Mets: Three Jacob deGrom predictions for the 2021 season

The career ERA gets even lower

Through 183 career starts, deGrom owns a 2.61 ERA. It’s not the kind of number that may immediately jump out to anyone as fantastic. Every season, there are a handful of pitchers finishing with ERAs lower than this—sometimes by a wide margin.

What makes this number so great is how consistently beneath it deGrom has been. For the last three years, he has lowered his ERA. After the 2017 season, it was 2.98. It’s dropping at a rapid pace and I’m going to predict it gets a little lower at least one more time in 2021.

All deGrom has to do is pitch to an ERA below 2.61. He has done so four times already. As a rookie, he nearly hit it, too.

deGrom may be getting older, but he’s certainly not done pitching excellent baseball games. Nothing in his game should suggest he’s about to hit a brick wall. In fact, as scary as it may sound for opposing batters, parts of his game might get better.

In 2020, deGrom struck out a league-best and career-high 13.8 batters per nine. I know the sample size was smaller. Nevertheless, we need to realize this ace is something special.

At 2.61 (rounded up from 2.608 according to Baseball-Reference), deGrom has the 57th lowest ERA in the history of baseball. He’s better than Cy Young at 2.627!

Sustainability is what will help deGrom become one of the all-time greats at preventing runs. His latter seasons may do a little damage to this number. At least in 2021, I believe he can limbo and go even lower.

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What are your 2021 deGrom predictions?