NY Mets: Three Edwin Diaz predictions for the 2021 season

Back in the 2018 offseason, the New York Mets completed a blockbuster trade with the Mariners acquiring Edwin Diaz. This trade is one Mets fans will remember for a very long time as they gave up top prospect Jarred Kelenic in this deal. Kelenic appears on track to be a superstar in the not too distant future in Seattle. For a team that could really use a great center fielder, that stings a bit.

What would relieve us Mets fans of the pain of losing a guy like Kelenic would be Diaz producing and helping the Mets win a World Series championship. That certainly didn’t happen in 2019.

Diaz had one of the strangest seasons I’ve ever seen. He displayed dominant stuff but was awful. He struck out a whopping 15.4 batters per nine innings but allowed 15 home runs in 53 innings pitched. Diaz ended the 2019 season going 2-7 with a 5.59 ERA and only 26 saves.

He would show flashes of his dominance in 2018 by striking out the side in one outing only to allow a five-run ninth against the Phillies to blow a game or a four-run ninth against the Dodgers to blow a different game. The inconsistency was just bizarre to watch from my perspective.

In 2020, Diaz righted the ship in a big way. Diaz went 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA striking out an astonishing 50 batters in 25.2 innings pitched, a 17.5 K/9. He struck out 50 of the 110 batters he faced. The only flaw in his game from this season was his occasional loss of the strike zone as he had a 4.5 BB/9, but he made mistakes out of the zone not right down the middle of the plate which was a big issue in 2019. Diaz only allowed two home runs in his 26 appearances. He only allowed one run in his 11.2 September innings.

2021 is the year I expect Diaz to cement his place as a top closer in baseball once again. He is on a team that should win plenty of games, and he will presumably have the first crack at the closer job. Hopefully, he takes it and runs. Here are three of my predictions for Edwin Diaz in the 2021 season.

The new Mets franchise single season save leader

After an up and down beginning to his Mets career I believe this is the year Edwin Diaz will put it all together and show us why the Mets gave up so much to acquire him. He is coming off of a great year and now should be pitching with some more normalcy. A 162 game season is expected, Spring Training is expected to start at its normal time, and hopefully, fans can be in the stands.

With the addition of Trevor May and hopefully another arm, the Mets bullpen should be one of the best in all of baseball. They have proven arms like May and Seth Lugo to go along with bounce-back candidates Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia. The Mets have also upgraded the rotation with the addition of Carlos Carrasco and the return of Marcus Stroman. This Mets pitching staff should be very improved which should take the pressure off of Diaz.

With the stuff he possesses, dominance is very possible. The only thing Diaz did worse this season than his dominant 2018 season was control the strike zone. The 4.9 BB/9 must come down. But if he strikes out batters at the clip he did this season and limit the home run ball, the sky truly is the limit for Diaz and the Mets.

The Mets franchise record is currently held by Familia with his 51 save season in 2016. Diaz already has had a 57 save season, the Mariners franchise record, in 2018. This Mets team should win a lot of games this season with the roster they have assembled which means a lot of save opportunities for Diaz. If he picks up where he left off in 2020, 52+ saves and a spot as a National League Reliever of the Year Finalist is very possible.