Will the Mets stay under the luxury tax threshold with Steve Cohen?

Now that Marcus Stroman accepted his qualifying offer, how could the New York Mets fill out the rest of their roster?

The first domino of the new New York Mets era fell on Wednesday after Marcus Stroman accepted the $18.9M qualifying offer the team extended him. A surprise to many across the league, Stroman opted to stay in New York rather than test a rather decrepit market for free agents. The first of what is presumed to be a bevy of moves for the new regime, the Mets answered one of the glaring questions about their rotation heading into next season.

There’s still work to be done, however, and based on what new team owner Steve Cohen said in his first press conference, it doesn’t sound as though the Mets will be blowing passed the luxury tax. So what does that mean then for the rest of the winter? New York is expected to be aggressive in both free agency and via trade, but how should the Mets fill out the rest of the rotation, while also finding an answer for the bullpen, centerfield and behind the plate, while also staying under the luxury tax?

Despite Cohen’s comment about not spending like “drunken sailors”, there’s nothing to indicate that the Mets are vehemently against going above the luxury tax. Considering that Cohen’s plans are to spend like a big market team and the Red Sox, Yankees & Cubs all were over the luxury tax in 2019, the Mets could very well find themselves over that threshold. However, for the sake of argument, consider how the Mets could construct the rest of their roster without going over the $210M luxury tax in 2021.

Based on the latest projections, the Mets have a payroll of about $162M, which would leave them with about roughly $48M to add this offseason without going over the luxury tax. Again, this isn’t to say the Mets will stay below that threshold, but rather, examining what it would look like to fill the remaining needs if they hypothetically wanted to stay under $210M.

The Mets have been linked to both J.T. Realmuto and James McCann this offseason

Unless the Mets get creative with a trade, the two names at the catcher position which they’ve been linked to have been J.T. Realmuto and James McCann. Since most are predicting Realmuto to land with the Mets, we’ll assume he inks a deal to play in Flushing. It was rumored that Realmuto was seeking a contract valued at $200M; that ain’t happening.

Going with the predictions that most have J.T. signing for, a contract in the range of five years/ $125M would have the Mets paying him around $25M per season, assuming the deal isn’t backloaded. Adding Realmuto to the roster would take the payroll up to about $187M, leaving them with roughly $23M to spend on fixing the other holes.

If the Mets didn’t go the Realmuto route and decided to opt for McCann, that number obviously changes. Predicted to sign a two-year deal for about $20M, the Mets would only be adding $10M to their payroll and that would leave them with almost $40M to plug holes that remain on their roster.

Clearly the superior player, Realmuto is who the Mets should be pursuing to be behind the plate for the next few years. Given that the DH is likely to stay for 2021, and if not, then certainly for 2022, you could possibly stretch productive years from Realmuto by allowing him to slot into DH spot more frequently and giving his body a break.

However, if the front office is confident that Francisco Alvarez can be a productive major league player, then perhaps McCann makes more sense for them over two years and then bringing Alvarez up, while allocating their funds in other areas.

There have also been rumblings of possibly singing Yadier Molina to a one-year deal, but that seems to be an alternative if the Mets are unable to secure Realmuto or McCann. If the Mets did end up going that route, they’d figure to sign him for something in the range of $8-10M, which would be about the same as what McCann would add to the payroll.

With Marcus Stroman returning in 2021, how will the Mets fill out the rest of their rotation?

It’s no secret that the Sandy Alderson-Trevor Bauer love affair is something the fanbase is desperately hoping materializes into a deal that brings the Cy Young winner to Flushing. No doubt, Bauer and deGrom at the top of the rotation would leave the Mets as a team to be feared, especially in a playoff series. There’s also indications that it could be a real possibility. The question becomes if the Mets do make a run at Bauer, what would it take to land him?

Bauer was rumored to be inclined to sign a one-year deal, but having just won his first ever Cy Young, his stock will most likely never be higher, even in this market. That being said, some predict him joining a team on a deal in the range of $120-130M over four years. This obviously works out to a higher AAV ($30-32M/year). Whether it was one year or four, the yearly payout for Bauer will almost certainly be no less than $30M per year, which right now would put the Mets at a payroll of about $190M. This would leave them with about 20 million left to fill out their roster and that’s without having signed any of the aforementioned players like Springer, Realmuto or their cheaper alternatives.

If the Mets didn’t want to go to the Bauer route and spread that money across multiple players, they certainly could do so by looking at the likes of Charlie Morton, Taijuan Walker, Masahiro Tanaka or Jake Odorizzi; all names the Mets have been linked to this offseason. Based on the contract projections of these players, the Mets could conceivably sign Morton, Tanaka and Odorizzi for the price that it would cost to pay for one year of Bauer.

The question then becomes, do the Mets find it more valuable to use up most of their remaining payroll for one, top-tier pitcher to compliment deGrom or do they allocate their money to lesser valued arms that are still valuable and fill out the rest of their rotation?

It’s hard to resist the idea of a rotation consisting of deGrom, Bauer, Stroman and Noah Syndergaard. However, it might behoove the Mets, in this situation, to spread their money around a bit and get a few pitchers while also being able to bring in a player like Springer.

Given the Mets willingness to spend, but also being wise in doing so, here’s what the roster could conceivably look like if the team stays under the luxury tax

If the Mets new president of baseball operation is under orders from Cohen and Alderson to stay under the luxury tax, how could the Mets do it while filling all the holes in their roster?

The Mets are certain to sign a big ticket free agent, the question just remains which one. It appears that George Springer right now makes the most sense for this team. He answers the centerfield problem while also adding a right-handed power bat in the lineup.

While the Bauer show in Queens would be fun, and certainly remains plausible, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he ended up somewhere other than New York. There are arms to be had both via trade, as well as free agency and it appears that the Mets are looking to fill multiple holes this offseason.

By adding James McCann, George Springer, Masahiro Tanaka all at their projected contracts ($48M annually), they’d be right at the $210M mark. Now the question becomes is that enough? Relievers like Liam Hendriks and Brad Hand are still available and the Mets will certainly be looking to upgrade their bullpen with at least one external option.

Something important to note as well is that there’s reason to believe the Mets could non-tender Steven Matz and save almost $6M in salary. Matz took a huge step back last year and almost certainly would end up in the bullpen. Does Alderson see it as sensible to pay that money for Matz to be in a bullpen role? Probably not.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Mets have two players set to be free agents at the end of next season in Michael Conforto and  Syndergaard. The belief was that with new ownership, the team would look to possibly extend them before hitting the open market. If that’s the case, the Mets would be adding even more to their payroll this year unless the deal didn’t kick in until 2022.

There’s also the possibility that Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis or Brandon Nimmo could be moved this offseason. It isn’t inevitable, but again, the thinking seems to be that the Mets are going to be active on the trade market and if the $4M that’s projected to be paid to Nimmo or the $2M projected for Rosario and Davis are offsetting the cost of say a Joe Musgrove, the Mets could find themselves in a position where they’re answering questions in their roster without having to pay the luxury tax.

Want your voice heard? Join the Rising Apple team!

Write for us!

The good news is that no matter how the team is constructed heading into 2021, the days of having to shop in the freezer section for free agents seems to be far off in the rear view mirror.