Mets: Five steps to construct the perfect bullpen in 2021
The New York Mets bullpen has shown signs of improvement in 2020, but in 2021, they have a chance to build a much more dynamic relief corps.
New York Mets fans were optimistic about their bullpen situation when the 2020 season began. Not only did the team have the benefit of an unusually deep starting rotation consisting of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Stephen Matz, Rick Porcello, and Michael Wacha to help carry the pitching load, but they also had a multitude of dynamic relievers.
Stars like Edwin Diaz and Seth Lugo led the way with arms like Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson available as complementary options. Things seemed even more secure when the team added All-Star Dellin Betances to the mix.
However, as the shortened season reached the half-way mark, things have been disastrous. The starting rotation was demolished by a Syndergaard injury, Stroman opt-out, and poor performances by Porcello and Wacha. This placed undue pressure on the bullpen.
So far this season, Lugo has shifted roles, Diaz ha lost his closer job, Betances has a high ERA, and the unit ranks 24th in bullpen WAR. It has been a mess. There is, however, still hope for a building a dominant pen before the 2021 season begins. Here are five realistic steps the Mets can take to go from the bottom to the top:
Step #1: Make Seth Lugo the closer
Mets fans are in on a secret that casual MLB fans seem unaware of: Seth Lugo is a fantastic pitcher! The fact that he has bounced from setup man, to spot closer, to starter-in-training has caused his excellent production to be overlooked by many. He is not among anyone’s list of best relievers. He is likely not even owned in your fantasy baseball league.
However, the fact remains that Lugo is great at his job. He has posted an ERA at or below 2.70 in each of the past three seasons and he has been proficient in every role assigned to him. While the Mets would benefit from another good starter, Lugo’s best role is as the closer of the future.
The rotating door of closers needs to stop. Lugo’s spits indicate that he would be a capable option as the primary option at the end of games. While some organizations have used advanced metrics to shift their thinking and deploy their best reliever in the highest leverage late-game situation, I believe that the Mets would be wise to employ a traditional closer. And their best reliever seems to be the ideal man for the job.
Step #2: Prepare Edwin Diaz for a role in high-leverage, late-innings situations
Why should the Mets lock Lugo into the closer role instead of using him more strategically? Because they happen to have another interesting weapon in their bullpen.
Diaz has largely been a bust since the trade that brought him from Seattle to Flushing. The former All-Star and AL saves leader has been a shell of his dominant self since arriving on the Mets. After recording a league-high 57 saves in 2018, he posted a measly 26 in 2019 and just one before losing his closer job in 2020. This is hardly the production the Mets expected from the centerpiece of their blockbuster trade.
However, there is reason for optimism. While Diaz may never recapture his 50+ save form, there is reason to believe he has turned a corner. The former Reliever of the Year award recipient has rebounded from a disastrous start to the season by posting a tidy 2.53 ERA and 24 strikeouts in just 10.2 innings of work in 2020. This is a ridiculously small sample size, it shows that there is still potential for Diaz to be a valuable weapon.
If the Mets use Lugo as the closer, they will still need a capable arm to face the heart of the opposing lineup late in games. Diaz is the perfect man for this job.
Being separated from the pressures of 9th inning work seems to have helped the 26-year-old regain his confidence and rhythm. There is no reason for the Mets to mess with this formula. If Diaz can pitch around the top hitters in the 7th or 8th innings and retain his sub-2.50 ERA, he can provide the help the Mets need.
Step #3: Sign quality reliever (Blake Treinen)
While I am much more optimistic about Diaz’s potential than many Mets fans, I am not willing to move forward without hedging my bet. Lugo is as consistent and reliable as they come. Diaz is exactly the opposite. It will be important for New York to add another capable arm that is capable of stepping up when needed.
There are a number of interesting options that could be available. Stars like Alex Colome, Ken Giles, Kirby Yates, Brand Hand, Blake Treinen, and Liam Hendricks are all set to become free agents at the end of the season. Players like Will Smith, Greg Holland, Felipe Vazquez, and Mychal Givens are all relievers mentioned as trade possibilities as well.
A player with closer experience would be a major weapon and insurance policy in the event either Lugo or Diaz struggle or suffer an injury. However, players like Yates, Hand, and Hendricks will all have a hefty price tag. It seems like the Mets would be better suited for a middle-grade, less expensive option.
Giles is coming off an injury-laden season and will be over 30 years old by the time the 2021 season begins. He would be a great weapon.
However, the Mets have larger holes to fill outside the bullpen. And they are notoriously thrifty with their cash. This makes a player like Treinen a much more realistic option. The former Athletics’ closer is having a resurgence as a valuable member of the Dodgers bullpen this season. His ERA is down to a tidy 1.38 and he has shown he still has the ability to miss bats.
His disastrous 2019 season, coupled with his age (32) should place him into the Mets price range. Brodie Van Wagenen should pursue Treinen with hopes of converting him into the Mets’ equivalent of Zack Britton.
Step #4: Trade for a lefty reliever
Justin Wilson has been a solid lefty, but he is a pending free agent. Fellow southpaws Daniel Zamora and Chasen Shreve are largely irrelevant. If the Mets hope to revamp their bullpen, they will need to add another left-handed player.
Could the Mets open the checkbook and sign Britton (if available), a lefty, and address other needs? Absolutely! Will they? They’re the Mets. So realistically, no…
However, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been proficient at orchestrating trades. This is likely the most realistic avenue for making an addition. Specifically, a player like Jake Diekman of the Royals would be an ideal target. He is a bit older (3#) and his counting stats are less than stellar. But the advanced metrics show he has pitched better than his numbers indicate. He would be a valuable addition that could be acquired at a very reasonable price.
Step #5: Clean up the remaining bullpen
If the Mets did sign Britton and add Diekman, it would almost certainly mean a departure of Betances. If Betances is able to shake off the injury rust and return to form, he may join Britton as an option for the future. However, in this scenario, he will likely be a casualty.
I’ve seen enough encouraging signs from Familia this season to retain his services moving forward. He seems to value pitching for the Mets organization. And the team can use him. If the Mets make these suggested additions, it would also make Familia one of the most dangerous 6th-7th inning options in the league.
Justin Wilson and Brad Brach are both set to enter free agency. Both have performed well enough to consider resigning. But if the team’s throughout in filling out the bullpen, neither should be overpaid by the Mets. For the record, I’d prefer Wilson if they were forced to choose.
Robert Gsellman will likely retain his role as a long reliever/spot starter. But he should not be heavily relied upon. Franklyn Kilome is the only other current bullpen member who is particularly interesting.
Players like Corey Oswalt, Walker Lockett, and Paul Sewald will likely fill out the remaining depth as needed. Though in my mind, none should automatically be included in the major league pen.
To recap, the Mets bullpen would include (on normal rest):
- Seth Lugo as the everyday closer,
- Edwin Diaz as the primary setup man (facing heart of the batting order in the 7th or 8th innings),
- Blake Treinen pitching the remaining 7th or 8th inning,
- Jake Diekman as a lefty specialist,
- Jeurys Familia as a wildcard and injury fill-in,
- With the remaining names battling for a spot on the major league roster.
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