NY Mets: Looking at the Mets chances to win the division

Before the season, if you had told me that the New York Mets would be sitting in first place in July, I would’ve been thrilled. Going into the season, the National League East was expected to be one of, if not the toughest division in the game. While the Braves have dominated the division the last couple of years, there seemed to be arguments for four different possible division winners.

Due to a ton of injuries in this division and a lot of underperforming stars, the National League East has been probably the worst division in baseball.

The Mets are currently in first place in the division and have been for pretty much the entire season. However, there are threats. Due to the Francisco Lindor and Jacob deGrom injuries, the Mets’ path back to the postseason becomes a lot tougher.

Because of those injuries, I’m fairly confident that there will be at least three and probably four buyers in this division. The only team I am positive will be selling is the last-place Marlins.

A lot of what will happen in this division will depend on what happens in the trade deadline for the Mets and everyone else.

As the rosters are currently constructed, even with the injuries the Mets have, I believe this is their division to lose.

Before the all-star break, the Mets had four games at home against the Pirates. They split those four games. Following the break, they had three games in Pittsburgh against those same Pirates. They lost two of three.

I expected the Mets to take at the bare minimum five or six of those games, and they only ended up winning three. This caused the division lead after the Pirates series to sit at just two games instead of the six or seven I was expecting. If this isn’t a wake-up call to GM Zack Scott and owner Steve Cohen that moves really need to be made, I don’t know what is.

If Cohen can flex his financial muscles and acquire a big bat and a much-needed rotation arm or maybe even two at this point, I don’t see a way the Mets miss the playoffs. However, if they cannot get a bat to help a struggling offense or an arm to prevent the likes of Jared Eickhoff and Robert Stock from starting meaningful games down the stretch, I can see a path where the Phillies, Braves, and Nationals steal this division away.

Right now, I would probably give the Mets a 70% chance to win this division.

Philadelphia Phillies

Going into this season, I expected the division race to come down to two teams, the Braves, and the Mets. However, it’s looking like the race for the division will most likely be between the Mets and the Phillies.

I expected the Phillies to finish fourth in the division because of their pitching as you can see in this article here. I expected the back half of the rotation to be a problem and I expected the bullpen to be a problem. I was right on both parts.

The Phillies can score runs and have two very capable front-line starters in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola when they’re right. Their team defense is horrible and their bullpen is historically bad.

As the roster is presently constructed, I don’t see the Phillies winning the division, even with them playing good baseball currently. However, they have huge glaring holes that can be fixed. If they can acquire a closer like Craig Kimbrel or even a guy like Richard Rodriguez, they will be a much bigger threat to me. Their biggest problem has been closing games, and guys like Hector Neris, Jose Alvarado, and Archie Bradley are just not trustworthy in those spots.

There have also been some rumors of a possible Starling Marte trade, and he would be a good fit. Marte can slide in at the top of that Phillies order and get on base as he has posted a .387 OBP this year. He has also improved defensively, putting up a 3 DRS, after being in the negatives each of the last two years.

The Phillies have been cycling through a ton of different center fielders this year, using guys like Odubel Herrera, Adam Haseley, and Roman Quinn, just to name a few so Marte is definitely a major upgrade.

The Phillies have a shot at the division but would need a lot to go right and would have to make moves to actually win it. They’re easily the biggest threat in my eyes.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves were my pick to win the National League East this season, mainly due to their bats. Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, I can go on and on. For the most part, their bats were doing alright but now with Acuna out for the season and Marcell Ozuna injured and in some legal trouble, the bats are not as feared as they normally would be.

I also expected their young pitching to improve, but guys like Max Fried and Ian Anderson haven’t been as consistent as I thought they’d be, and Mike Soroka hasn’t pitched and won’t be pitching this season.

The major downfall of this Braves team has been their bullpen. Letting Mark Melancon and Darren O’Day walk and not really replacing them was not the best idea in hindsight.

Even with all the scrutiny this team has gone through, the Braves find themselves very much in this division race and buying.

The Braves have already acquired Joc Pederson and Steven Vogt to help their outfield and catching situations. Pederson is a really solid get as when he gets hot, he can hit home runs in bunches. He’s no Acuna or Ozuna, but he’s a solid outfielder. Vogt is a capable backup catcher who’s certainly better right now than William Contreras.

I don’t view the Braves as a threat right now, but if they continue to be buyers and potentially acquire a big bat or a solid reliever, they have a shot. A small shot, but a shot nonetheless.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals are the other team that I view as a very minor threat if you can call them a threat at all. Like the Braves, they have shown in the past they have what it takes, but haven’t shown that this year. I think everything would have to go right for them to win this division.

I think everything would have to go right for them to win it. That includes Juan Soto being Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber hitting homers every day like he was in June, and Max Scherzer continues to pitch like a Cy Young candidate.

A lot of the major pieces from the 2019 World Series team is intact, minus Anthony Rendon of course, so it seems likely that since the division is within striking distance, the Nationals will go for it.

They’re about middle of the pack in runs scored and runs allowed per game this season. The big weakness in their lineup is Rendon’s old position, third base. Carter Kieboom hasn’t worked out and they’ve been running guys like Starlin Castro and Josh Harrison at third every day.

There are multiple third basemen available for the taking like Kris Bryant and Eduardo Escobar that can provide a boost to this Nationals lineup.

If they get a bat and an arm, and the other teams in the division have bad injury luck or don’t make moves, I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Nats make a run.

We’ve seen them make an unlikely run before, maybe they have one more run in them.