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NY Mets: Looking at the Mets chances to win the division

By Zachary Rotman

Jul 21, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets left fielder Dominic Smith (2) celebrates with second baseman Jeff McNeil (6) center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) and first baseman Pete Alonso (20) after hitting a grand slam home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the third inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 21, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets left fielder Dominic Smith (2) celebrates with second baseman Jeff McNeil (6) center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) and first baseman Pete Alonso (20) after hitting a grand slam home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the third inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 18, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets pitcher Marcus Stroman (left) and first baseman Pete Alonso (20) and catcher Tomas Nido (3) congratulate right fielder Michael Conforto (30) after Conforto hit a two run game winning home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Mets won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 18, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets pitcher Marcus Stroman (left) and first baseman Pete Alonso (20) and catcher Tomas Nido (3) congratulate right fielder Michael Conforto (30) after Conforto hit a two run game winning home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Mets won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Before the season, if you had told me that the New York Mets would be sitting in first place in July, I would’ve been thrilled. Going into the season, the National League East was expected to be one of, if not the toughest division in the game. While the Braves have dominated the division the last couple of years, there seemed to be arguments for four different possible division winners.

Due to a ton of injuries in this division and a lot of underperforming stars, the National League East has been probably the worst division in baseball.

The Mets are currently in first place in the division and have been for pretty much the entire season. However, there are threats. Due to the Francisco Lindor and Jacob deGrom injuries, the Mets’ path back to the postseason becomes a lot tougher.

Because of those injuries, I’m fairly confident that there will be at least three and probably four buyers in this division. The only team I am positive will be selling is the last-place Marlins.

A lot of what will happen in this division will depend on what happens in the trade deadline for the Mets and everyone else.

As the rosters are currently constructed, even with the injuries the Mets have, I believe this is their division to lose.

Before the all-star break, the Mets had four games at home against the Pirates. They split those four games. Following the break, they had three games in Pittsburgh against those same Pirates. They lost two of three.

I expected the Mets to take at the bare minimum five or six of those games, and they only ended up winning three. This caused the division lead after the Pirates series to sit at just two games instead of the six or seven I was expecting. If this isn’t a wake-up call to GM Zack Scott and owner Steve Cohen that moves really need to be made, I don’t know what is.

If Cohen can flex his financial muscles and acquire a big bat and a much-needed rotation arm or maybe even two at this point, I don’t see a way the Mets miss the playoffs. However, if they cannot get a bat to help a struggling offense or an arm to prevent the likes of Jared Eickhoff and Robert Stock from starting meaningful games down the stretch, I can see a path where the Phillies, Braves, and Nationals steal this division away.

Right now, I would probably give the Mets a 70% chance to win this division.

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