Mets should make a serious run to sign Masahiro Tanaka

Sep 11, 2020; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (19) pitches during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 11, 2020; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (19) pitches during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports /
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The New York Mets need several starting rotation upgrades. Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka offers stability and dependability, which makes him an appealing target for the Mets.

The worst kept secret in Major League Baseball right now is that the New York Mets starting rotation is in desperate need of help. Their putrid performance in 2020 is a dolorous and disheartening tale replete with misfortune and underperformance.

Apart from Jacob deGrom’s expected brilliance, the Mets received hardly any help from their other starters. Marcus Stroman chose to opt out of the season. Noah Syndergaard was out for the year due to a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. New acquisitions Michael Wacha and Rick Procello struggled, and Steven Matz looked as though he had forgotten how to pitch.

The result was that the Mets, despite having one of the best offenses in the league, not only failed to make the postseason but finished tied for last place in the National League East. Therefore, the Mets should scour the market for dependable starters who have a track record of big league success. They need pitchers who are reliable, dependable, and have a track record of consistently performing well.

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Enter Masahiro Tanaka.

From 2007 to 2013, Tanaka was one of the best Japanese pitchers in the Nippon Professional Baseball Pacific League. In his last season with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, Tanaka posted a 24–1 record with a 1.27 ERA. After being posted by the Golden Eagles in 2013, he inked a seven-year deal worth $155 million with the New York Yankees, as reported by MLB.com. At the time he received the contract, this was the fifth-highest deal ever given to a pitcher. During his time with the Yankees, Tanaka compiled a 78–46 record 3.74 ERA and a 1.130 WHIP.

Tanaka may no longer be the ace of a starting rotation, but he would slot in well in the middle of the rotation. Tanaka finished 2020 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.167 WHIP, which is a decent return for a mid-rotation starter.

Tanaka had a rough 2019, but his 2020 season showed encouraging trends in the type of contact he was inducing with his pitches. In 2019, his Hard% (a measure of batters who hit Tanaka’s pitches with an above-average exit velocity) decreased nine percentage points (39.1% to 30.1%). He also induced more soft contact (16.4% to 22.4%), suggesting that the quality of pitches he threw was better than in 2019.

Another interesting observation about Tanaka was his willingness to throw more sliders and changeups this season at the expense of his split-fingered fastball. The results were rather good: Tanaka’s offspeed pitches resulted in more swings and misses and culminated in close to a 4% increase from 2019. It is another indicator that his offspeed pitches still have their zip, and that he can control and deploy them effectively.

Tanaka’s fastball also remains as reliable as ever. When pitchers age, they are susceptible to losing velocity on their fastball. This is currently not the case with Tanaka. His fastball velocity in 2020 was faster in 2020 (92.7 mph) than it was in 2019 (91.7 mph), bucking a trend that most pitchers witness in their thirties.

The New York Post reported that some scouts believe that Tanaka could command a two- or three-year deal at around $12 million a season. If that is all it would take to sign Tanaka, then the Mets should not hesitate to sign him. Tanaka has a proven record and showed in 2020 that he can still be a productive starting pitcher.

The Mets know that they need better starting pitching in 2021 if they want to contend. They also know that Trevor Bauer, the top free agent pitcher on the market, will have plenty of suitors. Considering the team’s numerous holes in the rotation, it would be prudent for them to not put all their eggs in the Trevor Bauer basket.

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Signing Tanaka improves the rotation immediately without tying up the team’s financial resources for them to pursue high-profile free agents.