NY Mets starting pitcher trade options if they miss on Trevor Bauer

If they are unable to sign Trevor Bauer, these starters might help the New York Mets win a lot of games this upcoming season.

The New York Mets went into the 2020 offseason with three major holes to fill. Catcher, center field, and starting pitching. They filled the catcher hole by signing James McCann to a four-year $40 million-dollar contract. It looks like they are very interested in George Springer filling the center field hole. But the biggest hole in my opinion that this team has right now, has not been filled. We also have no idea how it will be filled. And that’s the starting rotation.

What we do know, is the starting rotation will be headlined by two-time Cy Young Award winner, Jacob deGrom. We also know that Marcus Stroman will be back. The rest of the rotation is unknown. David Peterson will likely have a spot after his solid rookie campaign. But the fourth and fifth starters right now if the roster stays as is would be Steven Matz and Corey Oswalt. That’s not going to cut it.

We also know that Noah Syndergaard will be back at some point. Right now, the Mets think he will be back in June. But recovering from Tommy John Surgery is always tricky and we never really know the timetable. Furthermore, when he does return, he will likely be on an innings limit and a pitch count in his starts. So while it would be nice to have Syndergaard back and healthy pitching to his full potential, the likelihood of that happening this season is minimal.

The Mets have some options in free agency, but the market is pretty scarce when it comes to starting pitching. There’s the front-line starter, Trevor Bauer. But is he really worth the contract he is going to get? Probably not. Then there are the mid-rotation arms like Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi. I can see the Mets signing Jake Odorizzi, I don’t really want any part of Tanaka personally.

And then there’s the risk category with Corey Kluber and James Paxton. These guys have been great in the past, but injuries have raised major red flags about their ability to contribute in 2021. I would have no problem going after one of these guys but only if the Mets can get a safer option as well. Preferably Trevor Bauer.

With free agency not having many quality options, the Mets can look to upgrade their pitching through trades. With the farm system as weak as it is, this wouldn’t be my first choice. I think the best thing the Mets can do right now is sign Trevor Bauer, even if he is overpaid. I don’t see Bauer being a Cy Young winner again, but I do see him being a quality second starter in a rotation. The best part about Bauer is that he does not cost any assets other than money.

With that being said, there are still some quality arms that the Mets can trade for this offseason. If the price is right, I would say they should pull the trigger.

Matthew Boyd

This one is a risk. I have been a believer in Matthew Boyd’s potential. His stuff is very good. Boyd struck out 238 batters in 185.1 innings pitched in 2019, an 11.6 K/9. This season, he struck out 60 batters in 60.1 innings pitched, a 9.0 K/9. While those numbers are good, his other numbers are not. Even with that being said, teams are still interested in Boyd because they see the potential he has with those huge strikeout numbers.

In 2019, Boyd went 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA. While not great by any means, that’s a pretty respectable fifth starter nowadays. The Mets had three starters this season with a higher ERA than that. This season, Boyd took a step down from that. He went 3-7 with a 6.71 ERA in 12 starts. A big reason for his high ERA is the number of home runs he allows. He has led the league in each of the last two seasons as he allowed 39 in 2019 and 15 in 2020.

Boyd made most of his starts at Comerica Park, a park known to be a good one for pitchers. This makes me nervous. Boyd’s strikeout rate went down significantly from 2019 from 30.2% to 22.1%. Boyd also walked way more hitters in 2020. His BB/9 went up from 2.4/9 to 3.3/9.

While the numbers look ugly, a change of scenery might do wonders for Boyd who is on one of the worst teams in baseball. Boyd is making $6.75 million dollars this upcoming season and is under team control through the 2023 season. If he pitches to his potential as a mid-rotation arm who strikes out a ton of hitters and eats innings, that’s a bargain. But, there’s always the chance that this is just who he is as a pitcher, which would not be a good get for the Mets.

What I would say is get him if they can get a bargain. If the Tigers have given up on him and want to just get what they can for him at this point, by all means, go for it. But I would not give up anything of significant value for a starter who hasn’t quite proven himself yet, even with the potential and the team control.

Luis Castillo

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that Luis Castillo is available in a trade this offseason. With that being said, I don’t think it’s particularly likely that Castillo is dealt as he is a young frontline starter with team control. But, the Mets should definitely look and see if they can make a deal work.

In the last two seasons, Castillo has gone 19-14 with a 3.35 ERA in 260.2 innings of work. He was an all-star in 2019 and was pitching at the same pace in this shortened 2020 season. The 28-year-old will be a free agent after the 2023 season.

I believe Castillo has ace stuff. He struck out 226 batters in his 190.2 innings pitched in 2019, a 10.7 K/9. This season, that number went even higher as he struck out 89 batters in 70 innings pitched, an 11.4 K/9. In Jacob deGrom’s Cy Young years, he struck out 11.2 and 11.3 batters per nine, so it’s safe to say Castillo has the stuff to be an ace.

While the 3.35 ERA may not jump off the page as an elite starter, that is a very respectable number. Also, the ballpark he plays in needs to be considered. Great American Ballpark is known as one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. Castillo allowed just 1.0 HR/9 in 2019 and 0.6 HR/9 in 2020, outstanding numbers especially when looking at the ballpark he pitches in.

Castillo is armed with a fastball which averaged 97.8 mph, a very good slider, and his best pitch is his changeup which is one of the better ones in the game. The big weakness Castillo has is his walk rate. He walked 3.7/9 in 2019, and 3.1/9 in 2020. That’s too many walks. Everything else from Castillo is outstanding, and he would be a great number two starter behind Jacob deGrom. Out of everyone on this list, Castillo is the one I would want the most.

Marco Gonzales

Marco Gonzales is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. In 2019, Gonzales went 16-13 with a 3.99 ERA in 203 innings pitched. In 2020, he took a step forward as he went 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA in 11 starts. He identifies as a reliable middle of the rotation arm who can eat innings and give your team a chance to win. The Mets need guys like that. Gonzales went at least five innings in all but one of his starts this season and allowed more than four runs only once. That kind of consistency is needed in the back end of a rotation.

While his stuff isn’t flashy, he gets the job done. Gonzales struck out 64 batters in 69.2 innings pitched, an 8.3 K/9. That’s pretty average. But, Gonzalez had a 9.14 K/BB ratio, which led the league. This is due to him walking a league-leading 0.9 batters per nine innings. In addition to the low walks, Gonzales allowed just 1.0 HR/9, a very good number especially nowadays.

Gonzales is a reliable option who you know won’t beat himself. He won’t put guys on base via the walk and won’t give up so many home runs. He might give up some hits as he does pitch to contact, but if the Mets can field a good defensive team like this new regime says they will try to do, Gonzales can be a sneaky good pickup.

Gonzales is 28 years old and is on an extremely team-friendly deal. Last February Gonzales signed a four-year $30 million-dollar extension with the Mariners. In the next two seasons, he will make only $5 million dollars a season. For someone who just pitched as well as he did, and for someone with his track record, that is an absolute steal. In addition to the four guaranteed years, there is a team option for a fifth worth $15 million dollars.

A guy like Gonzales who you know will eat innings and will consistently keep you in games is extremely valuable to have. The fact that Seattle isn’t contending for a couple more years at least might make them try to shop him to acquire more future assets. I obviously don’t want to give up too much, but at the right price, I would jump at any opportunity to land a quality arm like this.

Sonny Gray

The second member of the Cincinnati Reds I have my eye on is Sonny Gray. There have actually been rumors of Sonny Gray being on the trade block and the Mets having interest. To save money, the Reds might be trying to blow things up. If that does happen, Sonny Gray would be an amazing get for the Mets in my opinion.

When I first saw these rumors, I immediately thought about his time with the Yankees. Gray struggled mightily in the Bronx. In his only full season there in 2018, Gray went 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA in 23 starts (30 appearances) and was left off of the postseason roster. This led people to come up with a narrative that Gray just couldn’t handle New York. I just don’t believe that to be the case.

After being traded to the Reds in that offseason, Gray blamed his struggles on the Yankees forcing him to throw way more sliders than he wanted to. Gray says the slider is a pitch he likes to use in a two-strike situation to throw in the dirt. The Yankees wanted him to use it more and try to throw it for strikes.

Since he arrived in Cincinnati, Gray threw his slider more than he ever did with the Yankees in 2019 and threw it a lot in 2020 as well. He threw it 21.6% of the time in 2019, and 15.3% in 2020. The difference is the situation he is throwing them in. Gray has said he has a hard time throwing his slider for a good strike.

This means one that isn’t flat that the hitter can crush for a home run or one that just misses the strike zone entirely. He likes to throw it in a two-strike count to try and put a hitter away. The Yankees had him throwing it more in hitters counts which caused some issues for him.
The results of his new approach have been outstanding. His strikeout rate in 2018 with the Yankees was at 21.1%. In his two seasons in Cincinnati, his strikeout rates jumped up to 29.0% and 30.6%.

If Gray can continue to throw his pitches the way he thinks he can be successful, I don’t see it being an issue pitching in New York. He has pitched in games with pressure and has done very well. In his two playoff games with the Athletics, he allowed just three runs in 13 innings pitched, including eight scoreless innings in his postseason debut.

I believe Gray is closer to the pitcher he was in Cincinnati and Oakland which saw him make two all-star games and finish in the top three in Cy Young voting one year. In his last full season in 2019, Gray went 11-8 with a 2.87 ERA, striking out 205 hitters in 175.1 innings pitched. Those are ace quality numbers, and he was on track to do even better this season before getting injured.

The 31-year-old has two years and a team option left on his contract. The two years are worth $10 million dollars a season, and the team option year is worth $12 million dollars. This is a bargain and if the Mets can find the right trade to land him, I do that in a heartbeat.