NY Mets: This is the perfect lineup for the 2021 season

After a disappointing 2020 season, the New York Mets head into the offseason with a lot of holes to fill. Starting pitching, catcher, center field, are just a few. Hopefully, Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson can figure out a way to make this potential Opening Day lineup a reality.

The New York Mets enter the 2020 offseason with a lot of hope. The Wilpons are gone, a new era of Mets baseball has begun. The Mets have Steve Cohen as the new owner, a guy who is going to go all out to try and win a championship as soon as possible. I expect Cohen to make a splash or two. The splash I am hoping for the most is Trevor Bauer. Hopefully, the Mets can put out a lineup looking like this on opening day.

Brandon Nimmo – LF

Brandon Nimmo is not a fourth outfielder. The biggest issues he’s had during his tenure as a Met have been injuries and defense. The only time Nimmo has appeared in over 100 games was in 2018, when he played in 140. But to me, the most glaring weakness in his game, is his defense. Nimmo is just not a center fielder. Since being called up back in 2016, Nimmo has posted a -15 DRS in center field. However, in left field, Nimmo has a 5 DRS.

The old regime prioritized offense over defense, so Nimmo was forced to play out of position pretty much every day in 2020. If he can be in a corner outfield spot, I believe the Mets will be a much better team. They need to address center field through free agency or via trade to improve the overall team defense.

Now, let’s get to the reason he should be hitting leadoff. His bat can be elite. His best skill is getting on base. In the two seasons, he has stayed healthy for the most part in, Nimmo has posted an on-base percentage of over .400. That is elite production. Nimmo also has sneaky power. In 2018 he hit 17 home runs in 433 at-bats, a very solid number for a leadoff hitter.

While he most likely won’t be a .300 hitter, he did hit .280 in this shortened season to go along with his .404 OBP. This Mets lineup has so many talented offensive pieces and it is crucial to have someone who can get on base in front of guys like Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, and Dom Smith.

Nimmo’s biggest flaw offensively in 2020 was his production against lefties. The Mets often hit him lower in the order, and towards the end of the year even benched him against southpaws. While this might’ve helped them more in the short term, it doesn’t help Nimmo to sit or get limited action against left-handers. I believe with enough reps he can turn it around against lefties just as Michael Conforto did this past season.

Nimmo should be in the lineup leading off every day in my opinion. He’s still someone who can get on base even if he doesn’t’ hit for a high average against southpaws, as shown by his .196 average but .317 OBP. With some improvement, he can get that OBP to a spot where it’s a good number for a leadoff hitter.

Jeff McNeil – 2B

At times, it seemed like Jeff McNeil was lost at the plate in 2020. When he was battling injuries and when he crashed into the left field wall at Citi Field, he was not hitting as well as we had been so accustomed to seeing. And to be honest, his numbers weren’t as good as his 2019 numbers were. And with that being said, he still was very, very good in 2020.

He slashed .311/.383/.454 with four home runs and 23 RBI in 183 at-bats. The power certainly wasn’t the same as his 2019 season when he hit 23 home runs. However, the Mets don’t really need him to hit for power. They have plenty of guys who can do that like Alonso, Conforto, and Smith to name a few. The Mets are best served with Nimmo and McNeil as table setters for the middle of the order to drive them in.

Even in a down year, McNeil managed to hit over .300. When he was finally feeling healthy in September and had fixed some of his problems in the batter’s box, McNeil slashed .356/.431/.567 in September with all four of his home runs. McNeil has proven that he is an elite offensive player that belongs at the top of the Mets lineup for years to come.

This also might be his chance to play his natural position. With Robinson Cano suspended for the entirety of the 2021 season, McNeil seems like the best fit to take his spot. With McNeil at his natural position, the team defense improves even more.

Pete Alonso – DH

The 2019 National League Rookie of the Year took a step back in 2020, as he slashed .231/.326/.490 with 16 home runs and 35 RBI. These numbers looked worse than they actually were, as he ran into a ton of bad luck with a very low BABIP and a low fly ball to home run ratio. Yet, Alonso managed to hit 16 home runs in the shortened season and was on pace for 43 in a regular season. Would the Mets take a 43-home run campaign from their second-year first baseman? I think so. It might not have been the 53 home run rookie year, but that’s pretty impossible to repeat.

I think the pressure got to Alonso to repeat his performance at the beginning of the season, and once he finally got settled in, he blossomed. The Mets as a team really struggled to get big hits with runners in scoring position, and Alonso was the one who probably struggled the most. Once Alonso got more settled in during the month of September, he slashed .256/.316/.640 with 10 of his 16 home runs. And during the last week of the season, Alonso hit four home runs and hit safely in every game.

Where Alonso will play depends on whether there is a DH or not in the National League. I think even after the breakout campaign Dom Smith had, Alonso will still get the nod over him if there is no DH due to the track record and the superstar potential he’s proven he has. If there is a DH, I expect Dom Smith to play at first base a majority of the time as he did this season, but if there isn’t I expect Alonso to take his spot at first base back.

I think in his third season, under hopefully more normal circumstances, Alonso can thrive. He will be in the middle of a very deep and loaded lineup and should get pitches to hit with McNeil in front of him, and Michael Conforto behind him. Expect another 30+ home runs at least from Alonso with a better batting average and more consistency at the dish.

Michael Conforto – RF

Conforto enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2020 which saw him slash .322/.412/.515 with nine home runs and 32 RBI. What Conforto had brought to the table in the past, was great 30+ home run power, but not as many trips on base. This year, he had his highest batting average ever by 43 points and highest on-base percentage by 28 points.

The season which saw his career highs in those categories was 2017, and he was an all-star that year. With the increase in those stats, the power was still there which was huge. Conforto proved that he can be the star player the Mets always thought he could be, and needs to be extended as soon as possible.

I believe the biggest improvement Conforto made was his production against left-handers. Conforto slashed .284/.384/.486 against southpaws with four of his nine home runs. This is far better than his career slash line of .232/.311/.408 against left-handers. Conforto excelled at using left field and not giving the appearance of going for home runs. I think Conforto was on a mission to get on base as much as possible this season and excelled at doing that. I expect Conforto to build off that and have a monstrous full season.

He slots in perfectly in the cleanup spot in this Mets lineup. He provides a lot of power and should drive in plenty of runs behind a top three of Nimmo, McNeil, and Alonso. He would slot in behind right-handed-hitting Alonso and in front of right-handed-hitting George Springer, to maintain a righty lefty balance. Conforto should be one of the driving forces behind an elite offense in 2021.

Dominic Smith – 1B

After his walk-off home run to end the 2019 season, Dom Smith broke out in a big way in 2020. He slashed .316/.377/.616 with 10 home runs and 42 RBI. Smith was not even a starter until Yoenis Cespedes opted out of the season, so for him to put up this stat line is extremely impressive. Smith appeared on eight ballots as a top 10 finisher for National League MVP, also extremely impressive.

Smith’s status as a starter in 2021 is in question due to the fact that there may not be a DH. I don’t think there is any way Alonso is not an everyday player, at least to start the season. Dom has played some left field, but it is clear that he’s best suited at first base. Also, if they played Dom in left, that would mean the Mets would have to put Nimmo in center which, as we saw this season, is not a good idea.

The Mets are best suited with Smith in the lineup every day. Whether that’s at first base, DH, left field, they just need his bat. So hopefully, there is a DH because if there isn’t, one of Nimmo, Smith, or maybe even Alonso will be relegated to the bench. And of the three, the most likely candidate would be Dom.

If somehow Smith isn’t in the lineup every day, I think the Mets need to seriously consider trading him. It’s not a good thing to waste that kind of value on the bench and if they can get something great back for him, or include him in a trade for a superstar like a Francisco Lindor or Nolan Arenado, the Mets might have to pull the trigger.

But for now, let’s hope that there is a DH in the National League and the Mets don’t have to even consider trading Smith. He is one of their best offensive players and will make a huge impact if he’s in the lineup.

J.D. Davis – 3B

J.D. was one of the major surprises of the 2019 season, as he slashed .307/.369/.527 with 22 home runs and 57 RBI. In 2020, that was a different story. He slashed .247/.371/.389 with six home runs and 19 RBI. From what I saw in the latter half of the year, pitchers were constantly throwing him high fastballs that he just could not catch up to. Hopefully, for next season Davis can make that adjustment and get back to his 2019 form.

Davis is a liability in the field, so in order for him to be in the lineup every day, he has to produce at the plate. I do think Davis can be a solid third baseman, he’s got the arm and it seemed to me that he was more comfortable there than he was in left field. I assume with more reps he will only improve.

Davis also has been a name brought up in many trade discussions. The main name has been Francisco Lindor but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is part of a deal for a starting pitcher or even a better third baseman like Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant. This season is Davis’ year to prove himself as a part of the Mets’ future if he even gets the chance to man third base on opening day.

James McCann – C

The White Sox elected to sign Yasmani Grandal to a four-year $73 million-dollar contract last offseason, despite having James McCann on their roster. Despite only having 97 at-bats in 2020, McCann slashed .289/.360/.536 with seven home runs and 15 RBI. The Mets catcher, Wilson Ramos, slashed .239/.297/.387 in 142 at-bats with five home runs and 15 RBI. In 45 fewer at-bats, McCann hit more home runs and had only six fewer hits than the “offensive-minded catcher” Wilson Ramos.

We all know the prized catcher in free agency is the best catcher in baseball, J.T. Realmuto. While I think it’s worth checking in on him, I prefer the Mets go out and sign Trevor Bauer and McCann, instead of Realmuto and some middle of the pack pitcher like a Corey Kluber. While I do expect Steve Cohen to spend a lot of money, it’s unrealistic to say he will sign every top free agent.

James McCann is more than capable of being a starting catcher in this league. In his most recent year as a starter, 2019, he was an all-star and slashed .273/.328/.460 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI. Prior to that offensive breakout, McCann was known more for his defense behind the plate. Signing McCann would be an upgrade over Ramos in every way possible.

I think if the Mets can get McCann on a two or three-year deal at around 10-12 million dollars a year, I think that’d be a big win. The Mets top prospect, Francisco Alvarez, is a catcher and has an MLB ETA of 2023 according to mlb.com. Signing McCann as a starter until Alvarez is ready would be great.

Also, it’s hard to predict when catchers will break down. Realmuto is great now, but he is also 29 years old. He will get at least five years in free agency, and he most likely won’t be playing at this level when he is 34 years old. McCann will not come with the same expectations or close to the same amount of money as Realmuto and might be a better value signing. He would slot in nicely at the bottom of the order and should produce fairly well. What we know for sure, is he will be the best catcher the Mets have had in quite some time.

Andres Gimenez – SS

Andres Gimenez was one of, if not the biggest surprise of the 2020 season. He displayed an elite glove during his rookie season and took over the starting shortstop role from Amed Rosario. His bat was also a surprise, as he slashed .263/.333/.398 with three home runs and 12 RBI. Gimenez also led the team with eight stolen bases despite not being an everyday player the whole season.

If the Mets don’t go out and trade for Francisco Lindor, I expect the Mets to have a platoon of Gimenez and Rosario, unless one really outperforms the other in Spring Training. Gimenez will provide some very good speed and defense at the bottom of the order, which are two things the Mets have lacked on their roster for years.

The reason I have Gimenez starting over Rosario is for his glove and speed. Even if Gimenez struggles at the plate, he can provide so much value in the field and on the base paths. Gimenez is a far better fielder than Rosario, and while both have tremendous speed, Gimenez stole eight bases while Rosario did not steal one.

Furthermore, when Rosario does not hit, he does absolutely nothing productive offensively. He drew a total of four walks in 143 at-bats and didn’t draw one until August 31st, more than a month into the season. At that time, he was the everyday shortstop.

I believe Rosario has more potential of the two, but the Mets don’t really need the firepower at the bottom of the order. What they do need is a steady glove who can provide speed and Gimenez can do both very well.

I do believe Rosario gets the starts against the lefties, and Gimenez will get a majority of the starts against the right-handers. The only way I see this changing is if one gets red hot or if they acquire Francisco Lindor.

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If Gimenez can produce numbers similar to the ones he put up this past season, I believe the Mets will be more than satisfied. This lineup is so deep already, they can afford to have a defensive and speed minded player rounding out the order.