NY Mets: Three Dominic Smith predictions for the 2021 season

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 21: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Dominic Smith #2 of the New York Mets in action during an intra squad game at Citi Field on July 21, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Few players across MLB’s landscape thrived more during the shortened 2020 season than New York Mets and their budding star Dominic Smith. The former first-round pick finally capitalized on his potential by becoming one of his team’s more feared and consistent hitters.

There are some unique circumstances surrounding Smith’s position and lineup spot in the new year. However, Mets’ fans should be thrilled to watch the young star continue to develop in 2021 and beyond.

What can we expect from Dom during this season?

The Mets award Dom with 500+ at-bats in 2021

This is a critical starting point. Most players who produced at the level Smith did during the 2020 campaign would be locks for 500 ABs. However, Smith currently finds himself at a major positional disadvantage.

The implementation of the 2020 universal DH was a massive benefit for the slugging first baseman. The expected abolishment of the position will, in turn, negatively affect Smith as much as any individual player in baseball.

Smith is a major-league caliber defender at first base. However, former Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso is expected to fill that role on an everyday basis. This leaves Smith in the unfortunate position of being forced to shift to left field.

While the former top prospect does have over 400 innings of experience at the position since his debut with the Mets, he has posted a disastrous -25.0 UZR/150 defensive metric over that span.

To add to the challenge, the expected addition of an everyday centerfielder will also cause 2020 starter Brandon Nimmo into a potential corner outfield platoon.

However, despite a number of hurdles, expect Smith to break through with a starter’s share of playing time. Why? Because his offensive ability to simple too potent to keep on the bench.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 16: Dominic Smith #2 of the New York Mets bats against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 16, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Mets beat the Phillies 5-4. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

Dom will surpass 30 home runs and 90 RBI this season

Speaking of offensive production, New York should expect more great things in 2021. Most projection sites have the slugger recording somewhere in the range of 23 homers and 78 RBI. Mets fans should think bigger.

Despite playing just 50 games last season, the breakout star was able to post 10 homers and 42 RBI. Expand that pace across a normal 162 game slate, and Smith would record 30+ homers and 120+ RBI.

Of course, the grind of a long season makes endurance and health obstacles. Baseball projections are also far more nuanced than a simple multiplication problem. However, Smith has shown the ability to take the next leap into the tier of top hitters in the league.

He has the raw power. He also has the advantage of playing in a very dangerous New York lineup that includes dangerous weapons such as Francisco Lindor, Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, JD Davis, and James McCann. The Mets also have a real chance to further bolster their lineup by adding a centerfielder or depth in other positions.

Last season, Smith hit for a .316 batting average. If he is able to remain anywhere near the .300 mark, he should have no issues knocking in a plethora of baserunners. Expect the RBI opportunities to be plentiful as the slugger shatters his career pace for the third straight season.

The 30 home run mark will be the more challenging of the two, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility. I’ll go as far as to say that it is likely.

If you believe that the playing time will be there (and I certainly do), the sky is the limit for Smith.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 20:Dominic Smith #2 of the New York Mets in action against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on September 20, 2020 in New York City. Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Mets 7-0. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Dom takes over as the New York Mets’ starting first baseman (if the universal DH is retained)

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred recently sent out a memo that National League teams should prepare to proceed without a DH position. However, after the experimental campaign resulted in a rare increase in baseball viewership, it feels as though MLB is trending toward an eventual universal DH.

If this rule change is adapted in 2021, the Mets will have much more flexibility with their lineup. In this scenario, New York fans can expect Alonso to begin the season as the starting first baseman. However, it is not likely this will be the case by the season’s end. I predict that Smith’s defensive consistency will allow him to supplant Alonso as the starter at some point during the season. I also project that Smith will start the most overall games at the position, leaving Alonso to man the DH spot.

Smith has been abysmal as an outfield defender. However, he has proven to be quite capable at his natural position. In fact, his -2.4 career UZR/150 metric as a 1B defender is solid. His flexibility and soft hands also lead him to very solid production at the position in 2019. Alonso, on the other hand, posted a -4.3 in 2020.

Despite reports that Alonso has spent significant time working on his glovework, the DH position would eliminate the need for him to play the field.

Smith gives the team the most consistent glove while allowing Alonso to focus solely on mashing this season. For both their sakes, let’s hope the DH is here to stay.

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The Mets award Dom with 500+ at-bats in 2021

Dom will surpass 30 home runs and 90 RBI this season

Dom takes over as the New York Mets’ starting first baseman (if the universal DH is retained)

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