Mets Trade Profile: Would Kris Bryant be a good fit in Queens?

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 26: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs hits a grand slam in the third inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2020 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 26: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs hits a grand slam in the third inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2020 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
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Is Kris Bryant a fit for the New York Mets? Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Is Kris Bryant a fit for the New York Mets? Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /

Since Steve Cohen officially became the owner of the New York Mets the team has been connected to not only every major free agent but every major player on the trade block. What about Kris Bryant?

One trade target that is intriguing for the New York Mets franchise is Chicago Cubs third baseman, Kris Bryant. The Cubs are looking to trade some players away and there has been talk about the Cubs doing a reset. This could be an opportunity for the Mets to make a move.

The Mets have a mid-level need at third base. They can play several players there like J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil, or Andres Gimenez but they could definitely benefit from upgrading at that position.

There are a few external options and one of them is Kris Bryant who is in his last year of arbitration, projected to make around $18.6 million.

Bryant is an interesting case because for some reason he is not viewed as highly as he was when he first came into the league. The 28-year-old hit the ground running in 2015 winning the NL Rookie of the Year award and then following that up with an NL MVP award in 2016.

Recently, however, Bryant has been getting a bad rap due to an injury in 2018 and a shortened season in 2020 due to the pandemic.

So, the question becomes is Kris Bryant a good player for the Mets to target in the trade market? We will break down Bryant’s case in this article and see if Bryant is the right move or not.

Is Bryant’s offensive profile a fit for the Mets?

Kris Bryant is one of the better right-handed hitters in the National League but recently there has been some souring on him most likely due to what looks like below-average performances in 2 of the last 3 seasons, but is that true?

As it was said earlier Bryant took the league by storm in 2015 winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2015 and NL MVP in 2016 which helped lead the Cubs to their first World Championship in over 100 years.

Additionally, in Bryant’s first three years he hit to a line of .288/.388/.527/.915 with 210 extra-base hits and 274 RBIs. That is MVP level numbers and a player you want on your team.

So then why the souring on Bryant? That could be most likely attributed to recency bias. From 2018 to 2020 Bryant has played more than 75% of the season’s games only once in the last three seasons.

Bryant was injured in 2018 but played ok despite missing 60 games but the biggest part of this recency bias is the 2020 season. In the shortened 2020 season Bryant only played 34 of a possible 60 games and his offensive production was very subpar.

Bryant hit to a line of .209/.293/.351/.644 with only 10 extra-base hits and 11 RBIs.

Could this be a sign of what is to come going forward or is it a fluke due to an abnormal season? I tend to believe it is a fluke and not the norm going forward. Why do I believe this? Well, Bryant hit 25+ home runs in all of his healthy full seasons, 100+ RBIs in three of his four healthy full seasons, and .360 OBP in every season before 2020. In addition, Bryant has a WAR of 4.8 or higher in every healthy full season. The talent is there, and the production is there save for 1 season and 2020.

What the recency bias really does in my opinion is it makes it potentially cheaper to acquire Bryant as the rental he is coming off a really bad season and is a rental for the 2021 season.

Offensively Bryant looks like a good fit for the Mets but what about defensively? Is Bryant a good fit for the Mets defensively?

Sep 27, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (17) throws out Chicago White Sox second baseman Nick Madrigal (not pictured) during the third inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 27, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (17) throws out Chicago White Sox second baseman Nick Madrigal (not pictured) during the third inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /

Is Bryant’s defensive profile a fit for the Mets?

Kris Bryant is a third baseman…kind of. Bryant mostly plays third base for the Cubs but over the last few years, the Cubs have been playing Bryant in the outfield in addition to third base.

The question is why the change of position even in a part-time role?

I asked myself this same question and in looking at Bryant’s defensive statistics it became more clear.

Bryant has a career .950 fielding percentage at third base which is not the greatest. For context, Bryant’s fielding percentage would rank 156 all-time among third basemen. Not to pile on but for comparison players like Kyle Seager, Justin Turner, and even Todd Frazier, yes Todd Frazier have a higher career fielding percentage than Bryant.

Additionally, Bryant has -14 defensive runs saved (DRS) at third base in his career and he has +6 DRS in the outfield in his career. The question becomes what is his long-term position? Is it third base or is it the outfield?

Verdict

If his long-term position is a corner outfield position, then the Mets should have zero interest in trading for Bryant even with his offensive potential. The Mets have Michael Conforto in right field hopefully for the next decade and most likely Brandon Nimmo in left field. They do not have a spot for Bryant in the outfield.

If his long-term position is third base then Bryant makes more sense to trade for but his price tag will be dependent on which offensive version of Kris Bryant you are getting.

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The way I would approach a possible trade for Kris Bryant is if the Mets miss out on Francisco Lindor and Nolan Arenado then the Mets should inquire about Bryant but I believe there are better fits for the Mets on the trade market at the moment than Kris Bryant.

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