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Mets: Predicting which starting pitcher they re-sign or extend for 2021

By Tim Boyle |
PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 20: Marcus Stroman #0 and Rick Porcello #22 of the New York Mets warm up in the bullpen during the team workout at Clover Park on February 20, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 20: Marcus Stroman #0 and Rick Porcello #22 of the New York Mets warm up in the bullpen during the team workout at Clover Park on February 20, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
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JUPITER, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 22: Marcus Stroman #0 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch in the second inning of a Grapefruit League spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium on February 22, 2020 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
JUPITER, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 22: Marcus Stroman #0 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch in the second inning of a Grapefruit League spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium on February 22, 2020 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

The New York Mets have three starting pitchers set to hit free agency after the 2020 season: Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, and Michael Wacha. Which one is most likely to stick around for 2021?

Noah Syndergaard’s Tommy John Surgery has put the New York Mets in a position of uncertainty even beyond 2020. While the game itself is going through questions itself, when we narrow in on the Mets and their starting rotation, it’s impossible to predict what the 2021 starting rotation will look like.

The main reason for this is that they have only two starters signed through next year. Ace Jacob deGrom and lefty Steven Matz are the only ones aside from Syndergaard who have a contract. Because Syndergaard will likely miss at least the start of the 2021 season, the team will need to look elsewhere.

For 2020, the club has a trio of experienced starters in the final year of their deals. Marcus Stroman is the lone returning player with Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha prepared to make their Mets debut in 2020.

All three are in the final year of their deals and the team is going to need to re-sign or extend at least one. Who will it be?

Marcus Stroman

Stroman is the guy who should command the largest contract of the bunch. Unless Porcello or Wacha put together a season for the ages, it’s Stroman whose wallet will get the fattest.

As a member of the Mets in 2019, Stroman went 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts. Combined with what he did as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, the fiery right-hander was 10-13 with a 3.22 ERA.

Stroman is the kind of pitcher whose reputation may be better than his actual performance. He had down years in both 2016 and 2018. Lifetime, he’s 51-47 with a 3.76 ERA—the ERA suggesting he’s on average close to what he gave the Mets in late 2019.

It would be a dream to have any shot at extending Stroman early. However, it’s tough to imagine him passing up on the chance to have the rest of the league bid on him.

Stroman would be wise to at least test free agency. Whether or not he returns to New York is the bigger question and one we cannot answer right now.

Something to keep in mind with Stroman is that the Mets may feel he can give them more in the future than Syndergaard. For the longest time, it felt like the Mets were saving up to extend Thor. This was at least one way of looking at it when they passed on bringing Zack Wheeler back.

Things have certainly changed a lot since Wheeler left for the Philadelphia Phillies. Syndergaard’s future is far more uncertain. One way for the Mets to ensure they have a top-quality arm in the rotation beyond 2020 is an extension with Stroman.

Will it happen? They’re going to have to throw all of their resources into making him one financially happy man.

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – MARCH 10: Rick Porcello #22 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch during the spring training game against the Houston Astros at FITTEAM Ballpark of The Palm Beaches on March 10, 2020 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – MARCH 10: Rick Porcello #22 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch during the spring training game against the Houston Astros at FITTEAM Ballpark of The Palm Beaches on March 10, 2020 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Rick Porcello

Since joining the Mets, the story with Porcello has been about his relationship with the Mets as a fan growing up. I have no doubt this is genuine. Could it lead to a hometown discount of sorts?

I definitely thing Porcello has the most to gain among these three as far as reputation goes. He has already gotten paid big dollars by the Boston Red Sox. The next time he’s in free agency, money won’t necessarily matter as much as playing where he wants to be.

Without getting into Porcello’s head, I have to imagine location and a chance to win are near the top. The organization he plays with in 2021 may also need to provide him with some other essentials. Like any man in any job, Porcello should strive to have a place where he’s happy.

Since we cannot get into the ins and outs of what Porcello may experience as a member of the Mets organization in 2020, we can only look at possible performance and whether or not his ceiling or floor may warrant a longer deal to stay in New York. It definitely feels possible. And even if he did turn in a fantastic campaign, I think his market will be lighter than Stroman’s because of age and reputation.

Porcello will enter free agency after the 2020 season with his 32nd birthday coming up in December. This isn’t a horrific age for a pitcher to become a free agent, but it’s also not the ideal situation for a player of his status.

Compared to Stroman, I think it’s more likely we see Porcello pitching for this team again in 2021. What about the other guy, Mr. Wacha?

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 20: Michael Wacha #45 of the New York Mets during the team workout at Clover Park on February 20, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 20: Michael Wacha #45 of the New York Mets during the team workout at Clover Park on February 20, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Michael Wacha

Then there’s Wacha. He’ll be under 30 when he does become a free agent again—unless of course, Brodie Van Wagenen gives his former client an early extension. In which case, he’s not getting there.

Wacha’s connection with BVW is what makes him a strong candidate to stay in Flushing beyond 2020. If there’s one thing we have learned about Van Wagenen it’s how much he adores having his former clients on the club.

There is a downside for Wacha and anyone who happened to invest in a jersey of his this winter. By far, he has the most to prove.

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Stroman is a two-time All-Star who compares quite well to Syndergaard. Porcello, while he has had some extremes in his career, does have that 2016 Cy Young Award to fall back on.

Wacha did appear in one All-Star Game back in 2015. This feels like a lifetime ago for the often injury-prone righty.

Wacha’s role with the Mets in 2020 will be as the fourth or fifth starter. The incentive-based contract he received told an obvious story about how much he needs to rebuild his own value. Van Wagenen is providing him with a chance. Beyond this year, it’s anyone’s guess what Wacha’s market may look like.

I do believe there’s a very good chance we see Wacha rebuild his stock and return to the Mets on a multi-year deal over the winter. Of course, he’ll have fewer chances with a shortened 2020 season ahead of us.

Over the winter, Wacha seemed to fall back on a lesser deal because of a limited market for his services. Even a career-year won’t do much more than award him with a multi-year contract worth less than what I suspect Stroman gets.

As a more affordable arm, I think he’s right up the Mets’ alley and someone they would really love to extend or re-sign. First, he needs to go out and pitch to earn the deal.

Next. Five greatest Mets trades for a starting pitcher

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In order, I think we see Wacha, Porcello, and then Stroman as possibilities for the Mets in 2021. One could look at this from the perspective that they’re in reverse order of talent. A more optimistic viewpoint says they are saving up for a bigger fish.

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