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NY Mets: Four early starting pitcher trade targets for the 2020 season
The New York Mets could go looking for starting pitcher help this year. Fortunately, these four names may be available to help.
Going into the 2020 season, there was an expectation that the New York Mets would be contenders. After an 86-76 2019 season and a 46-26 second half, the Mets looked poised to build off of that for a full season. However, pitching seems to be a clear issue. Yes, we are just six games into the shortened 2020 season but the holes are glaring.
Back in March, Noah Syndergaard tore his UCL ending his 2020 season. A big blow to the rotation that already lost Zack Wheeler this past offseason. Then right before the season started, Marcus Stroman, the teams presumed number 2 starter following Syndergaard’s injury, was placed on the injured list with a torn left calf muscle and will be out for a significant amount of time.
This leaves the Mets rotation with Jacob deGrom and a bunch of question marks. Not the ideal spot a contender wants to be in.
deGrom has won back to back Cy Young Awards and is clearly the best pitcher in baseball. He leads this rotation which is now followed by Steven Matz, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, and David Peterson. Matz was fantastic in his first start of the season against the Braves and is coming off of a very solid second half of the 2019 season in which he pitched to a 3.52 ERA but he has yet to be consistent for a prolonged period of time in his Mets career.
Porcello, the 2016 American League Cy Young Award Winner, is coming off of a season in which he had the worst ERA among qualified starters and was lit up by the Braves in his first start lasting just two innings allowing seven runs. Wacha was also signed this past offseason but has battled injuries the last couple of years and hasn’t really pitched well since his breakout season in 2015 when he was an all-star and won 17 games.
Lastly, David Peterson just made his first major league start this past Tuesday at Fenway Park. Yes, he did pitch well but it’s hard to believe someone who has yet to throw an inning in AAA will continue to thrive on the major league level.
To sum up, if the Mets want to contend in 2020, they will need to upgrade their rotation. There are too many question marks for a team that already has a bullpen in which they cannot rely upon on most nights. However, upgrading this rotation is not so easy.
The Mets farm system is very depleted after trading away guys like Jared Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Anthony Kay, and Simeon Woods-Richardson. With that in mind, the guys who will be listed are not huge names as the Mets likely won’t want to get rid of more highly touted prospects.
Fortunately, these four starting pitchers I believe can make the Mets better for the 2020 season and in some cases, beyond that.
Matthew Boyd
The ace of the Detroit Tigers staff drew lots of interest from lots of teams during the 2019 season, and for good reason. The Tigers were the worst team in baseball last year and aren’t looking much better for this season or anytime soon. Matthew Boyd is a very solid starter and has team control through the 2022 season. He is absolutely someone the Mets should look into as the only starter they have under control through the 2021 season is deGrom.
Boyd would be a very solid middle of the rotation arm for the Mets. In 2019 he went 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA. Those numbers don’t seem so special. However, the reason Boyd has drawn so much interest is because of his peripherals.
Boyd struck out 238 batters in 185.1 innings last year. The 238 strikeouts were tied for tenth in all of baseball. Boyd also had a 4.76 strikeout to walk rate which was also the tenth best in all of baseball. His real downfall has been the number of home runs given up. Boyd allowed 39 home runs which was the second-highest in all of baseball.
Since Boyd puts guys away and doesn’t walk many, it appears that if he can keep the ball in the ballpark just a little bit better, his numbers would improve drastically. He’d be a great pitcher for the Mets to add but he would likely cost more than anyone else on this list.
Jon Gray
Like the Tigers, the Colorado Rockies also don’t seem to be a contender in the near future. Yes, they have great bats in Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, and many others.
Their issue has always been pitching and since they don’t have many great options in that department, the Rockies will likely be sellers in 2020. One of the guys they might be looking to move is Jon Gray.
Following the 2021 season, Gray will be a free agent so the Rockies might look to capitalize on his value before he becomes just a rental. While pitching in the worst place for a pitcher to pitch, Gray has put up some solid seasons.
Last year, Gray went 11-8 with a 3.84 ERA in 25 starts. He threw 150 innings and struck out 150 so he averaged 9 strikeouts per nine innings which is very solid. The most impressive stat to me was his 1.1 home runs per nine innings. That number was the same as Jack Flaherty who finished fourth in the Cy Young voting last year and the same as Patrick Corbin who is considered to be a very good starting pitcher.
Gray has always had the stuff to succeed he just hasn’t stayed healthy as he’s only made over 30 starts once in a season. This seems like a guy the Mets can buy low on and hope he stays healthy for this year and next.
Joe Musgrove
The main piece in the Gerrit Cole trade might be on the block again in 2020. The Pittsburgh Pirates are not contenders and will get a lot of interest for their ace, Joe Musgrove. In 2019, Musgrove had his first 30 start season and pitched well. He went 11-12 with a 4.44 ERA striking out 157 in 170 innings.
At first glance, these numbers don’t look so great. However, Musgrove had a FIP of 3.82. This means he likely got very unlucky which is the reason his ERA was high.
The Pirates, according to FanGraphs, were 25th in defensive runs saved at -54. They were also dead last in the league with a -54 UZR. The Pirates were awful last year and they certainly did not help Musgrove out. Musgrove allowed just 1.1 home runs per 9 innings, the same amount as Gray and guys like Flaherty and Corbin. He had a 4.03 strikeout to walk rate which was ahead of guys like Lucas Giolito and Zack Wheeler.
He is someone who keeps the ball in the ballpark and doesn’t walk many. He really did just get unlucky last year which explains his high ERA. He would be a solid middle of the rotation arm for the Mets to get this season.
Jeff Samardzija
The 35-year-old is in the final year of his contract with the Giants making $16 million. He is coming off of a very solid 2019 season in which he went 11-12 with a 3.52 ERA. While the base numbers were good, his peripherals weren’t as good as he only struck out 6.9 guys per nine innings and had a FIP at over a run higher at 4.59. Samardzija has been an innings eater his entire career and likely would be a solid fifth starter for the Mets for this season who could give them five or six innings and allow three or four runs.
With the lineup the Mets have, that should be good enough most of the time. Because he’s in a contract year, in his age 35 season, and on a rebuilding team, it will likely take close to nothing to acquire him. However, the Wilpons have always been reluctant to take on the burden of a big contract even if it is just for a third of a season.
All four of these guys would help the Mets for the 2020 season, and three of the four will help next year as well. The Mets have little to no depth and if someone in their current rotation of deGrom, Matz, Porcello, Wacha, and Peterson gets hurt, that will be very bad.
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Because of this, the Mets should add quickly and make an upgrade to a very questionable rotation and push for contention in the 2020 season.