Mets Rumors: Examining the chances of acquiring a star this winter
With the abundance of New York Mets rumors circulating around baseball, let’s take a dive into the percentages of the front office acquiring one of the star players avaliable this winter.
Early on in the offseason, the New York Mets rumors have been a trending topic around baseball as the organization has been connected to about every big-name free agent and superstar player on the trading block so far. Specifically, we’ve seen reports connect the Mets to outfielder George Springer, starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, shortstop Francisco Lindor, and third baseman Nolan Arenado, among others.
The Mets arguably have been the most active team thus far in free agency by signing reliever Trevor May and catcher James McCann which were two highly regarded free agents in their own right. Yet, the organization still has plenty of work to do in reconstructing the 2021 roster before Spring Training, but with Jared Porter recently taking over the reins of General Manager it seems more moves could be on the horizon shortly.
As we move a bit deeper into the winter months, I expect the market to become a bit more active with some of the more significant names on the free-agent market finding homes as well as some of the superstars that are on the trading block being moved. Until then the Mets rumors will continue to be the center of attention around the entire industry as we await one of the larger dominoes to fall first this offseason.
I wanted to touch on all of the significant names that have been connected to the Mets up to this point in the offseason and provide what I believe the percentage is that they will be in a Mets uniform on Opening Day in 2021.
Outfielder George Springer
The player I believe with the highest odds on this entire list of ending up in a Mets uniform on Opening Day is free-agent outfielder George Springer. Recent reports have suggested that it is a two-way race between the Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays for the services of Springer and I believe it’s ultimately going to come down to money.
General Manager Jared Porter has publicly mentioned Springer as a player that the organization is interested in and the majority of the Mets rumors to this point in the offseason have pointed to the Mets as the heavy favorites to sign the 31-year old outfielder. Therefore I’m giving Springer the highest percentage on this list of being on the Mets Opening Day roster, which is 75%.
The Mets are going to face some stiff competition from the Blue Jays as they are also expected to be one of the most active teams in terms of spending money this offseason, but I can not envision a scenario where the front office lets their number one target slip away. You can almost compare this situation to the Mets’ recent signing of James McCann, as they viewed McCann as a priority early on and the front office made an aggressive push to sign him despite the Los Angeles Angels making a late push as well.
With Springer, the Mets will be receiving a game-changing center fielder that will improve their overall defense, while also providing Luis Rojas the flexibility to move Brandon Nimmo to a corner outfield position where his defense profiles better. Once again I would be stunned if out of all of the players on this list, George Springer is playing elsewhere other than in Queens next year.
The percentage George Springer signs with New York Mets: 75%
Starting Pitcher Trevor Bauer
Another high profile free agent that has been the subject of Mets rumors since the end of the regular season is none other than recent Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer. We’ve heard chatter about Team President Sandy Alderson’s preferred interest in Bauer as well as seen a bit of a public flirtation between both Alderson and Bauer in the past which makes this fit more realistic than it may have been months ago.
It’s also fair to say out of all of the players included on this list the Mets are going to face the stiffest competition for Bauer, as multiple teams have been known to be interested in the 29-year old’s services as a front-line starting pitcher. Bauer has also been openly flirting with the possibility of pitching for just about every team in Major League Baseball on social media this offseason, which makes it nearly impossible to this point to determine which direction he is currently leaning.
With all of that being said, the organization will have the funds to pay Bauer which is something that many teams he has mentioned joining on social media may not be able to compete with. Ultimately Bauer is a complete wild card up to this point and it seems that the front office may not have a serious offer in Bauer’s possession until the George Springer situation resolves itself.
I give the Mets at this point a 50% chance of signing Bauer this winter, as there are so many other factors surrounding this situation that make it a bit complicated to understand how this may play out. If Springer doesn’t sign with the Mets, I believe Bauer would be the Mets’ top priority to get under contract. But if Springer does indeed sign with the Mets as expected, I still believe the organization will make a competitive market offer for Bauer to join the Mets starting rotation next season.
The percentage Trevor Bauer signs with New York Mets: 50%
Shortstop Francisco Lindor
Arguably the biggest name on the trade block this winter that has had Mets rumors surrounding him is Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor. The superstar shortstop is entering the final year of his contract and with the Indians front office expected to move on from Lindor, the Mets have long been thought of as the perfect fit in terms of potential fit.
Both Sandy Alderson and Jared Porter have been adamant in the press about not wanting to trade away prospects for players this offseason. However, with two viable shortstops currently on the Major League roster in Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez, the Mets contain a valuable trade asset that many other teams can’t currently offer the Indians front office. One of those two players would assuredly go back to Cleveland to be their everyday shortstop.
One of the major hang-ups about this trade is the Mets front office would have to be confident in the prospects of re-signing Lindor upon the conclusion of the 2021 season. The team will have the funds to do so, it’s just a matter of Lindor wanting to be a Met for potentially the rest of his career.
Another factor regarding any deal includes Cleveland’s front office’s asking price. I don’t believe the Indians can get a king’s ransom of a haul for Lindor in a volatile market this offseason, as well with there being no assurance if the season will start on time yet playing a factor. The front office in Cleveland also can’t afford to let Lindor walk in free agency with no value coming back in return, and the Mets could have an opportunity to make a reasonable deal without giving up some of their top assets in the minors.
I expect the Mets to be involved in the Lindor bidding along with the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees (if they do not re-sign DJ Lemahieu) this winter. As of right now, I give the team a 40% chance of landing Lindor this offseason which is pretty high to this point with all things considered. Expect the Francisco Lindor to the Mets rumors to continue throughout the offseason.
The percentage that Francisco Lindor is a New York Met on Opening Day: 40%
Third Baseman Nolan Arenado
New York Mets rumors and superstar players continue to go hand in hand as you see by the latest report that the Colorado Rockies want to engage the Mets front office in trade discussions for their uber-talented third baseman Nolan Arenado. While there has been no confirmation as of yet in the Mets’ interest, Arenado makes sense for the Mets who could be looking to upgrade the hot corner this offseason.
While the Mets currently have J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil as potential starters at third base next season, both players have had their fair share of defensive shortcomings at third base. If the Mets do become serious about upgrading the third base position, you have to imagine Jared Porter is going to pick up the phone and make a call to Colorado’s front office about a potential deal.
The 29-year old Arenado currently still has six years and $199 million remaining on his current contract which would fully entrench him as the Mets third baseman for both the present and the future. A complicating matter however is that Arenado can opt-out of his current contract after the 2021 season, but with the unknown financial landscape of baseball in 2022, he may stay under contract if he believes he won’t command the same amount of money next offseason.
There is also the concerning home and road splits that accompany Arenado. At Coors Field, Arenado has a line of .322/.376/.609 and on the road, Arenado has a line of .263/.322/.471, which is a significant difference when making an almost $200 million investment.
Ultimately I expect the Mets to listen to all offers presented their way and if they believe Arenado is a fit for the current ball club they will pull the trigger regardless of financial implications as previously stated by Sandy Alderson.My opinion of these Mets rumors connected to Arenado is I believe Lindor may be a stronger possibility for the organization at this point in the offseason, but give the Mets a 30% chance of landing Arenado this offseason.
The percentage that Nolan Arenado is a New York Met on Opening Day: 30%
Reliever Liam Hendriks
There has been a Mets rumor floating around over the last week or so that the front office has an interest in free-agent relief pitcher Liam Hendriks. Hendriks who is heavily considered the best free-agent reliever available on the open market is somebody Team President Sandy Alderson is familiar with Hendriks from his recent time spent in the Oakland Athletics organization.
It seems that Hendriks is being painted currently as more of a fallback option depending on what happens with free agents George Springer and Trevor Bauer. Last season Hendriks produced 14 saves, a 1.78 ERA, and a 0.67 WHIP while whiffing 37 batters in 25.1 innings pitched for the Athletics last season.
Should the Mets sign Hendriks, you would automatically assume that he becomes the favorite for eighth-inning duties, and he could give currently projected closer Edwin Diaz a run for his money should he struggle at any point in 2021. But as previously stated it seems Hendriks may not be a priority right now for the front office, but they have simply done their due diligence on the current free agent in case other dominoes don’t fall their way.
With all of that being said, I give the Mets a 25% chance of signing Hendriks this offseason. I believe there will be continued interest shown by the front office as Hendriks would markedly upgrade the current bullpen in place, but until there is a resolution with both George Springer and Trevor Bauer, I believe Hendriks will remain on the backburner for now. However, don’t bank on the Mets rumors surrounding the former A’s closer to go away anytime soon.
The percentage Liam Hendriks signs with New York Mets: 25%
Starting Pitcher Jake Odorizzi
One of the Mets’ rumors that have been burning bright since the onset of the offseason has been their interest in free-agent starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi who has experience working with Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner back in Minnesota has constantly been attached to the Mets as a potential starting rotation option. It also should come as no surprise that Jeremy Hefner may be recruiting Odorizzi to the big apple, as Odorizzi had his best season under Hefner’s guidance in 2019, similar to our new addition Trevor May.
Similar to Liam Hendriks it may seem that Odorizzi could be seen as a fallback option for the front office should the Mets not land Trevor Bauer this winter. It’s also notable that the San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, and the Minnesota Twins each have shown varying degrees of interest in signing the right-handed pitcher this offseason.
I don’t envision Odorizzi signing before Bauer, as Bauer will set the market for starting pitching this offseason and may have a more robust market based on where the latter signs. However, Odorizzi’s market is one of the most prominent Mets rumors to continue to follow as the front office is expected to come away with one of the top starting pitchers in free agency.
Currently, I would give the Mets a 50% chance to sign the 30-year old starting pitcher similar to the odds I gave the Mets to sign Trevor Bauer. I believe the front office is going to come away with one of those two starting pitchers that the Mets rumors are surrounding this winter.
The percentage Jake Odorizzi signs with New York Mets: 50%
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Which of these Mets rumors do you expect to get fulfilled over the winter?