Mets: We overrated the starting rotation heading into 2020

High expectations for the 2020 Mets rotation

The Mets suffered several blows to their rotation prior to the commencement of the season. In December Zack Wheeler, who had been an instrumental piece of the starting rotation, signed a long-term deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

In March, the team’s second-best starter, Noah Syndergaard, underwent Tommy John surgery and was ruled out for the entirety of the 2020 season. Marcus Stroman, whom the Mets traded for in July 2019, missed the beginning of the season after suffering a torn left calf muscle but repeatedly said he felt good and was optimistic to return quickly.

Jacob deGrom, coming off his second straight Cy Young-winning season, would headline a strong rotation. High expectations were set for Steven Matz, who was expected to be instrumental. The Mets did also sign both Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha during the offseason.

Even though neither pitcher had been particularly effective in several seasons, the baseball world liked the acquisitions. Porcello is a former Cy Young Award winner and Wacha was regarded as a good pitcher who’s been held back by injuries.

With regard to the bullpen, the signing of Dellin Betances is what propelled the Mets to the top of MLB’s bullpen rankings. Although Jeurys Familia wasn’t as good as he had been in the past and Edwin Diaz struggled greatly in his first year in Queens, many believed the two would bounce back to their normal selves in 2020.

Seth Lugo, who was arguably one of the most dominant relievers in the game last year, and Justin Wilson, who helped carry the bullpen in his debut season in Queens, would get some help. Brad Brach impressed in his few appearances in 2019 and would be back to help and the Mets also added Jared Hughes, who was one of the best relievers in the league for several years.

The reality of what the Mets built

The fact that the Mets have the best pitcher on the planet may have been what led to so many overrating their rotation. deGrom is in a league of his own, but he can’t carry the team to the playoffs by himself. Coupled with the fact that the team doesn’t even win when he’s on the mound, it’s unrealistic and unfair to rely solely on him.

Stroman opting out after looking poised to return to the team served as a dagger to the rotation. Pitching help, to the top of the rotation no less, would not be on the way.

Matz was given the number two starting job and proved that he was not up to the task, even after looking solid in his first two starts of the season. In fact, he’s been so bad that he’s in danger of losing his job as a starter.

Rick Porcello has shown flashes of excellence but has struggled, for the most part. After looking great in his Mets debut, Wacha struggled in his next two starts and, to make matters worse, was subsequently placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation.

The number five spot was given to rookie David Peterson. Peterson has been one of the bright spots of the Mets’ season, so far, posting an impressive 2.91 ERA, 17 strikeouts, 150 ERA+, 4.05 FIP, and 1.154 WHIP in 21.2 IP. However, as has been the trend whenever things are going well for the Mets, Peterson was placed on the IL with left shoulder fatigue.

Prior to the announcement that the two individuals in the organization had tested positive for COVID-19, the rotation looked like this:
deGrom
Porcello
Robert Gsellman
Corey Oswalt
Lugo

This is far from ideal. Let’s shift to the bullpen.

Although the bullpen has been quite good lately, things didn’t look great early on. Until several days into August, the Mets had one of the worst bullpens in the league and the team would be looking at a much better record now had their relievers been able to get it together earlier.

Betances missed the vast majority of the 2019 season due to injury and so far, he’s been pitching like it. Familia has been inconsistent but has struggled, for the most part. It initially looked like nothing had changed with Diaz, but he found success in an early reliever role.

However, Lugo had taken over closing duties but if he is, indeed, being moved to the rotation, Diaz will return to his original role. That could be problematic since he’s still struggling to close out games.

While the bullpen has been solid, it still doesn’t generate much confidence and did get off to a terrible start. However, the Mets’ rotation has become the team’s greatest weakness. The absence of Stroman and Syndergaard as well as the departure of Wheeler have not gone unnoticed and it was unfair to expect the rotation to still be great without them.

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deGrom can only do so much. If the Mets still look competitive by the end of August, general manager Brodie van Wagenen may very well be forced to acquire a starter at the deadline.