NY Mets Top Prospects: Major league ETAs for the best on the farm

For New York Mets fans, the “future” has been a source of optimism; a beacon of hope and belief that the team’s current roster could one day grow into a postseason – or championship – contender. Naturally, this hasn’t left Mets-faithful with much cause to be excited about the here and now.

Yet here we are in 2021: First place heading into June; the best pitcher in the game; a lineup loaded with power and personality – heck, even their farm system is filled with potential.

In fact, several of their rising stars turned heads during Spring Training. As things currently stand, the Mets pipeline ranks No. 19 in the major leagues. While that’s not great, it’s also not disastrous.

Although their farm system needs to be reinforced with supplemental talent down the line; particularly with their pitching depth, their current top 5 prospects bode well for the future orange and blue.

Status of the Mets Farm

Per MLB pipeline rankings, the toast of the Mets youth include: C Francisco Álvarez, SS Ronny Mauricio, RHP Matthew Allan, 3B Brett Baty, and OF Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Except for 18-year-old Crow-Armstrong, the other four also rank among MLB’s top 100 list, which not only speaks to the youth of the organization’s rising stars, but also emphasizes the talent level of their top prospects.

Apart from a few less than savory trades made by the previous regime, the old guard can still boast about their two successful MLB First-Year Player drafts completed during their short two-year tenure.

Allan, Baty, and Crow-Armstrong along with several more prospects who rank among the franchise’s top 30 list are reflective of two deep draft classes orchestrated by former General Manager, Brodie Van Wagenen and staff.

https://twitter.com/MetsFarmReport/status/1328735087597395971?s=20

Conversely, the fact that three of his 45 total picks (40 in 2019 & 5 in 2020’s shortened draft) already rank in the top five is either a great legacy for the controversial GM or a testament to how depleted he left the farm.

However, the latter seems a more pessimistic viewpoint as well as an unfair criticism against these three very promising and talented ballplayers.

Although the Mets top prospects are still years away from making their MLB debuts, Álvarez and Mauricio may not be so far away. So, while the current orange and blue continue to captivate fans at the pro level, let’s examine the pipeline and peek at what the future holds in store for this franchise.

Francisco Alvarez: Brooklyn Cyclones High-A Affiliate

Entering his second full season in the minor leagues, 19-year-old C Francisco Álvarez already ranks high on MLB’s top 100 list as the No. 41 prospect in the game.

A native of the Dominican Republic, the young backstop signed with the Mets organization at the age of 17, during which time he ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s Top 30 International Prospects list in July of 2018.

A talented teenaged ballplayer, Álvarez dazzled during his organizational debut before proving himself to be the best Mets hitting prospect as a member of the Kingsport Mets in 2019.

Noted for his work in the batter’s box, demonstrating a powerful bat that could one day fit nicely in the middle of the Mets lineup, his arm strength behind the plate however, remains one of the most significant question marks surrounding the young catcher’s major league aspirations.

Nonetheless, his excellent performance at the plate in the first 15 games of his 2021 season (owning a slash line of .417/.567/.646 with a 1.213 OPS stat to boot) certainly played a part in his recent promotion from A-ball with the St. Lucie Mets to the High-A ball with the Brooklyn Cyclones in late May 2021.

Mets ETA: 2023 September call-up, 2024 Opening Day roster

Since signing with the Mets organization, Álvarez’s position is one the Mets have notably lacked prior to the acquisition of James McCann and emergence of Tomás Nido as an exceptional backup option.

Therefore, I think it’s unlikely Mets fans will see Álvarez in the big leagues until after McCann’s 4-year contract inches closer to its expiration date. At age 19, that seems a good target date to shoot for, as there are still several years of development left for this young player.

But until then the Mets backstop can survive – if not thrive – with McCann and Nido behind the dish.

Matt Allan: Brooklyn Cyclones High-A Affiliate *(Injured List)

If there was one attribute to credit former Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen with, it was his “willingness to fail in his pursuit of greatness.”

Outside of the team’s incredibly exciting summer of 2019 – a period in which they went 46-26 from July-September before the clock ran out on them – there was not much else to celebrate during his short reign.

Except for the two stellar draft classes (’19 & ’20), which were arguably the only good thing from the BVW Era.

Van Wagenen pulled off two deep First-year Player drafts; snagging RHP Matthew Allan in the third round during his first draft as Mets GM.

Before going down with season-ending (and potentially career-threatening) Tommy-John surgery, RHP Matt Allan ranked as the No. 66 prospect in MLB with an Estimated Time of Arrival to the majors of 2023.

Mets ETA: Delayed due to injury. Possibly 2024.

The team’s third-round pick in 2019, is expected to miss the rest of the 2021 season and most, if not all, of the 2022 season, which will push his MLB debut back at least a year if not totally derailing what looked to be a very promising baseball career.

Fortunately, many current MLB stars have had Tommy John surgery during their own road to the show, including current Mets ace Jacob deGrom. This points to a strong possibly that Allan will follow their example.

The hard-throwing, potential ace initially began working with deGrom in July 2020 during spring training 2.0, where he could already dial his fastball up to 97 mph while maintaining the composure of a veteran on the mound.

As an emerging and potentially dangerous right-hand pitcher, his arrival at the major league level is greatly needed. And one that could put the Mets mostly veteran pitching over the top with his services.

Brett Baty: Brooklyn Cyclones High-A Affiliate

“The Next David Wright,” is a very bold claim when comparing an unproven rookie to a former generational talent who will remain a cornerstone of Mets baseball forever. Brett Baty is the No. 83 prospect in MLB in addition to being yet another of the previous regime’s prize draft selections in 2019.

Taken in the first round at No. 12 overall, Baty has risen through the Mets developmental system with the aid of his smooth left-handed swing and ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. For a young player to demonstrate those refined attributes at this stage of game bodes well for his future development into an everyday third baseman.

Conversely, his continued rise and expected success throughout the Mets farm system also creates a competitive dynamic between himself and Ronny Mauricio, who is likely to make his MLB debut before Baty and compete for a starting job in the hot corner.

Mets ETA: 2024 Opening Day roster

If both players turn out to be the stars the organization believes they can develop into, this could create a healthy competition over who will be the team’s everyday third baseman for years to come, while also strengthening the team’s talent pool and infield depth.

In 51 games in 2019, Baty rose through three minor league levels (The Gulf Coast League Mets, The Kingsport Mets, and The Brooklyn Cyclones) before landing in Brooklyn at the end of 2019 where he currently plays in 2021.

In 188 total ABs through these three levels, Baty hit 7 home runs while driving in 33 RBI for a total BA of .234.

Through his first 17 games in Brooklyn this season, he’s owned an improved .339 / .452 / .424 slash line to start his season High-A ball. Next step will be Double-A baseball and – depending on how he does there – a brief stint in Triple-A or right on to The Show.

https://twitter.com/SNYtv/status/1145807791698804736?s=20

He’s a great player we acquired thanks to an imperfect General Manager. Still, his continued success will certainly bolster the argument that BVW’s drafts remain his only viable attribute.

Pete Crow-Armstrong: St. Lucie Mets Low-A Affiliate *(Injured List)

To describe Mets No. 5 prospect OF Pete Crow-Armstrong in one word would be simple: Athletic. Two words? Contact hitter.

Although the 19-year-old is a long way from making his MLB debut, he remains one of the highest-ranking prospects in the organization’s farm system at No. 5; adding to the ceiling of what is, for the most part, a top-heavy collection of prospects.

Although the Mets first-round 2020 pick does not rank in MLB’s top 100 list, his athleticism remains his calling card. And his success is also paramount for an organization starving for young outfield talent.

Mets ETA: 2024 Opening Day roster

Taken with the No. 19 overall selection out of Harvard-Westlake High School, I expect the California native to arrive in 2024, although his position in the outfield is certainly needed now.

Plus, there’s more than enough room for two Petes on this Mets team – one in the outfield and one in the infield – with both hopefully emerging as two long-term and reliable stars. However, it should be noted that we still have a long way to go with Crow-Armstrong – made even longer by recent injuries.

Like Matthew Allan, Crow-Armstrong received the devastating news that his 2021 season would be shut down and that surgery was required. In Mid-May, he learned he needed surgery on his right shoulder.

Prior to that, Crow-Armstrong boasted a strong .417/.563/.1.063 slash line in his first six games of minor league ball prior to his season-ending injury.

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Those are impressive numbers from a young ballplayer bound to return and rise up through the ranks of the orange and blue.