Mets: Three Brandon Nimmo predictions for the 2021 season

Most New York Mets fans have a love affair with Brandon Nimmo. What’s not to like? He’s always smiling, always hustling, and always getting hit by baseballs. Even the critics love Nimmo with MLB Network’s Shredder ranking him the fifth-best center fielder in the majors.

Sportswriters shed many words speaking of “elite” offensive, peak OBP, and a penchant for always winding up at first despite all other numbers not looking great.

So what is it about Nimmo that is both amazing and utterly frustrating? There are certain things he does so well and there are other things that leave you scratching your head.

One of those things is his unpredictability. What version of Nimmo are we going to get? Will he be healthy? Will he be productive? Can he fix some of his weaknesses?

Well, here’s an attempt to answer some of those questions by making three predictions for Brandon Nimmo in 2021.

The Mets will have Brandon Nimmo as their center fielder on most days.

One of the hottest topics for the Mets during this offseason has been, “What are they going to do with center field”? The thing is, if you ask Nimmo, he’d probably say, “Hello, did you forget about me?”

The last few years have been a combination of players flirting with center field. Whether it was Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and often injured Juan Lagares, the Mets haven’t really been able to lock down a viable option since Angel Pagan.

Nimmo has played there for much of his career even though he profiles more as a left fielder. However, given his speed and athleticism, he’s been the best option on the team for several years.

The thing is, until this became his job full time, no one had really been talking about his defense. It was always, “Well, he’s better than [fill in the blank].” Unfortunately, 2020 saw Nimmo routinely take the wrong or tough routes to fly balls that should have been caught.

Baseball fans are enamored by diving catches but there are two reasons why this happens. 1. The player ranged so far and dove to complete an improbable catch. 2. The player isn’t fast enough or able to get to the ball because they reacted slow and dive to bail themselves out.

Nimmo is reason two.

However, as of right now, the Mets will be going to battle with Brandon Nimmo as their center fielder on most days. Predictions indicate that they could still sign Jackie Bradley Jr. but at this point, it doesn’t make sense. If they didn’t sign George Springer, then Nimmo is the guy.

Plus, as this article was being written, the Mets signed Kevin Pillar which may throw a wrench in this prediction. However, the prediction is for “most days” and the Mets are at their best with Dom Smith in the lineup, which means if there’s no DH, he’s in LF with Nimmo in center. This all goes away if there’s a DH, but it doesn’t appear to be happening. It doesn’t appear Bradley is coming either.

Plus, Pillar isn’t the centerfielder he once was. Is he better than Nimmo? Yes, but not good enough to warrant a complete replacement of him unless Nimmo is on the trade block.

So for now, we can expect to see a lot of late-inning switches to left field with Kevin Pillar, Albert Almora, and maybe a guy like Mallex Smith moving into center. Pillar may also play exclusively against lefties which would make this an off-balanced platoon. For the most part, this is Nimmo’s job to lose.

The final prediction for Brandon Nimmo is he becomes the hitter he’ll be for the rest of his career. He will be a key cog in the Mets offensive in more ways than drawing walks.

At 27-years-old, Nimmo is entering the prime of his career. Since he came up in 2016 he has suffered from a litany of injuries, fighting for playing time, and a pandemic shortened season. However, last year, showed some signs of the hitter he is becoming.

Not only did he have a .404 OBP, but he also hit eight home runs in 55 games. If you average that out, it’s over 20 home runs for the season. If by chance the National League adopts the DH before opening day, that would give Nimmo a greater chance to drive in runs without a pitcher in front of him.

Regardless, Nimmo might trade in some of his signature patient plate approach for the opportunity to hit more doubles and home runs. With teammates like Jeff McNeil and Dom Smith doing the same thing and seeing success, Nimmo may be able to do that. His command of the strike zone and pitch selection should allow him to slap some pitches he may normally take for some cheap base hits.

Nimmo also raised his batting average to .280 last year. Take away the injury-plagued 2019 and the shortened 2020, and he was about a .265 hitter. So the Mets should expect an uptick in the batting average as well, especially since some of those walks will convert to hits.

If Nimmo can put together a season of .277 BA, .385 OBP, 22 home runs, 70 RBI, and 100 runs scored along with at least being base-level defensive runs saved in center field, the Mets and their fans would not mourn the loss of Springer too much.

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Let’s see how things shake out.