Mets Shortstop Trade Chips: Amed Rosario vs. Andres Gimenez
The New York Mets have a pair of shortstops capable of playing the bulk of the games at the position. Is Amed Rosario or Andres Gimenez potentially expendable in a trade?
The beginning of the Steve Cohen era has fans of the New York Mets feeling as optimistic as ever about the upcoming season. As the franchise does its best to lure free agents to what promises to be a pivotal 2021 season, the Mets have a number of interesting decisions to make. One of their biggest potential dilemmas will be how the team elects to handle their battle at shortstop.
Incumbent starter Amed Rosario, once considered to be among the elite prospects in MLB, has been the starter at the position over the past two seasons. At just 25 years old, he is still developing what could be a dynamic skillset. However, the emergence of rookie Andres Gimenez during the shortened 2020 season has Mets fans clamoring for a changing of the guard.
This leaves the franchise in a bit of an awkward position. Do they stick with their longtime project in Rosario or begin to pivot toward an electric rookie in Gimenez? This becomes an even more captivating question when one considers the fact that the team does have other positions of need. Should the Mets elect to place either of these two options on the trade block, either would assuredly land them a major-league-ready talent that could help fill out a more complete roster.
While there is a potential path for both players to split time in a platoon, for the sake of argument, let’s say the Mets decided their best course of action would be to shop one of their young shortstops via trade. Which player would be more expendable? Let’s take a look:
Amed Rosario
Rosario has developed into one of the interesting case studies in baseball. His combination of youth, speed, and potential would make him a major trade piece on the open market. What team wouldn’t be interested in adding a 25-year-old player who is MLB ready and plays one of the most pivotal positions in the sport?
There’s a lot to like about Rosario’s profile. Over the course of his four-year major league career, he as posted a .268 batting average, and 162 game averages of 13 home runs, 59 RBI, and 20 stolen bases per season. He also already has 403 MLB games and 1,478 at-bats under his belt.
There are increasingly few players capable of posting this type of production in both power and speed. Combine this early success with the fact that Rosario was once the #2 overall rated prospect and there is clear reason to believe that he could make another leap into the rank of elite shortstops.
This begs the question: Why would the Mets even consider moving a player with this potential? And why was he losing playing time to a rookie? There are a few reasons why Rosario could be moved.
He has yet to capitalize on his full potential in four MLB seasons. He shows the skills of a plus defensive player. Yet, he as flashed a concerningly inconsistent glove. He is also considered to be one of the fastest players in baseball. Yet, his career-high in stolen bases is 19. To make matters worse, he did not record a single steal in 46 games last season.
This has raised serious questions about whether there is a cap to his ceiling in New York City. He, like many other players before him, may benefit from a change in scenery. This conversation becomes more interesting when one considers…
Andres Gimenez
Gimenez was one of the brightest spots in a 2020 season marked by disappointment and under-achievement. The rookie burst onto the scene to the tune of a .263 average, three homers, 12 RBI, and eight steals. While these seem like much less impressive numbers compared to his counterpart, it is worth noting that the 22-year-old accomplished these feats in just 49 games and 118 at-bats. Despite being capped by a few nagging injuries and little playing time, Gimenez was able to finish seventh in NL Rookie of the Year voting.
Additionally, the young shortstop also displayed far superior defensive ability. Some top analysts have gone so far as to tout the rookie as an “elite defender.” In all his time playing the most difficult defensive positions, Gimenez had only two errors. One of these came when he was out of position at third base. In fact, his outs above average (OAA) advanced metric showed the Mets budding star as the third-best defensive shortstop in baseball, behind only Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr.
If this latter baseline is an indication of future success, Gimenez could have a real path toward a future Gold Glove award. His defense is lightyears ahead of Rosario.
Additionally, Gimenez’s speed translated to on-field success in a way that Rosario’s has not. His eight steals in such limited action are impressive. Stretched over the course of a 162 game season, he could be a serious threat for 30+ stolen bases. The rookie felt like an electric threat every time he safely reached first base. The Mets, who have lacked a legitimate threat on the basepaths in recent seasons, could benefit greatly from this skill set.
Conclusion
The Mets management staff and front office are in the unenviable position of having to choose between two intriguing options. While last season would seem to indicate that Gimenez has the highest upside moving forward, there is one other critical piece of information to consider: The entire sample size was based on one of the strangest seasons in baseball history.
Gimenez, while impressive, has yet to prove that he is capable of enduring through an entire 162 game schedule. Rosario’s perceived dip in production could also be attributed to an interrupted spring/summer training time, unique practice and clubhouse conditions, or the looming pandemic. The Astros’ infamous sign-stealing scandal also ended the use of in-game tape in 2020. This led to subpar seasons from superstars like JD Martinez and Christian Yelich. Perhaps Rosario also felt the effect.
At the end of the day, the Mets would be most wise to retain both players entering the season, with Gimenez as the starter and Rosario as a key infield utility man. However, if the younger option does provide staying power over the first half of the season, I would then pivot to shopping Rosario in a deadline deal for a position of need.
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If Gimenez passes the skills level and availability tests over the first few months of the season, it seems clear that Rosario is the more expendable of the two options.