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NY Mets: Three Edwin Diaz predictions for the 2021 season
Back in the 2018 offseason, the New York Mets completed a blockbuster trade with the Mariners acquiring Edwin Diaz. This trade is one Mets fans will remember for a very long time as they gave up top prospect Jarred Kelenic in this deal. Kelenic appears on track to be a superstar in the not too distant future in Seattle. For a team that could really use a great center fielder, that stings a bit.
What would relieve us Mets fans of the pain of losing a guy like Kelenic would be Diaz producing and helping the Mets win a World Series championship. That certainly didn’t happen in 2019.
Diaz had one of the strangest seasons I’ve ever seen. He displayed dominant stuff but was awful. He struck out a whopping 15.4 batters per nine innings but allowed 15 home runs in 53 innings pitched. Diaz ended the 2019 season going 2-7 with a 5.59 ERA and only 26 saves.
He would show flashes of his dominance in 2018 by striking out the side in one outing only to allow a five-run ninth against the Phillies to blow a game or a four-run ninth against the Dodgers to blow a different game. The inconsistency was just bizarre to watch from my perspective.
In 2020, Diaz righted the ship in a big way. Diaz went 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA striking out an astonishing 50 batters in 25.2 innings pitched, a 17.5 K/9. He struck out 50 of the 110 batters he faced. The only flaw in his game from this season was his occasional loss of the strike zone as he had a 4.5 BB/9, but he made mistakes out of the zone not right down the middle of the plate which was a big issue in 2019. Diaz only allowed two home runs in his 26 appearances. He only allowed one run in his 11.2 September innings.
2021 is the year I expect Diaz to cement his place as a top closer in baseball once again. He is on a team that should win plenty of games, and he will presumably have the first crack at the closer job. Hopefully, he takes it and runs. Here are three of my predictions for Edwin Diaz in the 2021 season.
The new Mets franchise single season save leader
After an up and down beginning to his Mets career I believe this is the year Edwin Diaz will put it all together and show us why the Mets gave up so much to acquire him. He is coming off of a great year and now should be pitching with some more normalcy. A 162 game season is expected, Spring Training is expected to start at its normal time, and hopefully, fans can be in the stands.
With the addition of Trevor May and hopefully another arm, the Mets bullpen should be one of the best in all of baseball. They have proven arms like May and Seth Lugo to go along with bounce-back candidates Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia. The Mets have also upgraded the rotation with the addition of Carlos Carrasco and the return of Marcus Stroman. This Mets pitching staff should be very improved which should take the pressure off of Diaz.
With the stuff he possesses, dominance is very possible. The only thing Diaz did worse this season than his dominant 2018 season was control the strike zone. The 4.9 BB/9 must come down. But if he strikes out batters at the clip he did this season and limit the home run ball, the sky truly is the limit for Diaz and the Mets.
The Mets franchise record is currently held by Familia with his 51 save season in 2016. Diaz already has had a 57 save season, the Mariners franchise record, in 2018. This Mets team should win a lot of games this season with the roster they have assembled which means a lot of save opportunities for Diaz. If he picks up where he left off in 2020, 52+ saves and a spot as a National League Reliever of the Year Finalist is very possible.
There will be plenty of panic attacks in the ninth inning of close games
While I expect Diaz to put up one of the best seasons for a closer in franchise history, I still expect to be terrified 99% of the time he takes the mound. While in a perfect world walks wouldn’t be an issue, for them to come down from 4.5/9 to an elite number is just hard to imagine.
Diaz’s walk rate was an absurd 12.7%. According to FanGraphs, a walk rate above 9% is considered “awful.” In order for him to get his walk rate to average, he would need to walk 2.9/9 and have a 7.7% walk rate. He has managed to get to average twice in his career, once in his rookie year and also in his outstanding 2018 season. If Diaz can get to the “below average” category which would see him walk 3.2/9 with an 8.0% walk rate, that would be a win.
I expect there to be a lot of days when there are a ton of base runners. This would remind me a lot of the 51 save Familia season. I remember vividly a game in Chicago against the Cubs where he walked two and allowed an infield hit to load the bases and with a one-run lead he managed to get out of that jam and hold on for the save.
Diaz has had plenty of performances like this where he would lose the ability to throw strikes for a batter or two and then find it and strike out the side. I expect there to be a lot of games that see Diaz allow baserunners due to his inability to throw strikes consistently sometimes and give me some panic attacks before nailing down a save.
Diaz will finish in the top 10 for the NL Cy Young Award
While I personally don’t think relievers should be considered for the Cy Young Award unless they have a truly historic season, the baseball writers who vote think differently. Relievers lately have made appearances on Cy Young ballots including NL Reliever of the Year Devin Williams and AL Reliever of the Year Liam Hendriks this past season. Williams finished eighth while Hendriks finished tenth.
In the season that Diaz won the Reliever of the Year, he was eighth on the Cy Young ballot and even finished 18th on the MVP ballot. Just shows how remarkable his 2018 season was and the potential he has to repeat it this season.
The Mets have all the tools put in place for him to succeed. They have a lineup that should be very formidable headlined by newly acquired Francisco Lindor. They have a rotation that should be greatly improved headlined by two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. And they have a bullpen that should be among the league’s best headlined by guys like Seth Lugo, Trevor May, and of course Diaz.
I project Diaz to put up numbers very similar to his 2018 season. I expect more strikeouts and more walks as well. The key with Diaz will always be keeping the ball in the ballpark. He did a great job with that this past season and in 2018 when he allowed 0.7 HR/9 and 0.6 HR/9 respectively.
In his two worst seasons he allowed more than one home run per nine. In 2017 he allowed 1.4 HR/9 and finished the year with a 3.27 ERA and a 4.02 FIP. In 2019 he allowed 2.3 HR/9 and had a 5.59 ERA with fans booing him as he blew games.
Next. Three David Peterson predictions for 2021
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This season will be the year Mets fans embrace Diaz as he leads the Mets to a playoff appearance after a 52+ save season and a top 10 finish in the NL Cy Young race.