Mets: Three Jacob deGrom predictions for the 2021 season

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Aug 28, 2018; Chicago, IL, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob DeGrom (48) pitches during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports /

Three predictions for what we will see from New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom in 2021.

The 2021 MLB season remains somewhat of a mystery given the current state of the world. Will we get 162 New York Mets games or will we settle for a bit less? Either way, one thing we do know, when Jacob deGrom pitches, he gives the team a chance to win.

From now until Opening Day—whenever that may end up being—the Rising Apple team is going to provide regular predictions for individual players.

Some of these predictions we’ll put in permanent marker, etch in stone, and nail it shut before burying it in the ground. In October, you can dig it up and see how right we were. Or maybe enjoy a good laugh as to how much we missed the mark.

We begin our predictions with three for the ace of the club, deGrom.

A Cy Young runner-up

After back-to-back Cy Young wins in 2018 and 2019, deGrom settled for a third-place finish in 2020. I don’t think too many people cried foul. Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish both outpitched him statistically.

In 2021, I think deGrom climbs up one spot and is the runner-up for the Cy Young. Although I don’t think he’ll be hurt by owning two of those trophies already, I do believe voters tend to lean toward handing it over to a new name. If all things are equal, deGrom will not get votes over the other guy.

Finishing second in the Cy Young vote doesn’t mean deGrom’s season will be a disappointment. He can still have an excellent year even if the end result isn’t some personal hardware added to his collection.

I have two more predictions for deGrom in 2021. Hopefully, they get a little more excited.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 26: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the Washington Nationals during game 1 of a double header at Nationals Park on September 26, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) /

A lot more wins than we are used to seeing

deGrom’s personal-high in wins after seven seasons is 15. It’s not a remarkably high number. Oddest of all, he won those 15 games in 2007 when his ERA was at a career-high of 3.53 and the team around him was at their worst.

Because of his great talent, deGrom was able to scratch together those 15 victories before the year was through.

In 2021, with what will potentially be the best roster around him since his 2014 debut, I expect to see more deGrom wins than ever before. I know wins aren’t supposed to matter for starting pitchers. And even if he doesn’t achieve this feat, we can still be thrilled with how the year goes.

To accomplish this, deGrom would obviously need as many starts as possible. Another drastically shortened season will steal away any chance from winning more than his 162 average of 13. This is probably a good number to reach for as it would overtake his 2018 and 2019 win totals.

Something I would love to see for deGrom at some point is a 20-win season. I think those are beginning to become even fewer in the baseball world. deGrom definitely has an opportunity to do it at some point. The Mets offense and bullpen will need to be at their best.

I don’t think we see deGrom achieve this in 2021. I would happily take being wrong if it did mean deGrom doubles his 2018 win total.

deGrom’s unselfish goal has always been to help his team win and not necessarily add a “W” to his own stat sheet. He’ll continue to do this. With any luck, his teammates help him out more than usual.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 21: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays at Citi Field on September 21, 2020 in New York City. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the New York Mets 2-1. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

The career ERA gets even lower

Through 183 career starts, deGrom owns a 2.61 ERA. It’s not the kind of number that may immediately jump out to anyone as fantastic. Every season, there are a handful of pitchers finishing with ERAs lower than this—sometimes by a wide margin.

What makes this number so great is how consistently beneath it deGrom has been. For the last three years, he has lowered his ERA. After the 2017 season, it was 2.98. It’s dropping at a rapid pace and I’m going to predict it gets a little lower at least one more time in 2021.

All deGrom has to do is pitch to an ERA below 2.61. He has done so four times already. As a rookie, he nearly hit it, too.

deGrom may be getting older, but he’s certainly not done pitching excellent baseball games. Nothing in his game should suggest he’s about to hit a brick wall. In fact, as scary as it may sound for opposing batters, parts of his game might get better.

In 2020, deGrom struck out a league-best and career-high 13.8 batters per nine. I know the sample size was smaller. Nevertheless, we need to realize this ace is something special.

At 2.61 (rounded up from 2.608 according to Baseball-Reference), deGrom has the 57th lowest ERA in the history of baseball. He’s better than Cy Young at 2.627!

Sustainability is what will help deGrom become one of the all-time greats at preventing runs. His latter seasons may do a little damage to this number. At least in 2021, I believe he can limbo and go even lower.

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What are your 2021 deGrom predictions?

Three predictions for what we will see from New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom in 2021.

A Cy Young runner-up

A lot more wins than we are used to seeing

The career ERA gets even lower

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