Will the Mets stay under the luxury tax threshold with Steve Cohen?

Now that Marcus Stroman accepted his qualifying offer, how could the New York Mets fill out the rest of their roster?

The first domino of the new New York Mets era fell on Wednesday after Marcus Stroman accepted the $18.9M qualifying offer the team extended him. A surprise to many across the league, Stroman opted to stay in New York rather than test a rather decrepit market for free agents. The first of what is presumed to be a bevy of moves for the new regime, the Mets answered one of the glaring questions about their rotation heading into next season.

There’s still work to be done, however, and based on what new team owner Steve Cohen said in his first press conference, it doesn’t sound as though the Mets will be blowing passed the luxury tax. So what does that mean then for the rest of the winter? New York is expected to be aggressive in both free agency and via trade, but how should the Mets fill out the rest of the rotation, while also finding an answer for the bullpen, centerfield and behind the plate, while also staying under the luxury tax?

Despite Cohen’s comment about not spending like “drunken sailors”, there’s nothing to indicate that the Mets are vehemently against going above the luxury tax. Considering that Cohen’s plans are to spend like a big market team and the Red Sox, Yankees & Cubs all were over the luxury tax in 2019, the Mets could very well find themselves over that threshold. However, for the sake of argument, consider how the Mets could construct the rest of their roster without going over the $210M luxury tax in 2021.

Based on the latest projections, the Mets have a payroll of about $162M, which would leave them with about roughly $48M to add this offseason without going over the luxury tax. Again, this isn’t to say the Mets will stay below that threshold, but rather, examining what it would look like to fill the remaining needs if they hypothetically wanted to stay under $210M.

The Mets are reportedly in the market for a ‘star outfielder’, which naturally points to George Springer

The options in free agency for filling the hole in centerfield for the Mets are slim. The two names the team have been connected to the most are George Springer and Jackie Bradley, Jr. While Bradley is still a very good defensive centerfielder, offensively, he’s been pretty below average for his career. Bradley also doesn’t classify as a star, which signifies that the Mets do have their sights set on Springer and rightfully so.

With an OPS of .900 and an almost 2.0 WAR, Springer was productive last year both in the regular season and in the playoffs. At 30, he still projects to be an above average defensive centerfielder for a few more years before he eventually slides to a corner outfield position.

According to predictions, Springer could sign a five year deal worth $125M, just like the one predicted to be signed by Realmuto. These two contracts alone would put the Mets over the luxury tax, which should be an indication that the Mets probably aren’t going to sign two major free agents.

With signs pointing to the Mets wanting a star outfielder, it seems most likely that Springer is a more reasonable option over Realmuto, which wouldn’t be feasible if the Mets wanted to fill other holes and stay under the luxury tax.

If the Mets didn’t land Springer, they could go for the cheaper option in Bradley. If signed for what has been projected, Bradley would cost $8M a year, leaving the Mets with much more wiggle room. Although, Bradley seems much more unlikely to man center next season.

With Marcus Stroman returning in 2021, how will the Mets fill out the rest of their rotation?

It’s no secret that the Sandy Alderson-Trevor Bauer love affair is something the fanbase is desperately hoping materializes into a deal that brings the Cy Young winner to Flushing. No doubt, Bauer and deGrom at the top of the rotation would leave the Mets as a team to be feared, especially in a playoff series. There’s also indications that it could be a real possibility. The question becomes if the Mets do make a run at Bauer, what would it take to land him?

Bauer was rumored to be inclined to sign a one-year deal, but having just won his first ever Cy Young, his stock will most likely never be higher, even in this market. That being said, some predict him joining a team on a deal in the range of $120-130M over four years. This obviously works out to a higher AAV ($30-32M/year). Whether it was one year or four, the yearly payout for Bauer will almost certainly be no less than $30M per year, which right now would put the Mets at a payroll of about $190M. This would leave them with about 20 million left to fill out their roster and that’s without having signed any of the aforementioned players like Springer, Realmuto or their cheaper alternatives.

If the Mets didn’t want to go to the Bauer route and spread that money across multiple players, they certainly could do so by looking at the likes of Charlie Morton, Taijuan Walker, Masahiro Tanaka or Jake Odorizzi; all names the Mets have been linked to this offseason. Based on the contract projections of these players, the Mets could conceivably sign Morton, Tanaka and Odorizzi for the price that it would cost to pay for one year of Bauer.

The question then becomes, do the Mets find it more valuable to use up most of their remaining payroll for one, top-tier pitcher to compliment deGrom or do they allocate their money to lesser valued arms that are still valuable and fill out the rest of their rotation?

It’s hard to resist the idea of a rotation consisting of deGrom, Bauer, Stroman and Noah Syndergaard. However, it might behoove the Mets, in this situation, to spread their money around a bit and get a few pitchers while also being able to bring in a player like Springer.

Given the Mets willingness to spend, but also being wise in doing so, here’s what the roster could conceivably look like if the team stays under the luxury tax

If the Mets new president of baseball operation is under orders from Cohen and Alderson to stay under the luxury tax, how could the Mets do it while filling all the holes in their roster?

The Mets are certain to sign a big ticket free agent, the question just remains which one. It appears that George Springer right now makes the most sense for this team. He answers the centerfield problem while also adding a right-handed power bat in the lineup.

While the Bauer show in Queens would be fun, and certainly remains plausible, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he ended up somewhere other than New York. There are arms to be had both via trade, as well as free agency and it appears that the Mets are looking to fill multiple holes this offseason.

By adding James McCann, George Springer, Masahiro Tanaka all at their projected contracts ($48M annually), they’d be right at the $210M mark. Now the question becomes is that enough? Relievers like Liam Hendriks and Brad Hand are still available and the Mets will certainly be looking to upgrade their bullpen with at least one external option.

Something important to note as well is that there’s reason to believe the Mets could non-tender Steven Matz and save almost $6M in salary. Matz took a huge step back last year and almost certainly would end up in the bullpen. Does Alderson see it as sensible to pay that money for Matz to be in a bullpen role? Probably not.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Mets have two players set to be free agents at the end of next season in Michael Conforto and  Syndergaard. The belief was that with new ownership, the team would look to possibly extend them before hitting the open market. If that’s the case, the Mets would be adding even more to their payroll this year unless the deal didn’t kick in until 2022.

There’s also the possibility that Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis or Brandon Nimmo could be moved this offseason. It isn’t inevitable, but again, the thinking seems to be that the Mets are going to be active on the trade market and if the $4M that’s projected to be paid to Nimmo or the $2M projected for Rosario and Davis are offsetting the cost of say a Joe Musgrove, the Mets could find themselves in a position where they’re answering questions in their roster without having to pay the luxury tax.

Want your voice heard? Join the Rising Apple team!

Write for us!

The good news is that no matter how the team is constructed heading into 2021, the days of having to shop in the freezer section for free agents seems to be far off in the rear view mirror.