Mets Contract Predictions: What will the big four free agents get paid?

As the New York Mets put the finishing touches on their first offseason of the Steve Cohen era, the attention shifts from adding talent to figuring out how to keep their own. With pitchers and catchers set to report later in the month, President Sandy Alderson and acting General Manager Zack Scott will have to figure out how the Mets will navigate the general extension period for their pending 2022 free agents.

The average team will have one or two big-name players hit the market, but the Mets are scheduled to have four starting players between the starting rotation and opening day lineup eligible for free agency next offseason – outfielder Michael Conforto, starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard, and recently acquired shortstop Francisco Lindor.

And outside of Jacob deGrom, whose contract extension looms over the Mets in the near future, the Mets are a team with very few commitments over the next three seasons. Ideally, the Mets should try to keep all four players, go above the “salary cap” (more on that in a bit), and then add good players on top of that, but realistically, the Mets should attempt to keep three of the four.

How should the Mets take care of the top four extension candidates? Let’s discuss the four free agents, how much they could receive, and just how much of a chance the Mets have at retaining the player.

Before we jumped into a proper discussion of the top four players, I want to mention a few things the Mets would be wise to consider before heading into the conversation:

Robinson Cano’s return 

While Cohen and Alderson expressed an interest in being aggressive in free agency, the one thing they’ve remained non-committal towards is the luxury tax, which has begun to double as a salary cap for some teams. Until the Mets break that barrier, it’s fair to assume that the competitive balance tax, estimated at $210 million for 2021, is a cap.

As soon as the 2021 season ends, Robinson Cano’s money will be placed right back on New York’s books. Yes, the Mets will get a solid hitter and someone whose value could be increased with the introduction of the universal DH, but for now, the Mets are slated to have $21 million placed back onto their payroll, which shouldn’t hinder the Mets, but could create more work in terms of structuring contracts.

Arbitration and the rest of the New York Mets 

The conversation will veer to four specific players, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the rising salaries on the rest of the roster that could play a factor. Here is a list of players and their potential arb raises:

Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil, JD Davis, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, and Edwin Diaz.

The players that intrigue here are Diaz, McNeil, and Alonso. Diaz’s status as a closer could result in a significant bump in pay, and entering his final cycle through arbitration, the Mets would be wise to see if getting an extension done this offseason would save them money moving forward.

McNeil has submitted two seasons with an fWAR of 2.5 or more, and Alonso has a 50-HR season under his belt, and another strong season could put Alonso in rare air as an ARB-1 player. Diaz’s last arbitration cycle, along with Alonso and McNeil’s first cycles, could be costly as the Mets navigate re-signing players and adding new players while dealing with the competitive balance tax.

The 2022 Starting Pitching Market 

The Mets might have two of the top starters entering free agency, but that market might be a bit stiff at the top. Here is a list of starting pitching options also entering the market:

Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, Jon Gray, Lance McCullers, Kevin Gausman, Charlie Morton, Trevor Bauer, and Danny Duffy.

Some of these players could come off the board – Bauer could decide to remain with the Dodgers, ditto for Kershaw, who should retire a Dodger – but the market should be flooded with starting pitching options, and that’s before you get to players who may be non-tendered or players like Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo, who could find themselves on the trade block next winter.

With those three things in consideration, here is my order for the Mets top four free agents in terms of which order I would prioritize their extensions.

Marcus Stroman

Opening day Age: 29

2020 – N/A (Opted out of 2020 season)

Qualifying Offer: DNQ (received qualifying offer in 2021 offseason)

One of the first players to accept a qualifying offer this offseason, Marcus Stroman comes back to the Mets with a chance to cash-in on a good season. Slotting in behind Jacob deGrom and with Noah Syndergaard out until the summer, Stroman has a chance to serve as New York’s number two starter as they attempt to capture the National League East from the Atlanta Braves.

In the 2019 season, Stroman was great – 10-13, 3.22 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 184.1 innings pitched, good enough for a 3.9 fWAR after being traded from the Blue Jays to the Mets. A quick view at his baseball savant page alludes to what he is – an average fastball (92 miles per hour in 2019), but an elite spin rate (88 percentile on his fastball). Stroman was in the 94th percentile in barrel percentage, alluding to his status as a groundball pitcher.

One factor for the Mets and their pitching free agents – the depth they’ve amassed with years of control. Carlos Carrasco, acquired in the Lindor trade, is under contract for two more seasons with a team option for 2023. Joey Lucchesi doesn’t reach free agency until 2025, David Peterson is locked in until 2026. Recently acquired Jordan Yamamoto has a minor league option and doesn’t reach free agency until 2028.

Between those three and minor league options like Franklyn Kilome and Thomas Szapucki, the Mets will enter 2022 with several options for the backend of their rotation, with MLB top 100 prospect Matt Allan waiting in the wings.

Prediction: Four-year, $80 million with the Houston Astros

With that, I see Stroman testing the market and finding a new home. In a perfect world, Stroman just might be a number three starter on a good team, but good starters are rare, which creates a bump in his market. If someone decides to view him as a number two starter and offer him a rate similar to a decent number two, he could be headed elsewhere. The Astros, a team with their own starting pitcher question marks, could view Stroman as an effective piece to help bridge the next generation of their rotation.

Michael Conforto

Opening Day Age: 28

2020: 54 G, .322/.412/.515, 9 HR, 31 RBI

Qualifying offer: Eligible

When the Mets ownership switched from the Wilpon ownership group to Steve Cohen, a few conversations occurred. The first was how the Mets have viewed as a team controlling everything at the top of free agency and we saw how that transpired – New York did well, but effectively struck out on the top three free agents in this class.

The second conversation was a Michael Conforto extension. With a new influx of cash in the franchise, the prevailing thought was that Cohen, Alderson, and the New York front office would attempt to lock in the 27-year-old outfielder and make him a Met for the remainder of his prime and ideally, for the remainder of his career.

However, as of early February, Conforto revealed that the team and his camp have yet to sit down and broach the topic of extending his stay in Queens.

Though Conforto arrived in Queens a baby-faced 20-year-old in 2015, he didn’t breakthrough until 2017, becoming an All-Star. Since then, the former Oregon State slugger has remained a positive force in the middle of New York’s lineup, submitting three seasons with 25 home runs or more,  crescendoing with a 33 home run season in the 2019 season. Combine solid power and five straight seasons of a walk rate above 10.0% and you have a solid hitter.

Defensively, Conforto has done the Mets shuffle, starting in right field, moonlighting in center field for a spell before moving back to right. There, he’s been a scratch defender, with defensive runs saved having him constantly between 1 and -1. As Conforto moves into his 30’s, a move to left field may be the best option for him, but he should remain in right comfortably through the next several seasons.

Prediction: Six-year, $125m with the New York Mets

After failing to land George Springer in free agency, the Mets should look to lock up both of their outfield options. Not only Conforto but Brandon Nimmo, who has one more cycle of arbitration before reaching free agency. Both players were drafted by the Mets, came through the Mets farm system, and turned into solid regulars with chances to make All-Star games, that’s not common.

With Conforto, specifically, I believe the Springer deal was a decent baseline for a Conforto deal. Signing Conforto for six seasons would effectively keep him through his early 30’s and around $24-25 million a year would be a fine number. I’m deducting a bit off, due to the fact Springer’s value was tied into him being a great centerfielder. No matter, Conforto gets paid like an elite outfielder and, hopefully, finishes his career with the Mets.

Francisco Lindor

Opening Day Age: 27

2020: 60 g, .258/.335/.415, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 1.8 fWAR

Qualifying offer: Eligible

The biggest move made this offseason was New York, slyly, shifting four players to Cleveland for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. The move shifted New York from a team in the middle of the National League to one of the true contenders heading into the 2021 season. Carrasco will play into this as a top of the rotation arm, but the true upgrade is the addition of Lindor.

Before the shortened 2020 season, Lindor amassed five straight seasons with an fWAR of 4.0 or higher. Offensively, Lindor tapped into his power with three seasons of 30 home runs or more, while seeing his walk rate creep closer to 10 percent. Per Baseball Savant, Lindor’s exit velocity has remained consistent – between 88 and 91 – but his hard-hit percentage has jumped from 33 percent to 40 percent, solidifying at 41 percent.

Defensively is where the Mets are viewed to receive the biggest upgrade at shortstop, with Lindor being one of the best defenders in the league. An elite defender, Lindor has amassed defensive runs saved marks of +11 in 2018 and +13 in 2019, and an Outs Above Average of 5 in 2020. All positive marks for a great defender, and should be a modest upgrade over Andres Gimenez and a huge upgrade over Amed Rosario defensively.

Prediction: 10-year, $300 million with the New York Mets; opt-out after year four. 

Ultimately, the Mets should mimic the Manny Machado contract here. Lindor is still just 27 years old, in the prime of his career at a prime position. On the field, I see no reason to think he won’t be one of New York’s best players – offering an elite switch-hitting bat near the top of the order while providing a calming presence defensively in the field.

The Mets also have to consider the off-field factor here. Lindor, nicknamed “Mr. Smile,” is the type of player who can be argued as the “Face of Baseball” for his play and infectious charisma. Moving from Cleveland to New York will open up more opportunities for Lindor to sell his brand, as well as the Mets to offer a superstar player a platform in one of the biggest media markets in the country.

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For that, Francisco Lindor is the number one player for the Mets to extend this offseason.