Mets “Freezing Cold Takes” that did not turn out as planned

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 15: Jason Bay #44 of the New York Mets is walked to the dugout after being injured on a play in left field during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field on June 15, 2012 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 15: Jason Bay #44 of the New York Mets is walked to the dugout after being injured on a play in left field during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field on June 15, 2012 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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JUPITER, FL – MARCH 14: Rafael Montero #50 of the New York Mets throws the ball against the Miami Marlins during a spring training game at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 14, 2018 in Jupiter, Florida. The Marlins defeated the Mets 5-1. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Rafael Montero
JUPITER, FL – MARCH 14: Rafael Montero #50 of the New York Mets throws the ball against the Miami Marlins during a spring training game at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 14, 2018 in Jupiter, Florida. The Marlins defeated the Mets 5-1. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Rafael Montero /

One of the most signature signs of New York Mets fandom is being excited about a player coming to the Big Apple, only to be severely let down by their play or a devastating injury that limits their playing time. No matter who the Mets trade for or sign, there always seems to be an element of surprise with the outcome, whether it’s good or bad.

Similarly, there is a reason why top prospects are exactly that, unproven “prospects” rather than surefire successes. Not every highly touted minor leaguer comes to the majors and immediately vaults into top-ten lists in their franchise’s history. Though much of the Mets’ current roster is homegrown, they have still had several notable prospect “busts” in recent years.

With that, here are some predictions that I, along with many Mets fans, had for the Amazins, none of which came true. Over the past decade and a half, these takes were among the coldest in all of Flushing.

Rafael Montero would have a better Mets career than Jacob deGrom

In May of 2014, the Mets had a couple of pitching prospects that had a good shot at making it to the major leagues. One of them was expected to be the indisputable ace of the staff for years to come, while the other was only called up to fill in when Dillon Gee got injured. In retrospect, it seems odd that Rafael Montero was considered the “cream of the crop” of Mets prospects in 2014 while Jacob deGrom was mostly an afterthought, but that is exactly what the team and fan discourse were like at the time.

The two debuted one day apart. Montero made his first-ever start on May 14, 2014, against the New York Yankees. Despite a solid effort over six innings, with three runs and five hits allowed, he suffered the loss. deGrom debuted the next day and was spectacular, pitching seven innings and surrendering only one earned run while striking out six. He, too, was saddled with the loss.

Montero’s first two seasons in New York were decent, but a pair of ERAs over 5.50 in 2016 and 2017 helped send him on his way out of town. Meanwhile, deGrom won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2014, made his first All-Star team in 2015, and became one of the best pitchers in baseball. Montero later enjoyed a resurgence as a reliever with the Texas Rangers, but there’s no comparison. Despite early predictions, Jacob deGrom has clearly had a better career than Rafael Montero.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 07: Jed Lowrie #4 of the New York Mets in action against the at Citi Field on September 07, 2019 in New York City. The Phillies defeated the Mets 5-0. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 07: Jed Lowrie #4 of the New York Mets in action against the at Citi Field on September 07, 2019 in New York City. The Phillies defeated the Mets 5-0. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Jed Lowrie would get at least one hit as a Met

This really did not seem like much to ask. When the Mets signed Jed Lowrie to a two-year deal in January 2019, he was coming off of an All-Star season with the Oakland A’s that landed him at number two on MLB Network’s “Top 10 Second Basemen Right Now” list entering the 2019 season. He was expected to provide quality infield depth alongside the recently-acquired Robinson Cano, who ranked as the fourth-best second baseman in baseball at that time and add a potent veteran bat into the Mets lineup.

Unfortunately, Lowrie was a mysterious presence in the Mets organization almost as soon as he arrived in spring training. A series of knee injuries and setbacks with ever-increasing severity limited him to just seven at-bats as a Met, all of them in September 2019.

After an initial MRI in February 2019 for a sore left knee, Lowrie had a myriad of injuries over the next couple of years including a capsule strain, a hamstring strain, and something called “PCL Laxity” that I guarantee no Mets fan had heard of before this news broke. Lowrie was such a non-factor for the Mets that his very existence was questioned by the entire fanbase, to the point where our trusty beat writers had to send out tweets like this.

The fact is, I have the same amount of hits in a Mets uniform as Jed Lowrie. Given that he is an MLB player and I am not, this does not reflect well on the Lowrie signing.

NEW YORK, NY – MAY 20: Fernando Martinez #26 of the New York Mets in action against the New York Yankees on May 20, 2011 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Mets defeated the Yankees 2-1. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – MAY 20: Fernando Martinez #26 of the New York Mets in action against the New York Yankees on May 20, 2011 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Mets defeated the Yankees 2-1. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Fernando Martinez would be a star outfielder in Flushing

For several years in the mid-2000s, one Mets prospect was indisputably more “untouchable” than anyone else in the organization: Fernando Martinez. The Mets signed him in 2005 as an amateur free agent, and within two years he was ranked among the top 25 prospects in all of baseball by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. He was also the Mets’ top prospect in both 2007 and 2008. Martinez was a prized possession that many in the organization believed would be the best homegrown outfielder to suit up in Queens since Darryl Strawberry.

After making his major league debut on May 26, 2009, it became apparent that the 20-year-old might have already peaked. He made only 100 plate appearances in his rookie season, batting just .176, before suffering a torn meniscus that ended his season in July. More injuries limited his Mets playing time to just 18 games over the next two seasons, during which he hit an even .200. After the 2011 season, the Mets placed the once-untouchable Martinez on waivers, and he was claimed by the Astros shortly thereafter.

Martinez appeared in 52 games for the Astros as a bench bat in 2012 and 2013. He was then traded to the Yankees, and just when it looked like he might have a chance to revive his New York baseball career, he was suspended due to his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. To date, Martinez has never appeared in another major league game.

It is always a shame when top prospects don’t pan out. Clearly, despite the glowing scouting reports and impressive numbers throughout the minor leagues, Martinez did not quite have all the tools to succeed at the major league level.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 28: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Michael Wacha #45 of the New York Mets in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on August 28, 2020 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Yankees 6-4. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 28: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Michael Wacha #45 of the New York Mets in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on August 28, 2020 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Yankees 6-4. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Michael Wacha would be a dark horse linchpin of the 2020 Mets rotation

I’m a little ashamed to admit that I was completely sucked in by Michael Wacha’s outstanding intrasquad start in the “summer camp” baseball restart of 2020. Perhaps I was just so starved for live baseball that any quality pitching performance at all would have completely wooed me. Either way, his solid outing against his own Mets teammates had me convinced that he was on his way to an excellent shortened season. I even chatted about this exact prediction with Mets beat writer Justin Toscano back in July of 2020.

Alas, this prediction did not come true. Wacha got injured almost immediately after the season began and made only seven starts in a Mets uniform. In those outings, he pitched to a 6.62 ERA and a 1.559 WHIP while averaging just 4.29 innings per start. The Mets’ starting pitching ERA in 2020 was an abysmal 5.37, and Wacha’s underachievement played a significant role in that disappointing outcome.

Wacha never quite found his footing in a Mets uniform and always seemed on the verge of disaster whenever he took the mound to start a game. He was a shell of the pitcher who broke out with an outstanding rookie season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013 and was the 2013 National League Championship Series MVP.

Wacha’s Mets career, for the moment, lasted only one season. He is looking to revitalize his career in 2021 with the Tampa Bay Rays, who have a history of signing under-the-radar pitchers and doing exactly that. I wish him well.

NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 09: Jason Bay #44 of the New York Mets strikes out in the fourth inning as Jesus Flores #26 of the Washington Nationals returns the ball at Citi Field on April 9, 2012 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 09: Jason Bay #44 of the New York Mets strikes out in the fourth inning as Jesus Flores #26 of the Washington Nationals returns the ball at Citi Field on April 9, 2012 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Jason Bay would live up to his MVP-caliber resume and be a star for the Mets

Among the many “free agent busts” throughout Mets history, their signing of Jason Bay on December 29, 2009, is at the top of the list. Bay was one of the top free agents on the market that offseason, having just completed an outstanding year with the Boston Red Sox that ticked off nearly every offensive box: 36 home runs, 119 RBI, a .267/.384/.537 slash line, an All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger award, and seventh place in the AL MVP voting.

Another interesting factoid about the Bay signing: when he agreed to terms with the Mets, he became the first native Canadian to suit up for the Amazins since Brian Ostrosser and his five at-bats in 1973.

However, when Bay arrived in Queens, he seemed to wilt under the lights at Citi Field and struggled mightily. He suffered a concussion in 2010 that limited him to 95 games and just six home runs. The next two seasons were not much better, as he batted .245 and .165 in 2011 and 2012 respectively, never playing more than 123 games or hitting over 12 home runs in a season. Boos rained down upon him after every strikeout, and it was clear that Bay would not provide the heroics that Mets fans had anticipated.

The Mets ended up releasing him from his contract a year before it ended, providing an unceremonious end to one of the most disappointing signings in team history. Bay then signed a deal with the Seattle Mariners. He was released from that contract in August of 2013, thus ending his major league career in anticlimactic fashion.

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Though Mets fans have had many successful trades and signings throughout their team’s history, it’s human nature to dwell on “what could have been” and fixate on players that underwhelmed or were disappointments. Even if one of those “disappointments” allowed Jacob deGrom to emerge as the clear ace of the Mets’ starting rotation for years to come.

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