NY Mets: Three Dominic Smith predictions for the 2021 season

Few players across MLB’s landscape thrived more during the shortened 2020 season than New York Mets and their budding star Dominic Smith. The former first-round pick finally capitalized on his potential by becoming one of his team’s more feared and consistent hitters.

There are some unique circumstances surrounding Smith’s position and lineup spot in the new year. However, Mets’ fans should be thrilled to watch the young star continue to develop in 2021 and beyond.

What can we expect from Dom during this season?

The Mets award Dom with 500+ at-bats in 2021

This is a critical starting point. Most players who produced at the level Smith did during the 2020 campaign would be locks for 500 ABs. However, Smith currently finds himself at a major positional disadvantage.

The implementation of the 2020 universal DH was a massive benefit for the slugging first baseman. The expected abolishment of the position will, in turn, negatively affect Smith as much as any individual player in baseball.

Smith is a major-league caliber defender at first base. However, former Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso is expected to fill that role on an everyday basis. This leaves Smith in the unfortunate position of being forced to shift to left field.

While the former top prospect does have over 400 innings of experience at the position since his debut with the Mets, he has posted a disastrous -25.0 UZR/150 defensive metric over that span.

To add to the challenge, the expected addition of an everyday centerfielder will also cause 2020 starter Brandon Nimmo into a potential corner outfield platoon.

However, despite a number of hurdles, expect Smith to break through with a starter’s share of playing time. Why? Because his offensive ability to simple too potent to keep on the bench.

Dom takes over as the New York Mets’ starting first baseman (if the universal DH is retained)

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred recently sent out a memo that National League teams should prepare to proceed without a DH position. However, after the experimental campaign resulted in a rare increase in baseball viewership, it feels as though MLB is trending toward an eventual universal DH.

If this rule change is adapted in 2021, the Mets will have much more flexibility with their lineup. In this scenario, New York fans can expect Alonso to begin the season as the starting first baseman. However, it is not likely this will be the case by the season’s end. I predict that Smith’s defensive consistency will allow him to supplant Alonso as the starter at some point during the season. I also project that Smith will start the most overall games at the position, leaving Alonso to man the DH spot.

Smith has been abysmal as an outfield defender. However, he has proven to be quite capable at his natural position. In fact, his -2.4 career UZR/150 metric as a 1B defender is solid. His flexibility and soft hands also lead him to very solid production at the position in 2019. Alonso, on the other hand, posted a -4.3 in 2020.

Despite reports that Alonso has spent significant time working on his glovework, the DH position would eliminate the need for him to play the field.

Smith gives the team the most consistent glove while allowing Alonso to focus solely on mashing this season. For both their sakes, let’s hope the DH is here to stay.

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