NY Mets starting pitcher trade options if they miss on Trevor Bauer
This one is a risk. I have been a believer in Matthew Boyd’s potential. His stuff is very good. Boyd struck out 238 batters in 185.1 innings pitched in 2019, an 11.6 K/9. This season, he struck out 60 batters in 60.1 innings pitched, a 9.0 K/9. While those numbers are good, his other numbers are not. Even with that being said, teams are still interested in Boyd because they see the potential he has with those huge strikeout numbers.
In 2019, Boyd went 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA. While not great by any means, that’s a pretty respectable fifth starter nowadays. The Mets had three starters this season with a higher ERA than that. This season, Boyd took a step down from that. He went 3-7 with a 6.71 ERA in 12 starts. A big reason for his high ERA is the number of home runs he allows. He has led the league in each of the last two seasons as he allowed 39 in 2019 and 15 in 2020.
Boyd made most of his starts at Comerica Park, a park known to be a good one for pitchers. This makes me nervous. Boyd’s strikeout rate went down significantly from 2019 from 30.2% to 22.1%. Boyd also walked way more hitters in 2020. His BB/9 went up from 2.4/9 to 3.3/9.
While the numbers look ugly, a change of scenery might do wonders for Boyd who is on one of the worst teams in baseball. Boyd is making $6.75 million dollars this upcoming season and is under team control through the 2023 season. If he pitches to his potential as a mid-rotation arm who strikes out a ton of hitters and eats innings, that’s a bargain. But, there’s always the chance that this is just who he is as a pitcher, which would not be a good get for the Mets.
What I would say is get him if they can get a bargain. If the Tigers have given up on him and want to just get what they can for him at this point, by all means, go for it. But I would not give up anything of significant value for a starter who hasn’t quite proven himself yet, even with the potential and the team control.