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Mets: Three David Peterson predictions for the 2021 season
The New York Mets were starved for starting pitching depth in 2020, entering spring training with eight starting pitchers and ending the season with about three. After Noah Syndergaard went down with Tommy John surgery, Marcus Stroman opted out of the season, and Michael Wacha got injured early on in the shortened season, David Peterson was next on the pitching depth chart.
He had never pitched above Double-A Binghamton, but he seized the big league opportunity given to him last July. In his major league debut against the Boston Red Sox on July 28, Peterson went 5 2/3 innings and gave up only two runs. He also escaped a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the third inning, displaying the pitching toughness normally reserved for those with the last name “deGrom.”
Peterson had a 2020 season that any rookie pitcher would be proud of, with a 3.44 ERA and a .171 BAA (batting average against) with runners in scoring position as two of his most impressive stats. He figures to be an important piece of the Mets’ 2021 rotation as well. Here are three predictions I have for how Peterson will fare this upcoming season.
His ERA will be third-best in the Mets starting rotation
With Stroman back on a qualifying offer and recent trade acquisition Carlos Carrasco also slotting into next year’s starting five, Peterson at the moment figures to be the #4 man in the rotation. The Mets have yet to add another top-line starting pitcher this offseason, meaning that there is at least a chance that Steven Matz could slot into the #5 spot or fight for it with recently acquired lefty Joey Lucchesi. Though Syndergaard has ace-potential when he is healthy, he will not be back until at least June.
I believe that with some major league experience under belt, Peterson will continue to bear down with RISP next season. His WHIP last season was a respectable 1.208, but he can still improve that figure by cutting down on the 4.3 BB/9 (walks per nine innings) rate that he had in 2020.
I anticipate that deGrom will still have the best ERA in the rotation next season, with Carrasco likely coming in behind him after impressing with a 2.91 ERA for the Cleveland Indians in 2020. Stroman will be coming off of no innings pitched in 2020, meaning that his in-game readiness might need some extra time to ramp up this coming season. If given any time in the rotation, Matz will need to prove himself after a very disappointing 2020 season in which he posted a 9.68 ERA in six starts.
All of this is to say that that Peterson, with a solid season and a slight ERA improvement, could easily bump up to be the #3 starter for the Mets in 2021.
He will pitch a complete game shutout
Peterson’s longest start in 2020 was a seven-inning effort in his final start of the year, in which he pitched seven frames of one-run, four-hit ball that resulted in a 3-2 Mets win over the Washington Nationals. If MLB is able to have a normal spring training and a full season, Peterson should have as much time as he needs to prepare for a full season’s workload. Given that he proved himself by pitching well with RISP last season, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and manager Luis Rojas should have gained some trust in Peterson that hopefully will carry over into 2021.
No Mets starter threw a complete game shutout in 2020 – the last one to do so was Matz on July 27, 2019. deGrom is probably due for another shutout sometime soon, having only pitched one in his entire career, but don’t count out Peterson as a complete game shutout candidate in 2021. He only threw over 100 pitches twice in 2020, which occurred in his final two starts, so he was far from overworked in his rookie season in Flushing.
Though Peterson certainly could have pitched longer in many of his 2020 starts, his stats display that he was rarely inefficient. Peterson avoided any laborious five-inning, 110-pitch affairs in his rookie season, which suggests that if given the chance in 2021, he certainly has the ability to go deeper into games.
With MLB returning to a more normal schedule in 2021, Peterson will be facing teams that he never played against as a rookie. Unfamiliarity between teams often favors the pitchers, since opposing hitters have not had a chance to evaluate and adjust to their pitching arsenals. To many teams in the National League, Peterson is still effectively a rookie next season. If his stuff plays in the rest of the NL like it did with the NL and AL East in 2020, he has a great chance for going the distance at least once this year.
WHIP will drop from 1.208 in 2020 to under 1.1 in 2021
Walks and hits per innings pitched, also known as WHIP, is one of my favorite baseball statistics. It’s both fun to say and an easy-to-understand measure of a pitcher’s efficiency. The Mets’ gold standard for WHIP in recent years was, unsurprisingly, Jacob deGrom in 2018 when he pitched to a microscopic 0.912 WHIP. In fact, deGrom has pitched to a WHIP under one in four of his seven major league seasons, which is a very aspirational figure for a young starter like Peterson to seek to match.
Despite these lofty standards set by his teammate, I believe Peterson will shave some walks and hits off of his WHIP in 2021. Walks were among his weakest areas in 2020, as he had a couple of starts with four walks each and several more with three. Some additional work with Hefner could help Peterson address this minor bugaboo.
His high walk rate could also be attributed to his lack of Triple-A experience. Peterson likely was used to getting more swings-and-misses on his pitches in the lower minors than he got in the major leagues, so some of the breaking balls that were his “put-away pitches” in Double-A might not have had the same effect in the bigs.
Peterson does not have the most overpowering fastball, so he is unlikely to prevent too many walks and hits purely by blowing away hitters on velocity. Still, by pitching intelligently and gaining confidence in his second year, Peterson should be able to cut his WHIP down from 1.2 to a more attention-grabbing figure of 1.1 or better.
Next. Who were the best left fielders in Mets history?
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Peterson is under team control through 2026, meaning that his Mets career is hopefully just beginning. He demonstrated poise and maturity on the mound throughout his rookie campaign, and I anticipate that these qualities will lead to several improvements and notable highlights in his second major league season.