there’s virtually no chance of a run for the title.
Whenever they’ve had that big chance to take hold of the NL Central, they’ve failed. Yes, they’re still in second place in the division and by no means out of it yet, but the Brewers are rolling right now and just look like far and away the better ballclub.
On top of that, the Reds just lost their best bat Nick Castellanos to a deep drive to left field — I mean to a microfracture in his wrist. It’s unknown how long the injury will keep him out, but as of right now, it doesn’t look good.
Again, there’s no guarantee the Reds are even looking to sell, but if this next week goes poorly and they drop even more out of contention, the Mets should immediately call about Gray.
Aside from an infamously bad 2018 in the Bronx and an injury-riddled 2016 in Oakland, Gray has been a consistently above-average starting pitcher since he entered the league. He’s a two-time All-Star as well, once in 2015 with the A’s and again in 2019 with the Reds.
This season in 13 starts and 66.2 innings, he has a 3.65 ERA and 129 ERA+. His ERA is also about half a run lower when he’s not pitching in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati as opposed to when he is.
The big difference with Gray compared to the other three pitchers mentioned is that he’s not a rental, he’s under contract through next season and has a team option for 2023.
He’s not incredibly cheap, but he’s by no means expensive either, being owed just over $10 million next year and $12 million if the option is picked up the following year.
Gray will certainly cost more in a trade than Davies, Anderson or Colorado’s Gray, but he’s also flat out the best pitcher out there and potentially under team control for two more seasons after this one.
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If the Mets can pick him up for a reasonable price, it should be a no-brainer.