NY Mets: Re-ranking the team’s upcoming free agents

Entering the season, the New York Mets had a lot on the line. There were high expectations to open the Steve Cohen era on a high note, given their young core and Cy Young frontrunner. However, for those who are set to hit free agency following the season, the stakes were higher.

For the ten players who could hit the open market, they knew they would be playing for their next contract in 2021. After all, with the Cohen era comes plenty of money to go around. Except, not everyone will receive a lucrative contract.

In other words, the Mets must determine who their priority free agents will be next off-season. And with the first half playing a huge role in the evaluation process, it is time to re-evaluate the rankings of their upcoming free agents.

Honorable Mets Free Agent Mentions: RP Dellin Betances, SP Jerad Eickhoff, OF Cameron Maybin

At this point, everyone is aware of the Amazins’ health issues this year. While some of them have been unpredictable, one player’s injuries have not – reliever Dellin Betances.

When the Mets signed Betances from the New York Yankees in 2020, they did so after he missed the 2019 season with a partially torn Achillies. At the time, there was hope he could return to his four-time All-Star form. Instead, Betances has been a disaster, only pitching 12.2 innings with a 7.82 earned run average.

Clearly, the Mets would be smart to move on from Betances, who has a one-million buyout for the 2022 season. The same could be said about the team letting starting pitcher Jerad Eickhoff and outfielder Cameron Maybin walk.

Despite not appearing at the major league level last season, Eickhoff is having his best year since 2017. Except, Eickhoff’s version of a good year is not one worth re-signing. Across four games, three being starts, the former Philadelphia Phillies pitcher has given up nine earned runs over 16.1 innings.

As for Maybin, the Mets traded for the 34-year-old earlier in the year when they would lose an outfielder to injury every other day. In 28 at-bats, Maybin had one hit and three walks before quickly being sent down to the minors. Come 2022, barring any dramatic improvements, all three of the above will be not Mets.

6. Relief pitcher Jeurys Familia

Where to even begin with Jeurys Familia. The 31-year-old was dominant in his prime from 2015-2016, totaling 94 saves across 155.2 innings. But come the disappointing 2018 season, the Mets traded him to the Oakland Athletics.

Now, when the Amazins’ decided to bring Familia back, nobody expected him to suddenly become that lockdown closer again. Rather, New York needed him at the very least to establish himself as one of their most reliable go-to guys out of the bullpen.

Come 2019, Familia seemed to be a shell of his former self. His return to Queens featured a 5.70 earned run average over 60 innings of work, as he struggled to get out of his own way. Between the rise in his walk and hit rates, the fan base quickly viewed his three-year deal as a loss.

Then came the COVID-19 shortened season, where Familia seemed to find his groove again. In 26.2 innings, Familia posted a 3.71 earned run average, becoming that quality reliever the Mets wanted to begin with. Then again, questions arose as to if he could sustain this success over a full season.

Well, doubters now have their answer. Familia has found a way to pitch his way out of difficult situations and has been one of the more consistent arms out of the bullpen in 2021. On the year, he has a 3.56 earned run average in 31 games, as his contract has finally paid off.

At this point, who knows what Familia’s future may hold? Chances are the Mets, more specifically their fan base, would not want to see him on another multi-year deal again. At the same time, maybe a one-year deal could be in the realm of possibility.

5. Infielder Jonathan Villar

Like Kevin Pillar, Jonathan Villar was brought in for his leadership, experience, and versatility, given he can play across the infield. For a guy who was brought in as a bench player, Villar’s performance has been welcomed as injuries tore through the lineup.

After losing J.D. Davis and Luis Guillorme, Villar became a regular for the Amazins’. From the big hits to being able to steal bases, Villar has been able to do it all for the Mets.

This season, over 72 games, Villar has smashed 10 home runs and batted in 20 runs. His slugging percentage of .423 is even his best since 2019 when he played in all 162 games for the Baltimore Orioles.

There is no questioning Villar’s performance, as he has been the leader of the “bench mob” mentality the Mets have had this season. Bringing him back in a similar role on the bench would be smart, but at what cost?

There are two things to consider regarding Villar’s future as a Met. The first is the return of Robinson Cano, which will further crowd the infield. Secondly is the young talent that Villar’s roster spot could be blocking come 2022.

Next year, the Mets could see as many as three of their top prospects hit the majors. Shortstop Ronny Mauricio, third baseman Brett Baty, and third baseman Mark Vientos all have high upside and play positions that Villar does for New York.

Thus, the question becomes does Villar even consider re-signing knowing these players are on the verge of taking his at-bats?

4. Relief pitcher Aaron Loup

Since the MLB implemented the three-batter minimum rule, the use of arms out of the bullpen has changed significantly. It is no longer about having specific guys who can get out a left or right-handed batter It is about each guy being able to complete an inning of work.

For the Mets, they needed to replace their go-to southpaw out of the pen, Justin Wilson, this off-season. The team could have gone out and spent big on his replacement, with relievers like Brad Hand having been available.

Ultimately, the Mets landed on 33-year-old Aaron Loup, who owns a 3.23 career earned run average. Little did they know though he would go onto being their best reliever.

As things stand, Loup owns a career-low 1.45 earned run average over 31 innings of work in 34 games. His 1.66 FIP and 272 ERA+ are the best numbers of his 10-year career, and he does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Since May 22nd, Loup has only given up one run in 19 appearances.

Last season, Loup hinted at this production level as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. In the shortened season, he had a 2.52 earned run average, but nobody could have predicted how efficient he has been this year.

Again, Loup is going to be well into his 30s come 2022 and is certainly going to want a raise from the three million he is currently being paid. Nevertheless, with no other left-handed bullpen relievers as reliable as him on the roster, New York must find a way to bring him back.

3. Outfielder Michael Conforto

Entering the season, the Mets offense had high expectations, and outfielder Michael Conforto was a big reason for it. The outfielder was coming off a stellar year at the plate in 2020, where he hit for a career-high .322 average and his highest SLG and OPS since his 2017 All-Star campaign.

Not to mention, Conforto had more on the line than anyone this season. Due to hit free agency for the first time in his career next off-season, Conforto hoped that agent Scott Boras would be able to land him a massive payday. One that may even have been too pricey for Steve Cohen.

That being said, to say his season to date has been underwhelming for all parties would be an understatement.

His batting average is down to a career-low .206. Conforto has only hit six home runs and batted in 24 runs in 58 games, both being lower numbers than he had in 54 games in the pandemic shortened season. He, like many Mets, has also spent time on the injured list with a hamstring injury that sidelined him for over a month.

Of late, his play has been better. In his last seven games, Conforto has four home runs, eight runs batted in, and eight hits in 30 at-bats. Yet, at this point, barring a dramatic turnaround in the second half, his value has diminished significantly.

Luckily for the Mets, this may mean that they can afford to retain him next off-season. Given his down year, he may look for that one-year prove-it deal where he can regain his value. And there is no reason why that cannot come while still in a Mets uniform.

2. Starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard

Without a doubt, Noah Syndergaard is the biggest wild card not only for the 2021 Mets but for their upcoming free agent class. That is the case when a former All-Star pitcher has not pitched since the conclusion of the 2019 season.

Syndergaard has been out for over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery prior to the 2020 season. It also does not help that the last time he was seen on the mound, he was not the ace he was in years prior.

Looking back on his 2019 season, it is easily the worst of his career so far. Despite pitching a career-high 197.2 innings, Syndergaard’s 4.28 earned run average and 3.60 FIP made for a disappointing campaign.

At the same time, everyone around baseball knows the potential that Syndergaard has. Over his first four years in the majors, Syndergaard was an ace who was in line to one day be a regular in Cy Young conversation and be the starter the Mets could never let go.

So, where does that leave Syndergaard now?

Well, first things first is that Syndergaard needs to pitch in 2021. Currently, New York hopes to get “Thor” back in September, which would be a major boost to their rotation for the home stretch of the regular season. It would also give him the opportunity to prove not only his 2019 season was a fluke, but that his injury is behind him.

Again though, this is all assuming he returns. If Syndergaard never takes the mound this year, his free agency outlook dramatically changes from a long-term deal to a short-term one. In that scenario, the Mets could offer a qualifying offer to Syndergaard, giving the 28-year-old the opportunity to get that multi-year deal after getting back into form.

1. Starting pitcher Marcus Stroman

Last but certainly not least is Marcus Stroman, who is the perfect example of a player betting on himself by taking that one-year prove-it deal.

Last year, Stroman never pitched for the Mets, as he opted out due to COVID-19 concerns. Quickly, fans turned on him because he was set to hit the market. In the end, Stroman returned to the Mets on a qualifying offer, giving him the chance to cash in the next off-season.

And with the way he has pitched in 2021, Steve Cohen must be ready to give Stroman a blank check following the season. Stroman not only has been a great presence in the locker room and has become a fan favorite, but he has been exactly what New York needed behind Jacob deGrom.

At 30-years-old, Stroman is having arguably the best year of his career. Over 20 starts, Stroman has pitched 111.1 innings, with a 2.59 earned run average and 1.08 WHIP. Had it not been for the elite pitching this year in the National League, Stroman would have been an All-Star any other year.

When the Mets traded for Stroman from the Toronto Blue Jays at the 2019 trade deadline, many questioned the move. Especially considering the Mets did not have a strong defense at the time, which for a pitcher who is not a strikeout specialist, is vital to his success.

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Today, Stroman is pitching like an ace for the Mets and has been exactly what the doctor ordered given their injury issues this season. He has been the embodiment of the perseverance this team has played with, and the Amazins’ need to make locking him up long-term their top priority next off-season.