NY Mets: Three Trevor May predictions for the 2021 season

The first notable addition under Steve Cohen’s reign of terror (terror against the rest of the league) occurred when the New York Mets signed relief pitcher Trevor May. Before they even hired a general manager, the club went out and got one of the better relief pitchers available in free agency.

Anyone who has watched a Mets game in the last several years knows how important a bullpen is. The lack of success so many relievers have had at Citi Field after exiting the home team’s bullpen is alarming.

May will look to change the fate of many of those middle relievers. In 2021, this is what I’m predicting for one of the newest members of the team in Flushing.

Mets use May as the first backup closer to Edwin Diaz

In 215 MLB games, May has only secured seven saves. However, they have happened sporadically over the last three years with the Minnesota Twins.

May saved three in 2018 and added two more in each of the next two seasons. He never was the regular closer in Minnesota. He did show he’s able to get the job done when the regular guy is out of the office.

Knowing exactly what to expect out of May this year can be a little bit of a challenge. He has only three seasons as a reliever on his resume. Two of them included less than 30 innings.

It’s what May did in 2019 that landed him his job with the Mets. Across 64.1 innings of work, he turned in a 2.94 ERA. Along with this, he averaged 11.1 strikeouts per nine.

These numbers are reflective of what he did in 2018 and 2020 albeit during a shorter sample size. Relievers are quite unpredictable. In May’s case, we can expect a lot of strikeouts and some save situations when Diaz is not available.

One major question we could see dangle out there this year is whether or not May becomes the permanent closer if Diaz loses the job. I would put him in high consideration and believe he’ll go into the year as one of the best options for the permanent job.

May will be better than his numbers suggest

In 2020, May finished the year 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. It’s hard to get excited about an ERA like this. He was one bad inning away from having an ERA above 4.00. Although we strive to have a 4.0 in high school and college, it’s not exactly ideal for a reliever. In my mind, this has always been the separator between a good reliever and an average one.

I’m not so concerned with what May’s final season statistics will look like in 2021 as much as I value him getting the job done. If he gives up a run often but does not blow the lead, that’s fine. The Mets didn’t bring him to New York to get three clean outs. He’s wearing orange and blue to stop rallies and bridge those late innings.

It wouldn’t shock me to see May run into some trouble in 2021 and end the year with an ERA worse than the 3.86 he posted in 2020. A few bad bounces or a long fly ball picked up by the wind late in the year can completely ruin those “surface statistics” on the back of a baseball card.

With May, I think the more important numbers will be the deeper metrics. I’ll pay attention to his ERA+, WHIP, and FIP. The Mets are thinking more analytically under the current regime. It’s not so much about how many runs he could allow. Is he getting big outs in high-leverage innings?

A minor concern for me with May—quite frankly, any other reliever—is the number of home runs allowed. Home runs can kill a reliever’s season. With an average of 1.9 allowed per nine frames last year, I would hope a longer year could bring this number down to something close to what he did in 2019, surrendering 1.1 per nine.