New York Mets: Three Carlos Carrasco predictions for 2021

On January 7, 2021, the New York Mets pulled off one of the biggest blockbuster trades in franchise history when they acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for Amed Rosario, Andrés Giménez, Josh Wolf, and Isaiah Greene. Lindor was the clear centerpiece in this deal, and rightfully so, given that he has been one of the top three or four shortstops in all of MLB since he debuted in 2015.

But alongside “Mr. Smile,” the Mets also acquired a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter in Carrasco, who is under control on a team-friendly contract through at least 2023. Nicknamed “Cookie,” Carrasco had a strong bounce-back year in 2020 after missing time in 2019 due to his leukemia diagnosis. He figures to slot into the number two spot into the rotation behind Jacob deGrom, at least until Noah Syndergaard returns at full strength midway through 2021.

Though most of the Mets’ starting pitching accolades will (hopefully) revolve around deGrom this season, I am very optimistic for how Carrasco will perform in Queens. Here are some predictions for how I think his first season in Flushing will go.

There will be less than half a run difference between his and Mets teammate deGrom’s ERA

In 2020, both deGrom and Carrasco had excellent shortened seasons and were among their respective league leaders in ERA. deGrom ended up with a 2.38 ERA, which placed him fourth among NL pitchers, and Carrasco’s 2.91 ERA was seventh in the American League. Some quick math later, it becomes evident that these two quality pitchers were only 0.53 runs apart in their ERAs last season.

Though I always believe in deGrom’s ability to give up a scant amount of runs, Carrasco has the best chance of any Mets starter to give deGrom’s ERA a serious run for his money this season. Carrasco’s lowest single-season ERA in his career was 2.55 in 2014, though he only made 14 starts that season. By contrast, deGrom’s lowest single-season ERA so far was his sparkling 1.70 figure in his first Cy Young award-winning season in 2018. The other members of the Mets’ rotation to start the year figure to be Marcus Stroman, David Peterson, and possibly Joey Lucchesi, none of whom have ever had a full-season ERA approaching Carrasco’s career-low figure of 2.55.

With that said, I think it’s unlikely that deGrom will have an ERA quite as low as 1.70 in 2021 (though a girl can dream), and it’s far more likely for him to finish with an ERA in the low-to-mid twos. Carrasco pitched extremely well in a shortened sample last season, a full year removed from his leukemia diagnosis, and if his health holds up this year he is fully capable of keeping runs off the board and getting within half a run of deGrom’s 2021 ERA.

He will strikeout over 200 batters

Carrasco has never had the reputation of a “strikeout king” across MLB throughout his career. That title has mostly gone to prolific punch-out pitchers like deGrom, Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and Gerrit Cole, among many others. But Carrasco has rather quietly struck out 200+ batters three times in his career in 2015, 2017, and 2018. Two of those years, he finished in the top 15 in Al Cy Young voting. Even in the shortened season in 2020, he struck out 82 batters in 12 starts, which over 32 starts would have put him on pace for about 218 strikeouts.

Following the 2020 season, Carrasco is currently 33rd in strikeouts among active pitchers, ahead of prominent names like Charlie Morton, Patrick Corbin, Masahiro Tanaka, and a little-known pitcher named Trevor Bauer that we’ve barely talked about in recent months. To date, all 1305 of his career strikeouts came in the American League. Now that he’ll be pitching in the NL for the first time in his career, the opposing hitters will be far less familiar with Carrasco’s pitching arsenal than they have been in recent years. This should play to Carrasco’s strengths and bump up his strikeout totals even more in 2021.

The rate of strikeouts across MLB continues to increase every year since 2008, topping out at 42,823 in 2019 which shattered the previous year’s record by over 1000 Ks. 2019 also featured a record 22 MLB pitchers striking out 200 batters or more, a figure that surely would have included Carrasco had he pitched a full season. If Carrasco stays healthy and pitches a full year in 2021, he should be destined for a fourth career 200+ strikeout season.