NY Mets: Building the perfect yet realistic starting rotation for 2021

Jacob deGrom

You all knew he would be here. The best pitcher in baseball will be back and will be looking to claim his Cy Young Award trophy back after finishing in third place in the voting this season. deGrom came out on Opening Day hitting 100 consistently. We saw that all year. We even saw him hit 102.2 miles per hour on his fastball. He averaged 98.6 mph on his fastball. deGrom is just getting better and at age 32 I expect nothing less.

deGrom went 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 12 starts striking out a league-leading 104 batters in 68 innings pitched. He had an absurd 13.8 K/9 shattering his career-high of 11.3 in 2019. At times, deGrom appeared even more dominant than he was in his two Cy Young seasons. It’s truly a blessing to have this guy on my favorite team and to have him locked up for another three seasons at least.

It’s crazy to say that my expectations are Cy Young or bust from deGrom, but those are my expectations. Every fifth day I expect him to pitch seven innings of one-run baseball. Most of the time he meets or exceeds my lofty expectations. Hopefully in 2021 deGrom will finally get the run support he deserves.

deGrom never allowed more than three earned runs, and the one time he allowed four runs three of them were unearned. He had two 14 strikeout games, allowed one earned run or fewer in half of his starts, I truly can go on and on about his greatness. Let’s get that third Cy Young Award, Jacob.

Trevor Bauer

I hope the Mets sign the NL Cy Young Award winner. He would slot in nicely behind deGrom and ahead of Marcus Stroman. While I think he will get very overpaid, I think that’s just what free agency is. The good players often get overpaid.

The Mets have a clear need for pitching. Money should not be an obstacle anymore. If the Mets don’t sign George Springer, they must sign Bauer. If they don’t it makes no sense that they would pass up on J.T. Realmuto for James McCann. Especially with the Robinson Cano money being handed to Cohen I expect the Mets to get one, but hopefully two big names.

While I do think this season might have been an anomaly, I’ve always thought Bauer has had great stuff. This season he had the fortune of pitching against the central division teams all year. We saw how they did in the playoffs – not great. But, I wouldn’t expect him to be an ace.

I think Bauer can be a very viable second or third starter in a rotation who can give you a quality start most of the time.

Even with the overpay Bauer will get, he is worth it to me for a couple of reasons. One, the depth in free agency for pitching is very poor. Guys like Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker just don’t do it for me. Tanaka is 32, coming off a down year and pitching with a partially torn UCL, Paxton has never made more than 29 starts in a season, and Walker just doesn’t have the track record of success.

While Bauer had a disappointing 2019, in 2018 he went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA, striking out 11.3 batters in 175.1 innings pitched. He is an above-average pitcher that would add a lot of value to a subpar rotation.

Unfortunately, after his Cy Young year, I doubt Bauer will be looking for a one-year deal. If the Mets can get him on a four or five-year deal I will be satisfied. Anything more seems like too much for me. But I do hope they can land him.

Marcus Stroman

Marcus Stroman decided to opt-out of the 2020 season after he got enough service time to become a free agent which angered many Mets fans. Had Stroman pitched for the Mets it is very possible they would’ve been a playoff team. But now, to the delight of many Mets fans including myself, Stroman accepted the qualifying offer worth $18.9 million dollars for one year. Having Stroman back for one year is a big win for this team.

Stroman will be motivated for a big free agent contract next offseason, so theoretically he should pitch very well this season. And if the Mets get Bauer, they will not have to re-sign Stroman to a big deal he is not going to be worth. I believe signing Bauer long term is a better move than signing Stroman long term.

When last seen on a baseball field in 2019, Stroman went 10-13 with a 3.22 ERA pitching for the Blue Jays and the Mets and he made the American League All-Star Team for the first time. I believe in a perfect world Stroman is a low-end second starter, ideally a third starter which is exactly what he would be if they sign Bauer. When Syndergaard is healthy, he’d be the fourth starter which is great value, I believe he is better than that.

The biggest flaws with Stroman in the past have been his health and his lack of consistency. Stroman missed significant time in 2015 and in 2018 with injuries. Stroman has also been up and down with his production. He pitched well in 2015 in his limited action, poorly in 2016, better in 2017, poorly in 2018, and then well again in 2019. Hopefully, this trend does not continue for this season.

Stroman is known to be a groundball pitcher, which in the past would not be a good fit with the Mets. However, with the new regime in place, they have emphasized making this team better defensively. And, if the Mets can land someone like Nolan Arenado or Francisco Lindor, he would have an elite glove in the infield. Right now, the Mets have Jeff McNeil playing his real position and Andres Gimenez who is a very good defender in their infield. The corners are a little weaker with Pete Alonso at first and J.D. Davis at third but that’s not the end of the world.

Stroman in his career is 51-47 with a 3.76 ERA. If he can produce numbers close to these or hopefully slightly better as the Mets’ third starter, I believe they would be very satisfied with that result.

What Stroman brings that a lot of this team does not is playoff experience. Stroman has starter two winner take all games and won them both, pitching six innings of two-run ball in Game Five of the ALDS in 2015, and six innings of two-run ball in the Wild Card Game in 2016. Stroman pitches with a lot of heart and seems like a great locker room guy. I am very happy he is back and expect him to pitch well in 2021.

Jake Odorizzi

After an All-Star season in 2019 which saw Jake Odorizzi go 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings, Odorizzi decided to accept the qualifying offer from the Twins instead of pursuing a multi-year deal. This gamble failed as Odorizzi made just four starts in 2020 as he dealt with an intercostal strain, a blister, and a chest contusion after being hit in the chest by a line drive.

Even with that multitude of injuries, I am not concerned about his ability to stay healthy. Odorizzi made 28 starts every year since 2014 except for this past season. In his career Odorizzi has gone 62-56 with a 3.92 ERA, striking out 8.6 batters per nine. Odorizzi spent two of his three seasons in Minnesota with new Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Hefner was the assistant pitching coach in Minnesota. Odorizzi, like new Mets signee Trevor May, might want to reunite with Hefner after he helped Odorizzi produce his best season in 2019.

I believe Odorizzi is the second-best starter on the market behind Bauer. He is durable, was an all-star in his last full season, and has been more consistent than any of the other available starters in terms of health and productivity combined.

The hope would be for the Mets to somehow get the 30-year-old on a one-year deal but since he is the second-best starter available I don’t see that happening. MLB Trade Rumors is predicting that Odorizzi will land a three-year $39 million-dollar contract. I believe the years are a bit steep but if they can overpay a bit for two years that would be a great get. Sandy Alderson and new General Manager Jared Porter have been emphasizing adding pitching depth and Odorizzi would be great value for a fourth starter.

David Peterson

David Peterson surprised many including myself with his performance in 2020. He was clearly the Mets second-best starter, which is pretty good for someone who didn’t even make the Opening Day roster. He also never pitched above AA. He went 6-2 with a 3.44 ERA, with a 7.2 K/9 in 49.2 innings pitched. Peterson allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his starts and pitched at least five innings in all but three of his appearances.

I believe his season might’ve been a bit lucky as he posted a 4.52 FIP and walked 4.3 batters per nine innings pitched. He allowed a lot of base runners but got out of jams. He showed great poise and getting out of jams is a great trait to have. I just hope he can replicate that ability next season and in the future.

Even if he takes a step down, in this rotation he would be the fifth starter. I believe that if Peterson can have an ERA of around 4.00 the Mets would take that. The bullpen should be improved, and the lineup has more than enough firepower to score enough runs to win the games he starts.

I think it is a good thing to have a left-hander in the rotation, and it is also a good thing to have a younger pitcher who can learn from guys like deGrom and Bauer. Peterson is 25 years old and will be pitching in his first full season in the MLB. I think if he can tone down the walks a bit and continue to increase his velocity, Peterson can become a really good pitcher in this league. I am excited to see how he does in a full season.

Noah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard can be a crucial key to the Mets’ success in 2021. Syndergaard is expected back in June after tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John Surgery in March. If he comes back and pitches as he did in 2015-2018, this Mets team could be serious contenders. If he is healthy and pitches like we all know he is capable of, he would slot in behind Jacob deGrom as the number two starter and would be in front of Bauer and Stroman to create a lethal 1-4 in the rotation.

The problem with that is we really don’t know what to expect with Syndergaard. Health has been an issue in the past and coming off of a major injury who knows if he will be able to stay healthy. We don’t even know if he will actually be able to return in June, hopefully, he will.

When last seen on a baseball field, Syndergaard was wrapping up his worst season in the majors going 10-8 with a 4.28 ERA, striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. The reason he struggled so much was the number of hits he gave up. Syndergaard allowed 194 hits in 197.2 innings pitched a very high number. Syndergaard did well in just about every other category. He walked only 2.3/9, allowed just 1.1 HR/9 and that is shown in his FIP which was 3.60.

I believe that a percentage of the hits he allowed might have been due to the poor defense the Mets put on the field most nights. The balls the opposition put in play found holes, they didn’t leave the ballpark. My hope is the Mets upgrade their team defense which should help pitchers like Syndergaard and Stroman who allow a fair amount of contact.

Even with 2019 being his worst season, Syndergaard still did things well. He pitched deep into virtually every game. He had a stretch in which he pitched at least seven innings six straight times. Syndergaard also started off and ended slowly, in the middle of the season he was pitching very well.

I don’t believe the Mets need Syndergaard to be the all-star he was in 2016 for them to win games. If he can give the Mets quality starts they should be in good shape. Hopefully, he regains his all-star form, but coming off of a major injury like this with his injury history I would be surprised. I really just hope he can last the season once he finally comes back.

Seth Lugo

If for some reason this roster ends up being the roster the Mets field on Opening Day, Seth Lugo has to be in the rotation. Right now, if Seth Lugo was in the bullpen, the Mets rotation would be Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson, Steven Matz, and Corey Oswalt. Having Corey Oswalt as your fifth starter if you expect to contend just is not a good idea.

In a perfect world, Lugo would be in the bullpen setting up for Edwin Diaz. That’s where Lugo is most effective, and where the Mets are at their best. However, there is still a chance, albeit a small one, that Lugo ends up in the rotation.

I was one of the people screaming for Lugo to enter the rotation last season after seeing how pathetic it was. Lugo had an up and down experience as a starter in 2020. The numbers don’t look pretty as he went 2-2 with a 6.15 ERA in seven starts in that role, but those base stats don’t tell the whole story. Lugo made two starts which saw him knocked out before finishing his second inning after allowing six runs. He also made two starts of at least five innings and allowing only one run.

As a reliever, Lugo allowed three runs in 10.1 innings pitched, a 2.61 ERA. I think the Mets know he is at his best when he comes out of the ‘pen, they just need to have the right pieces in the rotation to ensure he can go back to setting up or finishing games. The only way Lugo should be a starter in my eyes is if Steven Matz and Corey Oswalt would be in the rotation instead of him. This means the Mets would have to sign two starters, which I fully expect to happen. Hopefully, those two are Odorizzi and Bauer.

Steven Matz

I honestly don’t know what to expect from Steven Matz in 2021. He was the pitcher I was most excited to see in 2020 (after Jacob deGrom of course) after his very solid second half in 2019. Due to the Stroman and Syndergaard injuries, Matz was elevated to the number two starter and was a disaster.

In the second half of 2019, Matz made 14 starts and had a 3.52 ERA in 79.1 innings pitched. Those are very solid numbers for Matz. The most encouraging thing for me was that he made 30 starts for the second year in a row. Matz like Syndergaard has struggled with injuries so it was encouraging to see him last a full season for two straight years. But then 2020 hit.

Matz finished the 2020 season going 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA in nine appearances, six of which were starts. In 30.2 innings pitched Matz somehow allowed 52 baserunners and 14 home runs. How he allowed 14 home runs in 30.2 innings pitched I cannot tell you. The strangest thing to me is he struck out 10.6/9 signaling that his stuff wasn’t that bad. But the 12.3 hits per nine and the 9.68 ERA tell me a whole other story.

The Mets tendered Matz a contract for one year worth $5.2 million dollars. I think that was the right move for the Mets to make as they have no rotation depth whatsoever. To me, this is his last chance to prove himself. And I don’t think he should get the chance to be in the rotation. If the Mets sign Odorizzi and Bauer he certainly will not. If they don’t sign two guys, he likely will be the fifth starter.

I think Matz needs to pitch in games with low leverage to try and gain his confidence back. Matz has a history of getting a little flustered when he struggles, so hopefully, that can improve. As it stands right now, Daniel Zamora is the only left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster. I don’t expect Zamora to make the Opening Day roster, I certainly hope he doesn’t but Matz might be a guy they rely upon to get a left-handed hitter out. Matz is really here as a depth option hopefully, and in a perfect world would not make one start for the Mets in 2021.

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What does your perfect yet realistic rotation look like in 2021?