New York Mets starting rotation options are plentiful even without Trevor Bauer

Although the New York Mets missed out on Trevor Bauer, who signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the truth is that the team will enter the 2021 season with a starting rotation (provided they do not make any more upgrades or signings, which is unlikely) that is really good. Even with Noah Syndergaard out until the summer, the Mets are looking at a rotation headlined by Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Carlos Carrasco.

deGrom, of course, is the ace of the staff, but Stroman and Carrasco are well above-average starting pitchers. Stroman is a ground-ball pitcher who made the All-Star Game in 2019 and finished that season with a 3.22 ERA. Carrasco, meanwhile, showed in 2020 that his recovery from leukemia did not impact his ability to perform well as he had one of his best seasons of his career. It is reasonable to expect that both of them should be solid contributors to the Mets in 2021.

What will be interesting to see unfold is what the Mets decide to do with the last two rotation spots to start the season. There are four pitchers currently on the roster who can make a case to get some starts early on in the season.

The first one is David Peterson, who should have the strongest case of the bunch to have a spot in the Mets rotation. Peterson emerged on the scene last season, becoming the only starter on the Mets outside of deGrom who was halfway respectable in 2020. Over the course of nine starts, Peterson compiled a 6-2 record with a 3.44 ERA over 49 ⅔ innings.

Mets pitcher David Peterson is the early favorite to earn a starting rotation spot in 2021.

Peterson profiles as a pitcher who does not have a signature pitch. His fastball is considered average, his change-up and slider are similarly effective, and his curveball, probably his weakest pitch, is not what gets hitters out. Peterson is not the type of pitcher who will rack up the strikeouts. However, Peterson has done a good job throughout his professional career so far at inducing high ground ball rates, thanks to the sinking nature of his fastball. At every level thus far, Peterson has recorded ground ball rates at over 50% on a consistent level. Because he cannot get away with blowing by hitters, Peterson has perfected his form and delivery, making it smooth, streamlined, and, most importantly, repeatable.

Another thing Peterson has going for him is his length. As a 6’6’’ pitcher, Peterson has a predictably long stride, which enables him to get a nice full extension when delivering pitches.

If there is one blemish to Peterson’s game, it is his walk ratio, which is well above-average. During the 2020 season, he allowed 24 walks compared to 40 strikeouts. For Peterson to secure his spot in the rotation, he is going to need to keep his walks down.

Prediction: Peterson will receive starts in the beginning of the season, which will determine whether he will remain in the rotation once Syndergaard returns.

The next Mets pitcher that will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot is someone who the team is very familiar with. That player’s name is Jordan Yamamoto, who was traded to the Mets this offseason from the Miami Marlins.

Yamamoto, like Peterson, is very young and has not spent much time in the big leagues. He had an encouraging stint in 2019 and only had four appearances in 2020, most of which were not so great. Yamamoto is 24 years old, and he profiles as a four-pitch starter. He primarily deploys a fastball, curveball, cutter, and slider. In many ways, Yamamoto is cut from the same cloth as Peterson: He is not someone who relies on blowing by hitters with a near triple-digit fastball. Yamamoto’s fastball hovers at around 91 mph.

As a young player, Yamamoto is also a cheap, young, and talented asset. He is under club control until 2026. This means that the Mets, unless they choose to trade him, can hold onto him for a long time. Provided that Yamamoto realizes his potential, there is a strong possibility that Yamamoto could be a fixture in the team’s rotation a couple years from now.

Former Marlins pitcher Jordan Yamamoto is one example of Mets owner Steve Cohen’s commitment to rebuilding the club’s depth.

It is important to note that Mets owner Steve Cohen noted that he wanted to improve the team’s depth. He has been very consistent about this ever since he bought the team. One of his stated goals is to improve the team’s depth, which makes sense because the team’s lack of depth hurt them last year, particularly when it came to starting pitching. The trade for Yamamoto is indisputable evidence that the new ownership and front office is prioritizing quality depth.

With Yamamoto under team control through 2026 and having a minor league option, the Mets could send him to Triple-A without placing him on waivers. And that is what I believe the Mets will do.

Prediction: Yamamoto will start the season with Triple-A Syracuse, headlining the club’s starting rotation. If he performs well there, he will be the first pitcher called up if one of the Mets starters goes on the IL for a significant amount of time.

The next pitcher that the Mets will consider for the rotation is someone who has been with the Mets for the past few years, serving in a multitude of roles for the team. That player’s name is Seth Lugo. He has been called on to be a starter, reliever, and closer for the team. Lugo entered 2020 with the expectation that he would be one of the most important bullpen arms.

However, because of the ineptitude of the Mets free agent signings in 2020 (Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha), along with injuries and Stroman’s opt-out, Lugo was forced back into the starting rotation for a decent part of the truncated season.

Mets pitcher Seth Lugo could start, but his 2020 season suggested that would not be in his or the team’s best interests.

At first glance, Lugo’s 5.15 ERA in 2020 is alarming, but to be fair, that does not tell the whole story of Lugo’s season. Before he was thrust into the starting rotation, he made nine relief appearances, many of which were very good. At that point in time, he held a 2.03 ERA.
With the season being as short as it was in 2020, one bad start could severely inflate a pitcher’s ERA. And that is what happened to Lugo. He had two notably bad starts in 2020, one against the Philadelphia Phillies and the other against the Washington Nationals. The game against the Nationals in September was particularly damaging to Lugo. In that game, he allowed five runs and only got four outs before being yanked from the game.

As a result, Lugo had a 6.15 ERA as a starter and a 2.61 ERA as a reliever in 2020. And it should be noted that Lugo’s ERA ballooned when he was making the transition from reliever to starter. Although Lugo was used by the Mets as a utility pitcher, it would behoove the team to keep him in the position where he was most successful, and that is as a top reliever.

Prediction: Lugo will start and end the 2021 season as a key member of the Mets bullpen and have a bounceback year as a result.