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Mets: Three overreactions from a mixed first week of play

By Nick Porr |
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 10: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets looks on after coming off the mound during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field on April 10, 2021 in the Queens borough of New York City. The Marlins won 3-0. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 10: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets looks on after coming off the mound during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field on April 10, 2021 in the Queens borough of New York City. The Marlins won 3-0. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
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Apr 7, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets right fielder Michael Conforto (30) reacts in front of Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) after striking out with bases loaded to end the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 7, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets right fielder Michael Conforto (30) reacts in front of Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) after striking out with bases loaded to end the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

One week into the season, despite the new faces, the New York Mets still look and feel like the New York Mets. After a three-game series away against the Phillies and two at home against the Marlins, New York sits at 2-3 on the season.

The mixed bag can best be understood when taking a look at Mets ace Jacob deGrom. deGrom is as dominant as ever, throwing 21 strikeouts in just 14 innings of action. Despite that, the Mets have lost both of the games he started.

That’s the Mets for you.

The team has had plenty more struggles than their so-so record would make seem. It took a debatable hit by pitch call to get their win over the Marlins, and a blowout of the Phillies infamously bad bullpen to get their two wins. Things are not looking great in Queens, and it’s threatening to become a problem.

1) The Mets are going to struggle to score all season long

The Mets’ bats are doing alright to start the season, hitting .222 AVG ranked 17th in the MLB. It’s not great, but it’s not low enough to be a sign for concern this early in the season. What is a problem though, is their batting with runners in scoring position.

NY is hitting just .146 AVG w/RISP, 29th in the MLB. That’s the perfect recipe to lose games. The Mets just haven’t been able to bring runners home so far this season, and that problem could plague them all season long.

They’ve stranded an atrocious 9.00 runners on base per game, a number that puts them second-worst in the MLB.

The Mets were 23rd in AVG w/RISP last season (.243), and it cost them chances to win throughout 2020. New addition Francisco Lindor (0-2, 3 BB w/RISP) has not helped the hitting, and returning stars like Pete Alonso (1-7 w/RISP) have not been much better.

If the Mets can’t learn to hit in the clutch, they’re going to continue to have scoring issues all season long.

Brandon Nimmo, of the Mets, rounds first base after hitting a double. Thursday, April 8, 2021Opening Day At Citi Field
Brandon Nimmo, of the Mets, rounds first base after hitting a double. Thursday, April 8, 2021Opening Day At Citi Field /

2) Brandon Nimmo is going to lead the MLB in on-base percentage.

Three things are certain in life: death, taxes, and Brandon Nimmo getting on base.

Nimmo has become the perfect leadoff hitter, getting on base in any way possible. His OPS leads all Mets hitters not named Jacob deGrom at 1.153. Nimmo is also a walk-generating machine, sitting 7th in the MLB with a 26.1 BB%.

He has an eagle eye for pitches and has a great bat to go with it, hitting a .412 AVG on batted balls so far this season. You won’t find a better pair of patience and contact swing than New York’s leadoff hitter. His current on-base percentage of .565 OBP would have by far lead all qualified batters in the 2020 season.

With the Mets’ other core hitters struggling, Nimmo has become a clear bright spot in the lineup this season. He’s got a chance to be their most dangerous lead-off hitter since Jose Reyes was in his prime.

While fans hope the fortunes turn for almost every other Mets hitter, we should all be hoping Nimmo stays batting like the way he is now.

Despite the small sample size, his success feels surprisingly sustainable. He hasn’t been doing anything crazy, just waiting for his pitch and making great contact when the time comes.

Nimmo is a paragon of the importance of patience at the plate. Little league hitters everywhere should take note study the Mets outfielder and try to replicate his approach at the plate.

His numbers make drop a bit from this Opening Week, but expect Nimmo to be a leader on this team and in the NL’s batting statistics.

Apr 10, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Starling Marte (6) reacts after hitting a double against the New York Mets during the ninth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Starling Marte (6) reacts after hitting a double against the New York Mets during the ninth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /

3) The Mets will not make the postseason

Now that the fun of discussing Brandon Nimmo’s hot start is over, it’s time to get down to the less exciting. So far, the Mets just don’t look like a team that can compete in a crowded NL East.

The Phillies look like a juggernaut so far, with a vastly improved bullpen and pitching staff to back their strong hitting. Since getting swept by the Phillies to start the season, the Braves are 4-1 and look like a team ready to make another deep run into the Postseason. The 2-6 Marlins aren’t great; but are still the feisty team that made the Postseason in 2021.

There’s just too much competition in the division right now. The backup they brought in during the offseason to help them separate themselves from the pack isn’t looking great so far. Francisco Lindor is hitting just .176 AVG, and the Mets as a team are scoring just 3.2 runs per game, 28th in the MLB.

That’s not new to the Mets starting pitching, though. It’s a recurring problem.

Just like it’s always been, the Amazin’s starting pitching is their only clear strength. deGrom and Marcus Stroman are as talented as a one-two punch as you can get in the MLB, and Taijuan Walker had a great start to his career in Queens, giving up 2 runs in 6 innings against the Marlins. Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco will be rejoining the rotation soon, and if they are close to what they were before their injuries, the Mets may have the best pitching staff in baseball.

The problem is that the Mets have no run support to back them. It’s been that way for a while now, and it seems like it hasn’t changed.

Next. How Mets pitcher Edwin Diaz can return to his All-Star form

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Without competent hitting, the Mets are going to be wasting outstanding performances from their pitchers all year long. That’s no way to win a division.

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